River Flood Warning 45, NWS Atlanta, GA

980 
WGUS82 KFFC 181348
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
848 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Big Creek near Cumming affecting Forsyth County.

GAC117-181500-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-220218T1348Z/
/CMGG1.1.ER.220218T0717Z.220218T1030Z.220218T1442Z.UU/
848 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for the Big Creek near Cumming.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:45 AM EST Friday the stage was 6 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river will continue to fall below flood stage
    this morning.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8424 3417 8420 3411 8419 3410 8420
      3410 8425 3411 8424


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1255 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 935 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022/

UPDATE...

While we still look to be with limited instability, there is very
strong directional and speed shear with the frontal system pushing a
convective line with leading stratiform rain into north GA.
Isolated severe potential continues with possible bowing segments
and translated strong to damaging wind. Given the helicity rich
environment, isolated tornadoes could be possible as well this
evening into overnight as the system tracks east and southward.
Outside of the convective threats, the strong gradient winds will
continue to warrant the Wind Advisory across the majority of the
area except parts of east central GA. Have decided to extend it
through 7 AM Friday given how some upstream obs have shown
decently strong winds behind the front. Previous discussion
follows...

00z Aviation update below.

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022/

.Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Friday Night/...

Cold front currently stretching from the eastern Great Lakes back
through the lower Mississippi River Valley. A low pressure system
along the front is located near the Bootheel of Missouri. The low
pressure wave will rapidly move northeast this evening and
overnight, while the front will move east across the Gulf States.
The front should approach the far NW corner of the state just before
or around midnight and will continue southeastward overnight into
early Friday. Showers and thunderstorms along the front are
anticipated, with some storms having the potential to be strong or
even severe, especially across the NW portion of the outlook area.

Wind Advisory: Have further expanded the Wind Advisory. The pressure
gradient has tightened over SE US last few hours and sustained
winds/wind gusts have picked up across much of the CWA. Macon has
already experienced gusts near 35mph today, and expect the potential
for frequent gusts in that range for the remainder of the evening
into the overnight hours across much of the central and southern
CWA. This is supported by some of the newer synoptic and hi-res
guidance. With a 850mb jet streak moving across northern portions of
the sate, wind gusts at the highest elevations (above ~2000 ft) have
the potential to be stronger, with some gusts around 45mph.

Locally Heavy Rainfall: QPF amounts have been fairly consistent from
run to run from yesterday. The highest amounts are still anticipated
across far north Georgia, with one to two inches possible. Some
locally higher amounts are possible. Across the remainder of the
CWA, generally under an inch of QPF is anticipated.

Severe Weather: The models have been very consistent with the timing
of the line of shra/tsra moving through this evening and overnight.
The line should be strongest as it enters NW GA this evening, but
should start losing a bit of steam as it moves south and east of the
metro ATL area. The main mid level and surface forcing with this
system will get shunted to the north and east of GA. However, winds
aloft remain very strong, with and 850mb jet streak still between 65
and 75 kt as it moves across northern portions of the state. Even
showers will have the potential to be gusty...not just
thunderstorms. MLCAPE remains pretty weak, ranging from about 200-
300 j/kg as the line moves through, but if more instability is
realized than currently forecast, the potential for severe weather
could be higher. Especially due to very good low level wind shear
that will be present. The potential for a few severe thunderstorms
continues and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Saturday through Thursday/...

Enjoy the upcoming weekend, as it may be some of the driest days we
see over the next week. Another shortwave rotating over the western
ridge will quickly dive into the eastern CONUS on Saturday. The best
CAA advection will stay to the north of the CWA, but some
reinforcement of the passing cold front will occur keeping winds
from the NW. This will keep our cooler, drier airmass in place for a
little bit longer. Min RHs will likely dip down into the 30s and
20s, possibly lower, which will need to be monitored for potential
fire products, especially in central GA which may not receive as
much rainfall from our current weather system.

The warming trend begins on Sunday. Sfc high pressure moves quickly
to the east and upper level flow goes briefly zonal. Sfc winds move
to the southeast and start bringing back the warm, moist air into
the CWA, though expect some wedging across the NE portion which may
limit temperatures there. By Monday, large, broad trough will be
positioned over the western CONUS, bracketed by a large, upstream
ridge over the eastern Pacific and smaller ridge over the GoM and
southeastern US. This pattern will be mostly locked in place over
the week, meaning broad ascent will be in place across the CWA for
several days on end. Several shortwaves will rotate about the base
of this trough and eject into the Plains where stalled sfc frontal
zone will be located. Ensuing cyclogenesis will act to slowly push
this front south closer and closer to the CWA, with very long term
ensembles hinting that it could approach by the end of the week.
With several days of southerly flow across the south, PWATs are once
again surging to near record values in forecast soundings of ~1.5"
or higher.

Ensembles show a lot of support for the pattern and setup, with
primary differences among members in the amplitude and exact phase
of the trough and upstream ridge over the Pacific, as shown by WPC
cluster analysis. This puts some uncertainty on the QPF, especially
across northern GA. This pattern lends itself to likely having a few
corridors of enhanced rainfall that occur just ahead or along where
the front itself sets up. Changes in the location of that front will
likely be driven by small amplitude and timing differences within
the shortwaves rotating about that trough. The ensembles capture
this effect, with some members/clusters showing much heavier
rainfall across northern GA than others. Current forecast QPF is in
the 3-5" range across several days in the north, but expect changes
to this as we hone in on how this system will evolve in the coming
days.

The other story with this will be the temperatures, as highs towards
the middle of next week will easily be into the 70s, and could get
as high as the mid 80s in portions of central GA for several days if
we get enough breaks in the cloud cover. These are a good 15 degrees
or more higher than average temperatures for February. With cloud
cover in place, nighttime temps won't have the opportunity to drop
much either, and these are running 20 degrees above average. While
it is slightly out of the long term forecast, some hints that a
front may push into the area to bring some relief by the end of the
week.

Lusk

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
A line of SHRA/TSRA continues to move through the forecast area,
with the thin line of TSRA having cleared the ATL sites and
currently sits over CSG/AHN and expected to be over MCN between
07-09Z. Clearing of SHRA expected at ATL sites between 08-09Z,
AHN/CSG by 10-11Z, and MCN by 12Z. Generally MVFR Ceilings with
SCT/ISO IFR expected to begin to erode late Friday morning. Timing
at most sites is 16Z, including ATL, to go from BKN to SCT low
cloud deck, before going FEW250 by Friday afternoon. Winds will
continue to shift out of the NW at 10-15kts with occasional gusts
up to 20kts through 00Z, before weakening to below 10kts
afterwards.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on timing of MVFR erosion Fri morning.
High on all other elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          58  31  60  33 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         50  32  56  33 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     45  26  51  27 /   5   0   0   0
Cartersville    49  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus        59  33  62  35 /  20   0   0   0
Gainesville     53  32  57  33 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           64  33  65  35 /  30   0   0   0
Rome            51  28  58  28 /   5   0   0   0
Peachtree City  53  30  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
Vidalia         69  38  64  39 /  60   5   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...
Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Cherokee...
Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dade...
Dawson...DeKalb...Dooly...Douglas...Fannin...Fayette...Floyd...
Forsyth...Gilmer...Gordon...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...
Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...
Jones...Lamar...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...
Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...
South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Towns...Troup...Union...Upson...Walker...
Walton...Warren...Webster...White...Whitfield...Wilcox...Wilkes.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....Lusk
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
914 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-190215-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
914 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Wind Advisory is in effect through 7 AM Friday morning for much
of north and central Georgia. Gusts up to 35 mph are expected,
with gusts to around 45 mph possible at elevations above 2500
feet.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move through north and
central Georgia through early Friday morning. The main threats
are isolated damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado, primarily
across northwest Georgia. In addition, isolated flash flooding may
occur across far north Georgia where rainfall totals reach an
inch to 1.5 inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Monday through Wednesday will bring chances for rain and a slight
chance for thunderstorms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1246 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

GAZ048>050-058>060-070>072-180615-
Butts GA-Morgan GA-Putnam GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
Greene GA-Newton GA-
1246 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Morgan, northwestern
Putnam, northern Monroe, northwestern Greene, Butts, northwestern
Jones, Jasper, southeastern Newton and northern Lamar Counties
through 115 AM EST...

At 1246 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Madison to near Turtle Cove to Milner, and moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Barnesville, Jackson, Madison, Forsyth, Monticello, Rutledge,
Newborn, Flovilla, Milner, Mansfield, Woodville, Shady Dale,
Buckhead, Stewart, Turtle Cove, Worthville, Wrayswood, Greshamville,
Central Georgia Experiment Stn and Blount.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3336 8351 3302 8381 3307 8425 3338 8395
      3372 8355 3368 8309
TIME...MOT...LOC 0546Z 269DEG 38KT 3362 8353 3339 8387 3310 8417

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
112 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

GAZ071-072-180645-
Monroe GA-Jones GA-
112 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Monroe
and central Jones Counties through 145 AM EST...

At 112 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was near Forsyth, moving east at
60 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Forsyth, Gray, Bradley, Bolingbroke, Wayside, Dames Ferry, Round Oak,
Clinton, Plant Scherer and Jarrell Plantation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3304 8399 3316 8362 3317 8354 3317 8353
      3309 8347 3296 8349 3294 8370 3295 8371
      3295 8373 3294 8373 3292 8397
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 250DEG 52KT 3299 8390

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
115 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

GAZ038-039-049>051-180645-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Morgan GA-Oglethorpe GA-Greene GA-
115 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central Morgan,
northern Greene, northwestern Taliaferro, southwestern Wilkes and
southwestern Oglethorpe Counties through 145 AM EST...

At 115 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was over Greshamville, or 8
miles east of Madison, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Greensboro, Union Point, Woodville, Maxeys, Rayle, Buckhead,
Wrayswood, Greshamville, Daniel Springs, Carey, Swords, Penfield,
Lyneville, Philomath and Carters Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3352 8337 3365 8343 3388 8296 3380 8285
      3364 8285
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 244DEG 51KT 3361 8332

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
145 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

GAZ039-180715-
Wilkes GA-
145 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Wilkes
County through 215 AM EST...

At 145 AM EST, a strong thunderstorm was near Carters Grove, or 7
miles southwest of Washington, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Danburg, Metasville, Celeste and Floral Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3365 8281 3365 8282 3364 8285 3364 8287
      3363 8289 3373 8294 3391 8262 3386 8260
      3387 8258 3387 8257 3384 8258 3383 8260
      3371 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 249DEG 44KT 3369 8285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
150 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

GAZ080-081-091>094-180715-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Peach GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Crawford GA-
150 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Macon,
east central Marion, central Peach, southeastern Crawford, northern
Schley and southern Taylor Counties through 215 AM EST...

At 150 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from Butler to near Doyle, and moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Valley, Buena Vista, Butler, Marshallville, Reynolds, Ideal,
Murrays Crossroads, Whitewater State Park, Nakomis, Rupert, Charing,
Garden Valley, Hicks, Potterville, Tazewell, Doyle, Lee Pope and
Bartlett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 8381 3248 8392 3229 8413 3228 8454
      3259 8428
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 252DEG 48KT 3257 8421 3232 8446

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
252 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

GAZ083-084-095>097-105-107-109-180815-
Wilkinson GA-Dooly GA-Houston GA-Laurens GA-Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-
Twiggs GA-Pulaski GA-
252 AM EST Fri Feb 18 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Laurens,
southern Wilkinson, northwestern Dodge, Pulaski, Twiggs, Dooly,
Bleckley and southern Houston Counties through 315 AM EST...

At 252 AM EST, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Myricks Mill to near Kathleen to Dooling, and
moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 mph wind and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Cochran, Hawkinsville, Vienna, Jeffersonville, Unadilla, Dudley,
Byromville, Pinehurst, Danville, Montrose, Allentown, Dooling,
Marion, Hayneville, Mobley Crossing, Mock Springs, District Path,
Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, Paulk and Yonkers.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Motorists should
slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 8398 3229 8388 3229 8385 3232 8385
      3250 8360 3284 8334 3272 8295 3230 8325
      3212 8356 3212 8361 3209 8361 3204 8369
TIME...MOT...LOC 0752Z 294DEG 28KT 3278 8332 3247 8357 3222 8395

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH