River Flood Warning 128, NWS Atlanta, GA

542 
WGUS82 KFFC 150626
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
126 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...Tennessee...

  Lookout Creek near New England affecting Dade and Hamilton 
  Counties.

GAC083-TNC065-150730-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0128.000000T0000Z-221215T0626Z/
/ENGG1.1.ER.221215T0733Z.221215T1800Z.221216T0515Z.NO/
126 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Lookout Creek near New England.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:00 AM EST Thursday the stage was 11.4 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river was expected to rise above flood stage
    early this morning to a crest of 14 feet this afternoon.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3503 8539 3502 8533 3484 8545 3471 8549
      3473 8556 3487 8553


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
714 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Currently...An expansive cloud shield exists across much of the
state today thanks to the wedge holding steady this afternoon.
This has kept temperatures largely in the 40s and low 50s across
North and Central GA with upper 50s to low 60s across south-
central GA where cloud coverage isn't as high. Latest radar
imagery depicts mainly areas of rain pushing through though the
chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will steady increase
through the afternoon/evening.

A very impressive upper low continues to track east towards the
Great Lakes Region this afternoon. At this sfc, WPC has depicted
this system as an occlusion with a cold front draped south through
the Arklatex and a stationary boundary north of the TN Valley. As
noted by the previous shift, another sfc low has formed near the
ArkLaMiss with similar sfc boundaries extending south and
southeast. These features have been the primary driver for severe
weather across LA/MS/AL this afternoon and could potentially move
into our area tonight though not as high in magnitude. Still
looking at damaging wind gusts being the primary threat but a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out despite the lack of
instability. This is largely contributed to locally enhanced
cyclogenesis in the vicinity of the second sfc low that will be
moving through tonight and the presence of a LLJ.

The heaviest precipitation is still anticipated to occur
overnight. Storm Total Precip has come down a hair and given no
major changes in guidance and no strong signal elected to keep the
current Flood Watch as is. Storm Total Precip is forecast to range
from 1-2" with isolated higher amounts (~3"). Heaviest precip
should be clear of the ATL metro by sunrise with lingering
activity across the southeast through at least lunchtime.
Otherwise, improving conditions are expected by Thursday evening.

As far as temperatures, a slight warming trend is expected tonight
across the southeast ahead of the main line of precip. Lows
tonight will range from the mid 40s across the North to low 60s
across the SE. On Thursday, highs will be in the mid 50s to mid
60s and lows will dip into the 30s.

07

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

The extended forecast starts off dry with a cool high pressure ridge
continuing to build into the area. This ridge stays over the area
through the weekend keeping things dry. It does weaken a bit and we
will see some increased cloud cover Saturday and Sunday. There is a
weak wave which develops over the NW Gulf Friday and moves east
increasing moisture over the Southeastern U.S. through the weekend.
The main part of the wave with the best dynamics and deep layer
moisture stays over the gulf and moves across FL and out over the
Atlantic by Sunday morning. As this wave moves east it will spread
some increased moisture across S GA so did put in a slight chance of
precip for east central GA Sat night.

Looks like our next best chance of precip will be Mon night into
Tuesday as a second wave moves across the northern gulf. This second
wave appears to be a bit further north than the first one as it
does spread decent moisture  across GA. If this does happen we will
see some rain but we may also see some mixed freezing/frozen
precipitation as well. Right now only putting in a slight chance of
precip with some mixed rain and snow for areas North and West of the
ATL area. If this does occur it will be short lived and not
expecting much in the way of accumulations.

Temps cool a bit in the extended portions as we will see mainly
highs in the 40s and 50s with lows in the 20s and 30s each day.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

LIFR to at times VLIFR has been in place across metro TAF sites
and is expected to remain for most of the night. Improvement to
cigs expected to begin in the 10-12Z time period, improving to VFR
by 14-16Z. Other issues will be vsbies hampered by ongoing RA that
could be heavy at times. Could see some TSRA move through,
especially after 04Z. Rain should begin clearing area by 12Z.
Winds will be on side, flipping to northwest with frontal passage
by 09-10Z. Speeds should be 7-12 kts sustained through TAF
period.

//ATL Confidence...Avi Update...
High confidence all elements.

Lusk

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          43  58  35  52 / 100  50   0   0
Atlanta         46  56  36  51 / 100  20   0   0
Blairsville     42  54  29  47 / 100  30   0   0
Cartersville    45  55  32  51 / 100  10   0   0
Columbus        52  59  37  57 /  90  20   0   0
Gainesville     42  56  36  50 / 100  30   0   0
Macon           54  62  36  59 /  80  50   0   0
Rome            45  55  33  52 / 100  10   0   0
Peachtree City  48  57  34  53 / 100  20   0   0
Vidalia         61  69  40  59 /  80  80   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM EST Thursday for GAZ001>005-011-012-019.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Lusk

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
452 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
452 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe, particularly for
central and west central Georgia. The main impacts may include
damaging winds and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of far northwest Georgia.
Rain may be heavy at times with total accumulations of 1.5 to 3
inches, isolated higher amounts may be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Rainfall will continue through Thursday with total rainfall
accumulations of 1.5 to 3 inches. Isolated higher amounts may be
possible. Localized flooding may occur where heavy rain
persists for prolonged periods of time.

A few storms may be severe for portions of east central Georgia.
Gusty winds will be the main threat, however a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.