Flood Watch 1, NWS Atlanta, GA

Banks County, GA, Bartow County, GA, Catoosa County, GA, Chattooga County, GA, Cherokee County, GA, Dade County, GA, Dawson County, GA, Fannin County, GA, Floyd County, GA, Forsyth County, GA, Gilmer County, GA, Gordon County, GA, Hall County, GA, Lumpkin County, GA, Murray County, GA, Pickens County, GA, Towns County, GA, Union County, GA, Walker County, GA, White County, GA, Whitfield County, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
112 AM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022/

..Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022/

Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Forecast remains on track with temps reaching into the mid 50s to
low 60s across N Georgia, with central Georgia making it into the
mid to upper 60s.  Main story for the short term comes on Wednesday
afternoon as CWA enters into SWly flow as frontal system approaches
the area, with model guidance continual progging heaviest axis of
precip just west of the CWA. With that however, QPF has trended up
every so slightly, with highest totals across N and NW Georgia,
between 1.5-2.0".  With lack of recent rainfall and pockets of D0
across N Georgia, not anticipating a flood risk at this time, but if
axis of deformation shifts more east, it could become something to
monitor, particularly for more of the "flashy" river gages of NW
GA. Taking a look in terms of instability, not much to write home
about, with negligible SB/MUCAPE <100 j/kg, decided to leave
thunder out of the grids for now. For more info on the main brunt
of the system pushing in on Thursday, see the long term forecast
discussion below.

Morgan

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Active pattern for the fcst period with the first main influencing
feature being the advancement of the open upper trough wave from
the west and a translated sfc CPF progged for Thursday night into
Friday. Have some increasing rain chances for the northern
majority of the area during the day Thursday, then have more
widespread likely to categorical overnight. While low level
helicity and the bulk shear values are decently strong, the
instability looks to be still limited and elevated so not
expecting much in the way of strong convection but enough to have
slight general thunder mention. Friday will have some continued
rain chances pushing farther SE and the slight thunder potential
could linger into parts of central GA before the front exits later
in the day. QPF has had some adjustments but nothing too notable
with the last update and should have storm totals generally
ranging from a half inch in the SE to 2-3 inches in parts of the
north.

Second main focus is a less confident situation given some lack of
consistency/consensus between the guidance along with some run-
to-run inconsistency as there could be an upper shortwave with
overrunning moisture against a wedge for Saturday into Sunday.
There is some possibility for some mixed p-types in the north for
Saturday night if the wedge is cold enough along and given some
potentially supportive progged thermal profiles, but we have
plenty of time to assess this.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
VFR conditions will slowly deteriorate to MVFR after 22Z, and IFR
by 06Z on the 3rd. East winds will continue to prevail, generally
5-10kts with gusts to 20kts this afternoon. The chance for rain
will increase after 00Z mainly over ATL area.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium to high confidence all elements.

Atwell

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  49  69  58 /  10  40  40  80
Atlanta         60  51  69  55 /  20  40  50  80
Blairsville     50  42  59  50 /  40  70  80  90
Cartersville    59  49  68  50 /  50  60  70  90
Columbus        70  55  75  58 /  10  20  30  80
Gainesville     54  46  65  56 /  30  60  60  80
Macon           71  54  77  61 /   5  10  20  60
Rome            60  51  68  48 /  60  70  80  90
Peachtree City  65  52  71  56 /  20  40  40  80
Vidalia         70  56  77  61 /   0   5   5  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Atwell
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...Atwell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
835 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-030145-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
835 PM EST Tue Feb 1 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Thursday night into Friday afternoon a cold front is expected to
push through the forecast area with periods of heavy rainfall.
Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected, with locally higher
amounts possible across north Georgia. Some localized flooding or
isolated flash flooding could occur, especially around creeks,
small streams, areas that are urbanized, low-lying or have poor
drainage. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible Thursday
night into Friday with some gusty winds possible.

Saturday night into Sunday rainfall will return to the area with
up to half of an inch of precipitation possible. Flurries will be
possible across north Georgia early Sunday morning with little to
no accumulations expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.