Tornado Warning 15, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

206 
WWUS54 KEWX 220047
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
747 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXC287-220115-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-220322T0115Z/
Lee TX-
747 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY...
    
At 747 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Dime Box, or 11 miles northeast of Giddings, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Dime Box and Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3031 9690 3039 9679 3032 9674 3032 9669
      3030 9667 3029 9664 3025 9669 3025 9672
      3024 9674 3020 9674 3018 9676 3017 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 234DEG 38KT 3029 9678 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

BRADY

433 
WWUS54 KEWX 220101
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
801 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXC287-220111-
/O.CAN.KEWX.TO.W.0015.000000T0000Z-220322T0115Z/
Lee TX-
801 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL LEE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3031 9690 3039 9679 3032 9674 3032 9669
      3030 9667 3029 9664 3025 9669 3025 9672
      3024 9674 3020 9674 3018 9676 3017 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 236DEG 27KT 3035 9667 

$$

BRADY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
705 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

.UPDATE...
Please see the 00Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection continues mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor this
evening. Based on radar trends, we will keep TSRA in the forecast
for AUS for the next hour. Some re-development is possible through
this evening, but will monitor radar trends before adding to the
forecast at this time. Hi-res models show development should be
favored east of I-35.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/

UPDATE...

Have updated PoP and weather grids over the next six hours, as
several convective attempts have occurred across the southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande Plains over the last 45 minutes. Main concern
continues to be east of along/east of US 281, however.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022/

.New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

Continue to monitor the potential for severe thunderstorms this
afternoon. 18Z surface observations indicate surface cyclogenesis is
commencing in the Panhandle of Texas as a high-amplitude shortwave
trough/closed low continues to eject into the Big Bend Region. A
complex surface setup has resulted, with the infant surface low
dragging a dryline that has entered Val Verde County. An elevated
dry slot and attendant region of clearing skies leads the surface
dryline, and has progressed to approximately a Kerrville-Uvalde-
Eagle Pass line. These two regions should continue to march east in
tandem through the coming hours, reaching the US 281 corridor by the
mid afternoon hours. This progression will likely prove critical, as
the differential surface heating occurring on either side of the
retreating cloud line, combined with the dynamic forcing and
steepening lapse rates aloft, will provide an impetus for the
initiation of surface-based convection along/east of US 281. Latest
high-res guidance concurs with this picture, suggesting that
initiation is most likely to occur between 4-5 PM. Storms that do
develop are then expected to push east of the I-35/I-37 corridors
through 8 PM this evening.

With the core of the 850 mb low level jet axis/southeasterly low
level flow currently pivoting to the east of the CWA, the phasing
between the highest directional wind shear and likely initiation
zone appears to be slightly out of sync. Hence, the greatest hazard
of concern continues to be large, potentially damaging hail up to
two inches in diameter. SPC has added a moderate risk to its day one
convective outlook across an area north and east of a Hallettsville-
Gonzales-New Braunfels line in light of this threat, however,
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as
additional threats given the remaining shear that will be present
across the region. Have a way to receive watches and warnings later
this afternoon as these storms move through the area.

With cyclogenesis continuing over west-central Oklahoma this
evening/early tonight, southerly flow will continue, particularly to
the east of I-35/I-37. This could act to reinforce the surface
dryline/outflow from any early evening convection, helping to
encourage a second round of thunderstorms. Most likely to occur
along and east of US 77, widespread severe weather is not
anticipated with this potential second batch of thunderstorms.

Once convection vacates the far east later tonight, a cold front
will approach the area. Entering from the northwest, expect this
boundary to be through the I-35 corridor by mid-morning tomorrow,
and out of our far southeastern communities by the lunch hour. No
precipitation is expected with the passage. Gusty northwest winds
will follow the front, leading to Near Critical fire weather
conditions tomorrow. Of highest concern across the Rio Grande
Plains, Winter Garden Region and southern Edwards Plateau, a Fire
Weather Watch has been posted accordingly. Subsequent shifts will
monitor this portion of the short term closely, potentially
upgrading to a Red Flag Warning if necessary.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

The main story for the extended forecast will be elevated to
critical fire weather conditions through at least Sunday. Dry and
breezy northwesterly flow will continue on Wednesday with westerly
flow is expected on Thursday. Breezy southerly flow will return
Friday through Sunday without any appreciable increase in moisture
expected. The most critical time period will be Wednesday and
Thursday as the northwest/west winds will be the strongest with
afternoon humidity values near 10-20 percent. Southerly wind speeds
on Friday will be a bit less with speeds generally at or below 10
mph and only elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
expected then. Southerly speeds will be in the 15 to 20 mph range
this weekend bringing back near critical to critical fire weather
conditions to mainly areas west of the I35 corridor. Highs Wednesday
will be in the 60s and 70s but will warm back into the 80s to near
90 for the western areas by Friday.

AVIATION...18Z TAF Package

This morning's low cigs and visibilities are beginning to improve at
the I-35 aerodromes. DRT has fully recovered to VFR cats, with only
FEW coverage near FL030 remaining. Biggest attention near-term is on
the gusty winds behind a dryline at DRT this afternoon, and
potential convective activity at the I-35 sites through the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Only noteworthy amendment during this
portion of the forecast was to remove the TEMPO +TSRA at SAT and SSF
and replace with a VCTS, given less aggressive convection forecasts
throughout the AM hours in Bexar County. Have preserved said TEMPO
group at AUS, where convection appears more likely. Thunderstorms
should move east of the I-35 terminals by the mid evening hours.
Continue to watch for potential redevelopment overnight, though any
additional storms will likely remain east of I-35. A cold front will
pass through our aerodromes between 09 and 12Z Friday, bringing gusty
northwest winds in its wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              54  70  44  68  43 /  40   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  54  71  42  68  40 /  50  -    0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     52  73  43  71  40 /  40   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            48  65  40  66  39 /  20   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           51  72  44  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        53  68  42  67  40 /  40   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             49  74  40  72  38 /  10   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        53  71  43  69  39 /  40   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   60  72  44  68  41 /  60  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       54  72  45  70  44 /  20   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           54  75  46  73  43 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Dimmit-Edwards-
Frio-Kinney-Maverick-Real-Uvalde-Val Verde-Zavala.

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for Dimmit-Edwards-Frio-Kinney-Maverick-Real-Uvalde-Val Verde-
Zavala.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Edwards-Val Verde.

&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Platt
Long-Term...Oaks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-221000-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
312 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with primary threats of large hail and
tornadoes are possibly this afternoon into early evening. A Red
Flag Warning is in effect for the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande
Plains this afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect this
afternoon for Val Verde and Edwards Counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected to
continue through Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Tuesday
afternoon for the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains. Red Flag
Warnings for critical fire weather conditions may be needed on
additional days. Take care to prevent the start of wildfires.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any severe weather to the NWS.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
709 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXZ207-208-223-220100-
Guadalupe TX-Caldwell TX-Gonzales TX-
709 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Caldwell, eastern
Guadalupe and northwestern Gonzales Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 708 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Kingsbury, or 8 miles southeast of Seguin, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Seguin, Lockhart, Luling, Mustang Ridge, Kingsbury, Niederwald,
Staples, Fentress, Palmeto State Park, Brownsboro, Delhi, Leesville,
Joliet, Tilmon, Stairtown, Belmont, McNeil, McMahan, Lytton Springs
and Ottine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 2937 9775 2945 9797 3001 9773 3006 9767
      2979 9731
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 204DEG 44KT 2953 9784

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

BRADY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
710 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SE ELGIN              30.33N 97.36W
03/21/2022                   BASTROP            TX   PUBLIC

            US 290 BLOCKED OFF NEAR THE ELGIN CITY
            LIMITS DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES.

&&

AQ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
714 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXZ173-220100-
Williamson TX-
714 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Williamson County through 800 PM CDT...

At 714 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Liberty Hill, or 10 miles northwest of Cedar Park, moving northeast
at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Georgetown, Serenada, Leander, Bartlett, Liberty Hill, Jarrell,
Florence, Georgetown Dam, Sun City, Andice, Theon, Walburg,
Schwertner and Seward Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 9763 3078 9740 3055 9788 3057 9789
      3057 9792 3060 9792 3063 9795 3062 9799
      3065 9804 3083 9791 3091 9783
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 228DEG 42KT 3065 9791

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BRADY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
720 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

TXZ173-192>194-220100-
Williamson TX-Bastrop TX-Lee TX-Travis TX-
720 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Williamson, southeastern Travis, northwestern Bastrop and
northwestern Lee Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wyldwood, or 9 miles east of Austin Bergstrom Int Airport, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Taylor, Elgin, Manor, Cedar Creek, Coupland, Wyldwood, Camp Swift,
Hornsby Bend, Webberville, Knobb Springs, Garfield, Blue,
Beyarsville, McDade, Cedar Hills, Noack and Butler.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3052 9718 3046 9715 3049 9710 3046 9704
      3004 9747 3012 9767 3060 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 211DEG 44KT 3017 9752

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

BRADY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
729 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW LULING            29.66N 97.73W
03/21/2022                   GUADALUPE          TX   PUBLIC

            HOME AND TREE DAMAGE REPORTED BETWEEN
            KINGSBURY AND LULING.

&&

AQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
732 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0731 PM     HAIL             4 SE FENTRESS           29.72N 97.73W
03/21/2022  E0.88 INCH       CALDWELL           TX   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL IN STAIRTOWN.

&&

AQ