Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Have allowed the tornado watch previously in effect to expire as of 6
PM CDT. Scattered strong to at times severe thunderstorms are
expected primarily to the east of US 281 through the first half of
tonight along a slowly-advancing frontal boundary, but will begin to
subside following sunset and the onset of nocturnal stabilization in
the boundary layer. Have adjusted PoP and weather grids accordingly,
and have updated our zone forecasts in light of these changes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

Some clearing from earlier along with a convective outflow boundary
moving down from the north is helping shower and thunderstorm
activity develop along the I-35 corridor from Austin northward. The
HRRR model suggests additional development will continue to slowly
develop southward and eastward into the I-35 corridor to near San
Antonio and southeastward into the coastal plains. There has been no
change to the SPC outlook, with a Slight Risk generally along and
north of a Llano to Buda to Bastrop to Round Top line. The Marginal
Risk extends southward to roughly Utopia to Pleasanton to Kenedy
line. We still have plenty of instability over the region and
certainly can't rule out some additional severe storms through this
afternoon and early evening. The chance for severe weather should
decrease by mid to late evening as rain chances become favored for
areas generally east of the I-35 corridor. Shortly after midnight,
we should see showers and storms end across south central Texas.
Overnight lows will be coolest over portions of the Hill Country
where a weak front will help drop low temperatures down near 60
degrees. As you head farther south and west, it will be warmer, with
overnight lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Much warmer temperatures and dry weather are in store on Friday as
highs peak in the lower 90s to near 100 along the Rio Grande, with
heat index values several degrees above the air temperature. It will
be warm and muggy Friday night, with lows in the upper 60s to mid
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

The heat will be out in full force as we head into the weekend with
near-record to record heat expected across much of South-Central
Texas. Shortwave ridging will take over Saturday afternoon and
continue through Mother's Day, with the mercury soaring well into
the 90s for most areas along and east of US-281, and into the 100-
106 range west of US-281. With surface dewpoints in the 60s and 70s
generally along and east of I-35, it will be downright miserable for
many, with heat indices in the 105-110 range. While the humidity
shouldn't be quite as intense out west into the Rio Grande Plains,
Southern Edwards Plateau, and Winter Garden region, rapid mixing
should result in surface temperatures well into the triple digits
both days. Heat Advisories will likely be needed both days as this
early season heat will be our first real taste of summer-like heat
since Sep-Oct 2021. In fact, NAEFS percentiles has a good chunk of
the region in the climatological max for temperatures Saturday and
Sunday.

Mid-level flow should start to flatten out and turn more zonal on
Monday, before shifting to more of a southwesterly flow regime
through midweek. That should set the stage for the possibility of
convection developing over the Hill Country and Southern Edwards
Plateau, as well as over the Rio Grande Plains as SDB storms attempt
to organize and move across the border late Monday and again late
Tuesday. Temperatures will remain quite toasty, with mid to upper
90s for most, with the exception being over the Winter Garden region
and locations along the Rio Grande like Del Rio and Eagle Pass,
where highs should touch the century mark most days.

Despite beneficial rains over the last several days, the forecast
doesn't call for much in the way of rainfall over the next week, and
coinciding with what should be our rainy season along with continued
drought conditions , we are going to miss out on needed rain chances
for much of next week. An upper level low will get cut off and
meander over the SE CONUS, creating a bit of a blocking pattern over
the eastern US. This will limit what has been a fairly progressive
pattern of "troughiness" for the south-central US the last several
weeks. Expect the heat to continue, with high temperatures more
typical of early July than early May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

A line of thunderstorms is moving through the Austin area and will
mean possible thunderstorms at AUS for the next hour or two. Any
storms will produce MVFR conditions at the airport and winds may gust
up to 30 kts. Otherwise, terminals are VFR. There is a slight chance
for thunderstorms in the San Antonio area early this evening, but it
looks like storms will dissipate before they make it that far south.
MVFR fog will develop early Friday morning at AUS and is possible in
the San Antonio area. Visibility will recover by mid-morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Highs for Saturday, May 7th and Sunday, May 8th
Austin Bergstrom.......102 in 1998 .........97 in 2011
Austin Camp Mabry......102 in 1998 .........99 in 1967
San Antonio Int........100 in 1998 ........102 in 1927
Del Rio................106 in 1998 ........103 in 1967

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              64  95  72  96 /  50   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  93  70  96 /  50   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     65  96  70  98 /  50   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            61  93  70  99 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           69 100  73 105 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        62  93  70  96 /  20   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             65  97  71 103 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  95  70  98 /  60   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  94  72  97 /  80   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       67  95  71  99 /  30   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           69  99  73 102 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...Quigley
Aviation...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1042 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-061545-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
1042 AM CDT Thu May 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible today
into this evening across the Hill Country, the I-35 corridor to
the Coastal Plains. Damaging winds and large hail will be the
main threat, although an isolated tornado will be possible.
Locally heavy rainfall is possible in areas that receive multiple
rounds of showers and storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The first summer heat wave of the year is expected this weekend
into early next week. High temperatures will be in the upper 90s
to near 107 with afternoon heat index values as high as 110. Heat
Advisories may be issued. Be sure to take precautions in the heat.
Drink plenty of water, wear light colored and loose fitting
clothing, and take breaks in the shade or in air conditioned
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
537 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             3 NNE ROUND ROCK        30.55N 97.66W
05/05/2022  M0.50 INCH       WILLIAMSON         TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED ON CASA BLANCA COVE.

&&

KCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
600 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

TXZ188-052330-
Gillespie TX-
600 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Gillespie County through 630 PM CDT...

At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cain City, or near Fredericksburg, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fredericksburg, Stonewall, Blumenthal, Luckenbach, Cain City, Albert,
Grapetown, Rocky Hill, LBJ State Park and LBJ National Historical
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3023 9859 3014 9859 3014 9890 3015 9892
      3031 9883
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 296DEG 18KT 3020 9880

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
633 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

TXZ194-209-060015-
Fayette TX-Lee TX-
633 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Lee and
northeastern Fayette Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Giddings, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Giddings, Round Top, Lake Somerville State Park & Trailway, Carmine,
Serbin, Northrup, Winedale, Lincoln, Ledbetter, Manheim, and Loebau.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3007 9703 3029 9705 3035 9677 3032 9674
      3032 9669 3030 9667 3029 9664 3025 9669
      3024 9674 3020 9674 3016 9679 3014 9677
      3015 9671 3017 9669 3015 9668 3015 9665
      3007 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 266DEG 29KT 3020 9696

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
639 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             1 WNW JOHNSON CITY      30.28N 98.43W
05/05/2022  M2.00 INCH       BLANCO             TX   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT OF 2 INCH HAIL NEAR JOHNSON
            CITY FORWARDED VIA LOCAL MEDIA. LOCATION
            MARKER IS APPROXIMATE.

&&

KCW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
657 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

TXZ191-208-060045-
Caldwell TX-Hays TX-
657 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Caldwell and
southeastern Hays Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kyle, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Kyle, Lockhart, Luling, Martindale, Uhland, Mustang
Ridge, Niederwald, Brownsboro, Mountain City, Joliet, San Marcos
Regional Airport, Maxwell, Reedville, Lytton Springs, Dale, St John
Colony, Hays City, and Mendoza.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2970 9759 2980 9784 2981 9785 2983 9784
      2985 9786 2985 9789 2983 9792 2988 9806
      3006 9801 3005 9774 3002 9771 3005 9769
      3004 9762 2997 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 282DEG 31KT 2996 9795

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
713 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

TXZ191-206>208-060100-
Guadalupe TX-Comal TX-Caldwell TX-Hays TX-
713 PM CDT Thu May 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Caldwell, south central Hays, north central Guadalupe and eastern
Comal Counties through 800 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Canyon Lake Dam, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Braunfels, San Marcos, Seguin, Canyon Lake Dam, Canyon Lake,
McQueeney, Martindale, Staples, Geronimo, Zorn, Smithson Valley,
Hunter, Startzville, Sattler, Redwood, Freiheit, Gruene, and New
Braunfels National Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2979 9836 2995 9826 2984 9775 2955 9798
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 292DEG 28KT 2984 9822

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BF