Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

137 
WWUS54 KEWX 110045
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
745 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

TXC465-110130-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-220511T0130Z/
Val Verde TX-
745 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY...

At 744 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 9 miles south of
Juno, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Juno, Bakers Crossing and Devils River State Nat Area Del Norte. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2991 10100 2995 10117 3025 10114 3018 10083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 197DEG 19KT 3002 10105 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

354 
WWUS54 KEWX 110105
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
805 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

TXC465-110114-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0086.000000T0000Z-220511T0130Z/
Val Verde TX-
805 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2991 10100 2995 10117 3025 10114 3018 10083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 197DEG 19KT 3013 10101 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
627 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
Issued at 413 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for Val Verde County
through 11 PM CDT. Some storms will be capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts this evening across this area. Some of
the convective allowing models indicate the discrete storms across
Mexico and the dry line evolving into one or more convective lines
into the early evening. The convective allowing models indicate
southern storms and severe threat rapidly weakening 10 PM to
Midnight across the western 1/3 of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

A strong cap is reducing diurnal heating and keeping convection from
developing over most of the area. There are a few, elevated, stray
sprinkles along and east of I-35, but those are rooted above the
boundary layer and hence moisture-starved, so we do not expect them
to develop more than they already have. The bigger show will be late
this afternoon and evening as a weak shortwave trough, the dryline,
and several mountain chains in west Texas and northern Mexico
initiate convection.

CAPE, bulk shear, and SRH are all sufficient for supercells, but the
profiles seem to indicate these will be LP "barber pole" supercells
(mostly in West Texas), or the cold pools will grow upscale into
short lines of storms. The upshot for our area are good chances for
rain on the Rio Grande Plains, but only light to moderate amounts,
and lower end severe threats of large hail and damaging winds. One
or two storms may make it to the U.S. Highway 83 corridor, but these
would not be severe, nor bring significant rainfall.

Otherwise, the longwave pattern begins to transition on Wednesday
toward zonal at mid and upper levels. With no near-surface boundaries
in the area, we do not anticipate any thunderstorms. Conditions will
be more similar to mid to late summer, with cloudy skies and muggy
conditions in the mornings, followed by partly cloudy and hot
afternoons. Temperatures will be above normal, but should not
threaten records.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

High pressure under upper level ridging will dominate through the
long term period. The surface high over the Gulf will keep the
dryline and any convection west of our CWA most days. The only chance
for showers and thunderstorms over us will be Friday afternoon when a
weak shortwave trough moves across Texas. The only part of the area
that will have any chance for rain will be northern Val Verde County,
and even there chances will be very low. The rest of the area will
remain dry. Temperatures through the end of the week will continue
well above normal with highs mainly in the middle to upper 90s.
Sunday and Monday the upper ridge will strengthen over Texas and
increased subsidence will push temperatures a bit higher with triple
digit highs over much of the CWA Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

Convection has developed in the higher terrain of Mexico and is now
crossing the Rio Grande, north of DRT. Several models indicate
coverage increasing in the vicinity of Del Rio 01Z-03Z. Some of the
storms could become severe, producing large hail and wind gusts in
excess of 50KT. Models indicate the southern end of the activity
weakening around 04Z-06Z. We do not expect this to reach the I-35
corridor sites.

Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail this evening, outside of
convection. Stratus is expected to re-develop from the Coastal
Plains into the I-35 corridor between 04Z-07Z and the west through
the Hill Country overnight and into the Rio Grande 08Z-12Z Tuesday.
Stratus will again mix out between 15Z-18Z Tuesday. Haze also
continues to linger across South Central Texas, partially owing to
smoke particulate that has been advected into the region from
seasonal agricultural burns taking place in Mexico. While visibility
with the haze is mostly greater than 6SM, there have been some
periods the past couple of days where visibility briefly drops into
the MVFR range. This has been mostly occurring in the morning hours.

South to southeast winds will continue through the TAF period, with
some gusts between 20-28KT this evening and again Wednesday
afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  70  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  96  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  95  72  96 /  50   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  94  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             71  97  68  98 /  10   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  96  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  95  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  98  72  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...76
Long-Term...05
Aviation...76

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
344 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111100-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
344 AM CDT Tue May 10 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Late this afternoon and this evening, there is a slight risk of
severe storms over Val Verde County. East of the slight risk
area, a marginal risk of severe storms extends to near a Leakey to
Uvalde to Carrizo Springs line. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
648 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

TXZ183-110045-
Val Verde TX-
648 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Val
Verde County through 745 PM CDT...

At 646 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Langtry, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Langtry, Shumla, Seminole Canyon State Park, Pandale and Pecos River
Boat Ramp.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent
thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be
struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on
the water in a thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3021 10158 3014 10112 2957 10129 2959 10131
      2965 10130 2966 10134 2965 10136 2970 10137
      2975 10142 2977 10140 2975 10144 2979 10147
      2976 10154 2981 10154 2980 10157 2978 10157
      2979 10158
TIME...MOT...LOC 2346Z 185DEG 21KT 2985 10147

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
713 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

TXZ183-110100-
Val Verde TX-
713 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Val
Verde County through 800 PM CDT...

At 713 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 15
miles north of Comstock, moving north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Juno, Bakers Crossing and Devils River State Nat Area Del Norte.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10119 3029 10081 2980 10106 2986 10126
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 199DEG 33KT 2991 10113

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH