Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

774 
WWUS54 KEWX 191722
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

TXC465-191745-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0041.000000T0000Z-220419T1745Z/
Val Verde TX-
1222 PM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY...

At 1222 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles east of
Pandale, or 15 miles west of Juno, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Juno and Bakers Crossing. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10151 3029 10142 3016 10101 2992 10115
      3017 10152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 286DEG 24KT 3019 10137 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
622 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Weak ridging aloft over the southern high Plains will flatten some
through today as a relatively weak shortwave trough moves through
the upper flow. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure currently
centered over N MO and IA is leading to curved flow locally with ENE
winds over much of the region becoming ESE near the Rio Grande.
Pressure gradient tightens today as the high center shifts to the
Mid-South, and 10-20 mph SE winds will gust to 20-30 mph at
times today, highest west.

Moisture is already increasing across the Rio Grande Plains this
morning and cloud cover will develop there through sunrise and
gradually build eastward during the day. As a result, high
temperatures today will only be in the mid 70s to low 80s for most,
perhaps mid 80s far southwest.

Model soundings indicate moisture will deepen quickly today, with
Pwats up to 1-1.3" by 12Z out west and continuing to rise to 1.5-
1.7" by midday for the southwestern quarter of our area. Weak
isentropic lift is expected later this morning west, and drizzle
and/or isolated showers may begin to develop after sunrise. Low POPs
(20-30%) will spread slowly eastward through the day to perhaps the
US-281 corridor by mid-afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be
ruled out today across Val Verde or Edwards County, but otherwise if
any SDB convection develops it would not reach the river. Rainfall
amounts will be light today, less than 0.10" for the most part.

As we head through the evening and overnight, can't rule out some
upslope-enhanced isolated light rain shifting eastward across the
Hill Country to the I-35 corridor, and the exiting weak shortwave
should take most of any lingering light rain chances with it by
Wednesday morning. Much warmer lows are forecast Wednesday
morning due to the high Tds, in the 60s to near 70.

Model soundings depict subsidence strengthening the capping
inversion during the day and so no thunderstorm development is
expected, and in fact the latest SPC outlook update has removed
general thunder from much of the area as a result. Skies should
gradually clear from W to E. Look for highs in the mid 80s to low
90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

The beginning of the long-term forecast should start out dry as
upper flow remains weak. Breezy southerly flow at the surface will
prevail with speeds in the 12-20 mph range and highs in the upper
80s to middle 90s across the area. Upslope flow west of the Rio
Grande could lead to some storms west of the border but not
anticipating any of this activity making it into our CWA. On Friday,
a weak shortwave embedded in the westerly flow could lead to some
activity a bit farther east and will mention 20 PoPs for western Val
Verde County Friday afternoon. Otherwise, breezy southerly flow will
continue with highs again in the upper 80s to middle 90s.

A large trough axis will move into the western CONUS for this
weekend. Ahead of this feature, southerly flow in the lower levels
will increase which could lead to some mainly isolated to scattered
showers ahead of an approaching cold front across a decent portion
of the area by Sunday afternoon. Highs this weekend should be in the
lower 80s to middle 90s with lows in the 60s and 70s.

The trough axis should begin to move into the Southern Plains by
Sunday afternoon. This should send the frontal boundary into the CWA
beginning Sunday evening into Sunday night. Models are coming into
better agreement that this front may actually bring a decent chance
of rainfall to much of the area Sunday night into Monday. Will
continue to assess over the next several days but this is the best
signal for a beneficial rainfall in quite some time. Let's toast to

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

Cloud cover continues to build in over the Rio Grande Plains, and
cigs will slowly lower and spread eastward today. High uncertainty in
exactly when MVFR conditions begin to prevail at KSAT/SSF, with some
guidance suggesting as early as 14Z and some as late as 20Z at KSAT.
There is also low confidence in whether any IFR conditions and/or
light rain will occur at KDRT today, so will hold with a SCT group
and VCSH for now there. Winds will increase out of the ESE to SE
today at 10-15 knots with some gusts to 20-25+ knots at times at all
sites. Wind speeds will remain 10-15 knots overnight. Expect cigs to
lower at the I-35 terminals overnight, potentially to IFR at times
for KAUS/KSAT, but again low confidence in whether and when IFR
conditions could prevail. While we are carrying MVFR conditions
through the majority of the period, we can't rule out occnl returns
to VFR late this afternoon through the mid-evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79  67  88  70 /  10  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  80  67  87  69 /  10  20  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     81  67  88  69 /  10  20  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            78  66  88  69 /  10  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           81  70  93  72 /  30  20   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        80  66  88  70 /  10  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             81  67  90  68 /  30  30  10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        80  67  88  68 /  10  20  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  69  86  70 /  10  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       80  67  88  70 /  20  20  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           82  70  90  71 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...KCW
Long-Term...29
Aviation...KCW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
304 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-200815-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
304 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1156 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

TXZ183-191730-
Val Verde TX-
1156 AM CDT Tue Apr 19 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Val
Verde County through 1230 PM CDT...

At 1156 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Pandale, or 28 miles west of Juno, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pandale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3029 10163 3029 10144 3022 10121 2998 10134
      3018 10170
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 296DEG 23KT 3023 10158

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

RUNYEN