Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
144 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Latest GOES-16 Day Cloud Phase Distinction loop depicts a large
cumulus field over the Southern Edwards Plateau and stretching into
the western Hill Country. Clouds are already starting to undergo
more pronounced vertical development, with echoes starting to show
up on latest Dual-Pol scans. The cold front we've been advertising
for the better part of the past week has managed to hold up
stationary along the I-10 corridor and highway 90 out towards Del
Rio. This will provide a nice focus for shower and thunderstorm
development, with scattered storms developing through mid afternoon
and continuing into the late evening hours. At this time, severe
weather is not anticipated, but with storms likely going through
some chaotic motions given the outflow boundaries often pushed out
from multicellular/pulse convection, wouldn't be surprised to see a
couple of weak downburst type storms with winds gusting to 35-45
kts. As far as rainfall amounts go, keep in mind, despite the best
rain chances we've seen in over a month, that not everyone will get
rain. Those that do, could see a quick 1/4 to 1/2 inch, with
isolated totals in excess of 1 inch possible, especially given PWATs
in the 1.5-1.75" range. Expect shower and storm coverage to
decrease, especially after 10pm, but there may be some remnant
showers and maybe a rumble of thunder through midnight over the Rio
Grande Plains.

Expect a similar scenario to unfold on Tuesday, albeit, with cooler
afternoon highs given a slightly cooler airmass in place after the
passage of the cold front. Highs should range from the upper 80s to
the upper 90s, so we will happily take the break from the triple
digit heat along with the increased rain chances. Tuesday's setup
isn't quite as good as today's setup, but we will take what we can
get. Expect scattered showers and storms to again develop, but
possibly earlier than today, from late morning and continue through
the early evening. Models are consistent in developing convection
west of the San Antonio metro for tomorrow afternoon, but points
north and east of that, the chances will likely drop off a bit. The
rainfall we receive will help keep temperatures in check as we head
into midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

As the long term period begins on Wednesday morning, the H5 pattern
will consist of broad upper ridging over much of the CONUS with
troughing over both the PacNW/Western Canada and the
northeast/Eastern Canada. A weak tropical low is likely to be
located in the western Gulf, reflected at the sfc and 500 mb in most
models. This system is currently only given a 20% chance by the NHC
to develop a closed circulation over the next 5 days. Most guidance
keeps this system relatively stationary off the TX coast through the
end of the week, slowly pushing northward into E TX on Friday.

Near to even slightly below normal temperatures are forecast across
portions of the area, particularly east on Thursday as cloud cover
may stick around through much of the day, especially for the Coastal
Plains. While isolated locations may max out in the upper 80s Wed-
Fri, the vast majority of the CWA will still see highs in the 90s
with some low 100s possible again by Friday along the Rio Grande. In
terms of rain chances, they'll mainly be relegated to areas east of
I-35 and will be highest on Thursday and Friday along the US-77
corridor. Even there, chances max out around 40% at this time. As
the trough or potentially weak low comes on shore late this week, it
is likely to weaken quickly. The primary impacts to our region will
be a low chance for locally heavy rain for the Coastal Plains Thur-
Fri, as depicted in the WPC day 3-7 hazards product. But confidence
is still low to moderate in exactly where and when the system will
move onshore as well as how strong it will be at that time. Some
interactions with the weak frontal boundary that is likely to remain
draped nearby are possible, which in the past has aided tropical
development in the region from time to time. Stay tuned.

Expect temperatures to climb again over the weekend into next week
as upper ridging amplifies once again over the CONUS. By Monday most
areas will be firmly back in the above normal category with highs in
the mid 90s to low 100s. Per CPC, it's likely that above normal
temperatures will continue much of next week, while odds are tilted
towards drier than normal conditions as well. Any rain we see today
through the end of the week is quite welcome, but won't be nearly
enough to put a dent in our drought for many locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

Widely scattered SHRA and TSRA are expected this afternoon and
through at least 03Z this evening for a good chunk of the region.
Will go with TEMPO groups for 4 hours with TSRA at AUS/SAT/SSF
through around sunset. Otherwise, will stick with VCTS through at
least 03Z at I-35 sites and similar conditions expected at DRT,
although not as heavy. Expect winds to be quite variable today, but a
general east-northeasterly direction can be expected with gusts to
20-25 kts possible through late evening. Storms will be prone to
collapse due to a lack of shear, so rogue wind gusts in excess of
30-40 kts are not out of the question. Expect VFR CIGs through the
period despite TSRA chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  95  72  96 /  30  20   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  93  71  96 /  30  20   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  93  72  96 /  40  20   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            72  93  70  95 /  30  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  95  76  98 /  40  50  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  95  71  96 /  20  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72  94  72  97 /  40  30  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        72  92  71  96 /  40  20   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74  96  73  94 /  30  20   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  94  74  96 /  50  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           76  95  74  98 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...Morris
Long-Term...KCW
Aviation...Morris

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
408 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-280915-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
408 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

A cold front will be moving across the area today with the
potential of producing isolated heavy downpours and thunderstorm
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time for the period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

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