Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
245 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

Early this morning through Thursday, a lower level convergence zone,
residual outflow boundaries, and weak troughing aloft linger over
our area along with slightly above seasonal normal moisture levels
(PWs) of 1.5 north to 2.2 south. These features will generate rounds
of showers and thunderstorms with convergence zones and boundaries
focusing the activity with one round ongoing. Forecast soundings and
slow storm motions indicate a potential for locally heavy rains with
moderate to high rain rates. The highest PWs are along and south of
US 90 near the convergence zone and expect the heaviest rains will
focus there. All these factors put together lead to a potential for
localized flooding. WPC has a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
across much of South Central Texas today and our southern tier of
counties on Thursday. Strong wind gusts are also possible due to
water loaded downdrafts. The cloudiness and rain continue below
average high temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

A weak upper level ridge will remain over the Southern Plains through
the long term period. The old stationary front will wash out
completely over South Texas Thursday night and there will be enough
lift across the decaying boundary to generate isolated to scattered
convection across the southern half of our CWA. PW should have
decreased enough to make heavy rain unlikely by this time. Little
change is expected for the weekend. This will mean a conditionally
unstable airmass over the region. There should be enough lift from
daytime heating to generate isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Friday through Sunday.
Generally speaking PW will remain moderate and heavy rain is not
likely, but we won't rule out a slight chance for brief heavy rain.
The low level flow will become a bit stronger early next week and PW
will surge above 2.0 inches as far inland as I-35 by Monday
afternoon. This moisture surge will increase chances for convection
Monday and Tuesday afternoons and bring back the chance for locally
heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Wednesday night.
Periods of SHRA/TSRA are expected. Best chances of impacts are at
KSAT/KSSF overnight into early morning where have maintained TEMPO
of TSRA with restrictions to CIGs/VSBYs. Otherwise, VCTS/VCSH is
mentioned. Generally light winds of less than 7 KTs are expected.
However, wind gusts to 40 KTs are possible near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  75  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  90  74  92  73 /  50  20  40  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  74  94  74 /  50  20  50  30
Burnet Muni Airport            89  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           92  77  92  77 /  50  40  50  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  74  92  72 /  40  20  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             91  75  91  75 /  40  40  50  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  73  93  73 /  50  20  50  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   90  74  92  74 /  50  30  40  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  75  91  75 /  50  30  50  30
Stinson Muni Airport           91  76  93  76 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...05
Aviation...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
321 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-250830-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
321 AM CDT Wed Aug 24 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Locally heavy rains mainly across the southern Rio Grande Plains
to the San Antonio metro area to the Coastal Plains may cause
some flooding. Gusty winds are possible with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Locally heavy rainfall and gusty thunderstorm winds are possible
each day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.