Wind Advisory 4, NWS El Paso, TX

834 
WWUS74 KEPZ 160339
NPWEPZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso TX/ Santa Teresa NM
839 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

NMZ414>416-161500-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HW.W.0001.220216T1800Z-220217T0200Z/
/O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220216T1800Z/
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park, 
Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon, 
and Sacramento
839 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST WEDNESDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with
  gusts up to 50 mph. For the High Wind Warning, southwest winds 
  30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Sacramento Mountains in northeast Otero County.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 11 AM MST Wednesday. For the
  High Wind Warning, from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. Use caution if you must drive.

&&

$$

NMZ411>413-417-TXZ418>424-161500-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HW.W.0001.220216T1800Z-220217T0200Z/
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin-
Southern Tularosa Basin-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County-
Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
Including the cities of Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, 
Alamogordo, Tularosa, White Sands National Park, Chaparral, 
Orogrande, White Sands Range Headquarters, Crow Flats, 
Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, Upper Valley, 
East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss, Hueco Tanks, 
Loma Linda, Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, 
Fabens, Fort Hancock, Tornillo, and Indian Hot Springs
839 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Tularosa Basin, El Paso Metro, and Far West Texas 
  including El Paso, Hudspeth, Otero, and southern Dona Ana 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Reductions in visibility due to blowing
  dust are likely. Motorists should not drive into an area of
  blowing dust.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

NMZ402-403-405>410-161500-
/O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0004.220216T1800Z-220217T0200Z/
Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-
Including the cities of Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, 
Fort Bayard, Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, 
Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Cloverdale, Deming, Columbus, 
Hillsboro, Winston, Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, 
Garfield, Hatch, and Radium Springs
839 PM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Gila National Forest and surrounding lowlands including
  Sierra, Grant, Luna, southern Hidalgo, and northern Dona Ana 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Reductions in visibility due to blowing
  dust are possible. Motorists should not drive into an area of 
  blowing dust.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Dennhardt

843 
WWUS74 KEPZ 161209
NPWEPZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service El Paso TX/ Santa Teresa NM
509 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022

NMZ413-417-TXZ419>424-170200-
/O.NEW.KEPZ.DU.Y.0002.220216T1800Z-220217T0200Z/
/O.CON.KEPZ.HW.W.0001.220216T1800Z-220217T0200Z/
Southern Tularosa Basin-Otero Mesa-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
Including the cities of Chaparral, Orogrande, 
White Sands Range Headquarters, Crow Flats, 
East and Northeast El Paso, Socorro, Fort Bliss, Hueco Tanks, 
Loma Linda, Cornudas, Dell City, Salt Flat, Sierra Blanca, 
Fabens, Fort Hancock, Tornillo, and Indian Hot Springs
509 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022

...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the High Wind Warning, southwest winds 30 to 40 mph 
  with gusts up to 65 mph expected. For the Blowing Dust 
  Advisory, visibility between one quarter mile and one mile in 
  blowing dust expected at times.

* WHERE...Tularosa Basin, El Paso Metro, and Far West Texas
  including El Paso, Hudspeth, Otero, and southern Dona Ana
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Reductions in visibility due to blowing
  dust are likely. Motorists should not drive into an area of
  blowing dust. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not drive into an area of blowing dust.
Remember, Pull Aside, Stay Alive.

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NMZ414>416-170200-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HW.W.0001.220216T1800Z-220217T0200Z/
/O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220216T1800Z/
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Including the cities of Mescalero, Timberon, Mountain Park, 
Cloudcroft, Sunspot, Apache Summit, Mayhill, Pinon, 
and Sacramento
509 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...For the Wind Advisory, southwest winds 25 to 35 mph 
  with gusts up to 50 mph. For the High Wind Warning, southwest 
  winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected.

* WHERE...Sacramento Mountains in northeast Otero County.

* WHEN...For the Wind Advisory, until 11 AM MST Wednesday. For 
  the High Wind Warning, from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NMZ411-412-TXZ418-170200-
/O.CON.KEPZ.HW.W.0001.220216T1800Z-220217T0200Z/
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin-
Western El Paso County-
Including the cities of Las Cruces, Vado, Sunland Park, 
Alamogordo, Tularosa, White Sands National Park, 
Downtown El Paso, West El Paso, and Upper Valley
509 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 65 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Tularosa Basin, El Paso Metro, and Far West Texas 
  including El Paso, Hudspeth, Otero, and southern Dona Ana 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Reductions in visibility due to blowing 
  dust are likely. Motorists should not drive into an area of 
  blowing dust.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

NMZ402-403-405>410-170200-
/O.CON.KEPZ.WI.Y.0004.220216T1800Z-220217T0200Z/
Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-
Including the cities of Silver City, Lake Roberts, Kingston, 
Fort Bayard, Mimbres, Hurley, Faywood, Grant County Airport, 
Antelope Wells, Animas, Hachita, Cloverdale, Deming, Columbus, 
Hillsboro, Winston, Truth Or Consequences, Derry, Spaceport, 
Garfield, Hatch, and Radium Springs
509 AM MST Wed Feb 16 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
7 PM MST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Gila National Forest and surrounding lowlands 
  including Sierra, Grant, Luna, southern Hidalgo, and northern 
  Dona Ana Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Reductions in visibility due to blowing 
  dust are possible. Motorists should not drive into an area of 
  blowing dust.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1055 AM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW250 BCMG SCT250. Southerly
winds will veer to the southwest (210-240) early this afternoon
increasing to around 15 to 20 knots sustained with gusts up to 30
knots. The strongest winds are expected at DMN and TCS. Winds will
ease after dark, but the possibility of LLWS will increase
especially after 3z. BLDU is possible 21-02z, but significant VIS
reductions are not likely. Conditions will be monitored closely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...422 AM MST Tue Feb 15 2022...

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions expected today and Wednesday as a storm system
crosses the southern Rockies. Expect unseasonably warm
temperatures and high fire danger today ahead of this system.
Winds increase further on Wednesday as a cold front arrives with
light rain showers and mountain snow flurries. This will lead to
cooler weather on Thursday. Dry weather resumes Friday into the
weekend as temperatures quickly rebound.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tuesday and Tuesday Night...
Today we keep eyes to our west as the next Pacific storm system
slides south over California. By day's end it will be no closer than
South Central California, but it will begin to makes it's approach
felt in our region through the afternoon hours today as winds
increase in response to deepening surface troughing and increasing
winds aloft mixing down. With the system still two states to our
west the wind speed increases and impacts will not be great, but
they will be noticeable. For most of the forecast area, stronger
winds will hold off until mid-afternoon. However higher terrain and
the far western areas (Bootheel area), will see earlier increases
and stronger winds. The bootheel will be under a wind advisory this
afternoon/evening. That area, and the higher elevations of the SACs
and BLACKs should see winds of 25 to 35 mph with some gusts near 50
mph. The rest of southern NM should see 20 to 30 mph with higher
gusts west of the RGV, and 15 to 25 mph at times with higher gusts
east of the Rio and across far west TX during afternoon hours. Very
dry air, strong downsloping SW winds, and mostly sunny skies will
cause temperatures to be the warmest of the year, and at least 10
degrees warmer than normal. Lowland high temperatures this afternoon
will top out in the low to mid 70s. Of course with warm temperatures
promoting good mixing off the surface, strong surface winds, and dry
antecedent conditions, there will likely be some patchy blowing dust
across the lowlands; especially in the vicinity of source regions.
It does not appear that winds will be strong enough to loft thick
and significantly impacting amounts of dust over a wide swath at this
time, but there could be some local isolated thick dust.

This evening and overnight we expect the strong winds aloft to
decouple across most of the lowlands, with some stronger breezy and
gusty winds continuing over the higher terrain, through passes, and
over eastern slopes. There will be wind shear off the surface as
surface winds slacken, but winds off the surface remain strong
through the night. The mixing this caused, above the surface, will
help to keep the overnight low temperatures mild. The parent storm
will continue tracking south and turning east as it continues to
approach. We will likely see some high and mid-level clouds stream
front west to east across the region, but generally, just thin
clouds and mostly clear skies and dry conditions overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday...
Wednesday will start out windy. The advertised upper low will be
entering Western AZ by sunrise and will continue to move east
through the day, aiding to strengthen the surface pressure
pressure gradient over the Borderland. Model soundings show early
afternoon mixing to ~650-700 mb, where a 45-55 knot jet could mix
down to the surface with momentum transfer as wind gusts, with
higher gusts possible on east- facing mountain slopes. A wind
advisory looks likely for much of the area on Wednesday.  The
direction and strength of the wind on Wednesday traditionally
brings blowing dust issues across the region and therefore added
dust to the forecast grids. As the low draws closer to New Mexico,
an attendant Pacific cold front will move into western NM by
early afternoon. Areas ahead of the cold front will have the
strongest winds on Wednesday. The cold front will make it to the
Rio Grande Valley (give or take) by sunset. Winds behind the front
will gradually decrease due to loss of daytime heating, and
because the cooler air will inhibit the deeper mixing. Regardless,
winds will remain breezy overnight.

The airmass behind the cold front will bring in additional
moisture, albeit about average for this time of the year according
to SPC sounding climatology. The best moisture will remain west
of the region. Regardless, frontogenetic lift will kick off
precip chances along the AZ Border by early afternoon Wednesday.
As mentioned, the front/leading precip line will make it to around
the Rio Grande Valley by sunset and through the FA by roughly
10pm or so. Keep in mind that the best chances for any precip
remains in the mountains. Rain chances wain quickly after passage
for all areas except our northern mountain zones. A weak wave
rounds the upper low and through the region Wednesday night,
keeping precip chances going there through the day on Thursday.
Snow levels will start off around 6000 feet on Wednesday and stay
around 5000 feet as the precip moves through with the front.
Lowland snow is not expected with this system. And all snow and
rain accumulations will be light overall.

Highs on Wednesday will depend largely on how far east the front
gets by peak heating. There will be a gradient of 40s/50s toward
the AZ border and upper 60s to our eastern fringes. With the cool
airmass finally in place Thursday, highs will be 10-15 degrees
below seasonal average - 50s in the lowlands.

For Friday through Monday, expect dry conditions, with
temperatures warming back to seasonal norms by Saturday. A weak
(and dry) system moves through Sunday bringing breezy afternoon
winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Windy, dry, and warm conditions today will likely bring on our first
Red Flag conditions of the young year. An approaching Pacific storm
system will drop south over California today, positioning strong
winds aloft and surface troughing over our region. This will induce
increasing southwesterly winds through the afternoon, with very dry
air in place, plenty of sunshine, and low-level instability. All
this combines to elevate fire weather concerns to near critical to
critical. Wind speeds will increase to the 20-30 mph range with
gusts to 40-50 mph. Stronger over high elevations and the NM
Bootheel. Relative humidity will fall into the single digits across
the lowlands, and lower teens over the area mountains. A Red Flag
Warning will be in effect today over all our NM fire zones...but not
for the West Texas zones (where winds look to fall short). The SACs
are in the warming, but conditions are borderline - fuels may be
just below High Fire Danger, and the min RH may only briefly dip to
criteria.

Wednesday's winds will be stronger, but the arrival of the Pacific
storm will bring an increase in moisture, moderating fire weather
concerns, as min RH remains in the 20 and 30 percent ranges.
Stronger winds will be more focused east, but strong areawide. We
will also see precipitation chances with the system for WED and THU
with coverage in the 15-30% range over the area mountain, and only 5-
15% range across the lowlands. Snow levels will be dropping for WED
night through THU, but only light amounts are expected above 6000ft
elevations, with 1-2" over the higher terrain. Most of the lowlands
will probably remain dry, and any precip will be only trace to a few
hundredths. The winds will be the main concern, along with increased
potential for blowing dust on Wednesday in the vicinity of the
International Border.

The system pulls away on Thursday, but another lobe of energy drops
to the south. A few light scattered rain or snow showers will be
possible as winds slacken and temperatures cool to below avg. A
warming trend with minimum humidity 15 to 25%, light winds, and Poor
ventilation is expected Friday into the first half of the weekend.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75  44  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           71  39  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              75  38  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              71  40  62  25 /   0   0   0  20
Cloudcroft              48  31  40  15 /   0   0  10  20
Truth or Consequences   71  38  57  29 /   0   0  10   0
Silver City             63  34  46  24 /   0   0  40   0
Deming                  73  35  57  27 /   0   0  20   0
Lordsburg               75  34  53  23 /   0   0  40   0
West El Paso Metro      75  43  65  33 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               74  37  68  28 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock            78  39  72  31 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              68  40  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  76  40  69  30 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            74  37  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          73  44  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           71  37  60  25 /   0   0  10   0
Hatch                   73  37  59  26 /   0   0  10   0
Columbus                75  39  60  29 /   0   0  20   0
Orogrande               73  39  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 62  37  53  21 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero               59  34  50  18 /   0   0  10  20
Timberon                57  31  50  18 /   0   0   0  20
Winston                 67  27  53  16 /   0   0  30   0
Hillsboro               68  37  54  26 /   0   0  20   0
Spaceport               70  34  58  23 /   0   0  10   0
Lake Roberts            62  29  45  19 /   0   0  60   0
Hurley                  67  29  49  21 /   0   0  40   0
Cliff                   71  25  53  15 /   0   0  50   0
Mule Creek              69  32  46  24 /   0   0  60  10
Faywood                 66  34  50  24 /   0   0  30   0
Animas                  77  38  54  23 /   0   0  40   0
Hachita                 74  37  56  23 /   0   0  30   0
Antelope Wells          74  38  55  25 /   0   0  30   0
Cloverdale              70  36  48  26 /   0   0  40   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ405-406.

TX...None.
&&

14/33/34

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
633 AM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-161345-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
633 AM MST Tue Feb 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Very dry air, warm, and unstable air, combined with breezy to
windy conditions will elevate fire weather conditions, with near
critical to critical conditions resulting. A Red Flag Warning is
in effect this afternoon for all of the southern New Mexico fire
Zones. Winds in the 20 to 30 mph range are expected this
afternoon. The New Mexico Bootheel and high terrain of the Black
Range and Sacramento mountains will see higher winds. A Wind
Advisory will be in effect for the New Mexico Bootheel this
afternoon. Patchy blowing dust is possible this afternoon and may
cause isolated areas of reduced visibility and some travel
hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds will continue Wednesday as a Pacific storm system
arrives. The system will linger into Thursday. Dynamics and
moisture associated with the storm will increase the potential for
mountain snow and lowland rain. However chances will remain
generally low and amounts generally light. Wind speeds will be
stronger and there will be potential for travel hazards, and wind
damage. Any mountain snow could cause additional travel hazards,
and lowland rain will make for isolated and temporary slick road
conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed. However reports of any
significant blowing dust

BIRD