Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1150 AM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE...
Generally VFR conditions with SCT100 SCT-BKN250. Developing over
the mountains...scattered BKN-OVC050 3-5SM -TSRA with hail to
one-half inch and wind gusts of 30-40KT possible with these
storms. These storms moving or forming over the lowlands after
20Z. Best lowland chances for thunderstorms mainly from the Rio
Grande Valley west. Most thunderstorms ending by 07Z...though a
few showers/thunderstorms may continue to 12Z.

&&
Hefner

.PREV DISCUSSION...353 AM MDT Fri Aug 5 2022...

.SYNOPSIS...
Somewhat drier air will push into areas east of the Rio Grande
generally keeping the focus for thunderstorms with the potential
for localized flooding in western areas. Warm temperatures will
continue to be seen areas east of the Rio Grande accompanying the
drier air. The monsoonal tap of moisture continues to be disrupted
as the meandering upper-high pressure only swirls around trapped
moisture into the area. Moisture content will be near average or
just above average allowing for daily rounds of afternoon
monsoonal thunderstorms. Temperatures will steadily decline a
degree or two each day through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
Like last night, ongoing convection should be wrapping up as the the
forecast period begins. We continue to see above average moisture
across the region. The precipitable water value (PW) from last
nights balloon sounding was a little above an inch and this morning
satellite passes indicate slightly higher PW's. The satellites also
indicate that some slightly drier air has moved into the region the
southern part of the area , but that really hasn't slowed ongoing
convection this AM. We will see the convection wrapping up this
morning and clouds will be on the decrease to start the day. Then
later in the morning we will see clouds on the increase, as again
above average high temperatures will combine with abundant moisture
to help fuel scattered mountain and isolated to scattered lowland
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Like the last few days, no
clear trigger to get thunderstorms going, so it should be the
typical pattern for the monsoon season, with the mountain
thunderstorms starting first and then the lowlands getting in on the
action in the late afternoon and evening hours. Our high
temperatures this afternoon will run 3 to 5 degrees above average.
El Paso may end its current streak of triple digit days at 4 as
today's high temperature is forecasted to be 99.

Thunderstorms may linger into the overnight ours again, but where
they form and move, will depend a lot on outflow boundaries from
earlier thunderstorms. Low temperatures Saturday morning will run a
few degrees above average.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Friday...
Upper-high pressure will elongate itself over the central Plains
on Saturday. Drier air will start filtering into areas east of the
Rio Grande with PW values of ~0.9" (below average) and ~1.2"
(above average) for areas out west. Scattered mountain
thunderstorms in the early afternoon will transition to isolated
lowland storms by the early evening. With the higher moisture
content in place for western areas, these locations will have
increased chances for localized flooding. As for eastern areas,
drier air may keep things somewhat quiet, but the drier air could
have the potential to enhance convection. Small hail and gusty
winds may also be seen with thunderstorms Saturday.

Heading into Sunday, the upper-high is fairly stagnant over the
central Plains, but will begin to erode away. Above average
moisture will slosh around the Borderland allowing for another
round of monsoonal thunderstorms areawide with the same
aforementioned hazards as we will see on Saturday. The ridge will
rebuild over the Four Corners region on Monday and will slowly
meander eastward through Friday morning. The work week will
consist of near average or just above average moisture content
from recycled moisture and will continue the pattern of daily
afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Our low grade monsoon pattern will continue for the next seven days.
Saturday and Sunday may see lower chances for thunderstorms, but
then better rain chances return for the start of next week. Critical
fire weather conditions are not expected through at least the middle
of next week. The winds, away from thunderstorms, will stay well
below critical levels and our min RH's look to stay at or above 15%
for today through next Thursday. Ventilation rates will range from
good to very good for today through the weekend.

&&

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 99  75 100  75 /  20  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca           93  69  93  69 /  20  20   0   0
Las Cruces              98  71  99  71 /  20  20  20  10
Alamogordo              95  69  96  69 /  30  20  30   0
Cloudcroft              71  51  71  50 /  50  20  40   0
Truth or Consequences   94  71  95  70 /  40  40  30  30
Silver City             87  65  88  64 /  50  40  50  40
Deming                  95  70  97  70 /  40  40  20  20
Lordsburg               92  69  95  69 /  40  40  30  40
West El Paso Metro      98  75  99  75 /  20  20  10   0
Dell City               98  69  98  68 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Hancock            99  72  99  72 /  20  20   0   0
Loma Linda              91  68  91  68 /  20  20  10   0
Fabens                  98  73  98  72 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            96  71  97  71 /  20  20  10  10
White Sands HQ          95  73  96  73 /  20  20  20  10
Jornada Range           95  68  96  70 /  20  20  20  20
Hatch                   95  69  97  70 /  30  30  20  20
Columbus                95  71  97  71 /  30  40  10  20
Orogrande               96  69  96  70 /  20  20  20   0
Mayhill                 82  57  83  56 /  50  20  30   0
Mescalero               81  56  81  55 /  60  20  40  10
Timberon                81  56  81  55 /  40  20  30   0
Winston                 86  63  86  62 /  50  40  50  40
Hillsboro               92  68  94  67 /  40  40  40  30
Spaceport               94  67  95  69 /  20  30  30  20
Lake Roberts            85  60  86  60 /  50  40  60  40
Hurley                  91  67  93  67 /  40  40  40  40
Cliff                   94  65  95  63 /  50  40  60  40
Mule Creek              88  62  89  64 /  50  40  60  50
Faywood                 90  68  91  67 /  40  40  40  30
Animas                  92  68  95  67 /  40  50  30  40
Hachita                 91  68  94  67 /  40  50  20  30
Antelope Wells          90  66  94  66 /  50  50  30  40
Cloverdale              86  63  89  62 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>