Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures are expected through the weekend.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to be a
concern for area mountains, and west of the Continental Divide.
Periods of heavy rain will be possible with any storm in this area
too. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible over the
lowlands for the next few days. A backdoor cold front will be
pushing through the region on Saturday night bringing more chances
for storms and slightly cooler temperatures.

&&
29

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday...
Isolated convection will linger tonight, along and mainly west of
the Rio Grande as guidance suggests. HRRR, GFS, ECM, NAM suggest
some decent coverage of rain showers and iso tstorms across the Gila
and vicinity tonight, so this will have to be watched overnight. See
now that the GFS is producing a little vort max/energy aloft moving
into the western portions of the area, perhaps from the convection
to the south of our area which may linger this activity. Any pockets
of thunderstorms will have the ability to produce heavy rain and
gusty winds. Cloudy skies from convective debris will result in
warmer than avg overnight low temps.

Any of the more robust convection will likely remain west of the Rio
Grande tomorrow (Friday) as moisture pools around the Continental
Divide. Upper 40s dewpoints will try to work into west Texas and
vicinity, with a few hundred J/KG of CAPE. Closer to the Cont Div,
mid 50s dewpoints and near 1000 CAPEs. This coupled with the HREF 3-
hr probs (~30%) for >1" hugging the Cont Div, have a good feeling
the Gila and west of the Rio will see the most roust convection and
best chance for heavy rain/flash flooding. Expecting much more
iso coverage Rio and east. High temperatures upper 80s to mid 90s
across the borderland with light winds (outside of thunderstorms).

&&
35

.LONG TERM... Friday Night through Wednesday Night...
Upper high pressure area will continue to wobble and expand over
southern US. Meanwhile an upper shortwave trough will move east
from central CA into the Four Corners area. This will allow a deep
plume of moisture from the Gulf of California to move north into
Arizona and New Mexico. Precipitable water values remain around
1-1.3 inches with surface dewpoints into the upper 50s across the
western half of the CWA between the GFS and ECMWF. Some of the
moisture that we will see in the area is associated to tropical
storm Celia, but do not worry we are NOT expecting any impacts
from this system as it keeps its trajectory over the eastern
Pacific. The moisture favors mostly areas west of the Continental
Divide including the Black Range and the Gila Region. Brief
periods of heavy rain will be possible with any storm in said area
during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

On Saturday night into Sunday, models indicate a backdoor cold
front moving south into our region. However, the deterministic
models continue to have issues with this system as to when will it
pass through the area. Currently, have the front reaching us late
on Saturday night, but there is another push on Sunday afternoon.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist mainly over area
mountains as this system moves south. Storm coverage appears to be
more isolated in nature, though. Also, we should start seeing a
decrease in temperatures behind the front. Although, we are
expecting to remain below normal through the forecast period.

Next week, there is still a bit more uncertainty as the upper high
redevelops near the Great Basin and expands across the whole area,
although weaker than this week. Deterministic models are also
hinting at an inverted trough moving form the gulf of Mexico into
TX. Although my confidence that we will see some of this moisture
is very low. Overall, we will continue to have showers and
thunderstorms mainly over area mountains next week as the plume of
monsoon moisture remains settled over AZ/NM. Temperatures will
start to increase again during the afternoon by midweek, but
continue to be below normal.

&&
29

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE...
TSRA already developing across area mtns which will continue
through the rest of the afternoon, with iso/sct activity across
the lowlands 21 to 03Z. Best chance at direct terminal impact will
be KTCS, then to a lesser extent KDMN and KLRU. VCTS at KTCS and
KDMN as a result with the potential for KLRU later this afternoon
based on trends. Winds AOB 130-160 10KTs outside of TSRA outflow
through the afternoon, perhaps shifting northerly overnight. Skies
SCT-BKN060-110. VFR conditions except for direct TSRA.

&&
35

.FIRE WEATHER...
The combination of above normal moisture, potential wetting rains,
and light winds will result in low fire danger through much of the
period. Lingering rain will be possible tonight around the Gila and
vicinity, then another round Friday mainly for the Continental
Divide and vicinity. Any more robust convection will produce heavy
rain, gusty winds, and any instances of flash flooding. A similar
pattern will remain through the weekend with the richest moisture
west of the Rio Grande, and hence the best chance for heavy rain and
flash flooding.

Temperatures through much of the period will be a few degrees below
average with vent rates Poor to Fair Friday and Saturday, then Good
to Excellent Sunday. Min RH's 20 to 30s across the lowlands and 40
to 60 across the higher terrain through the weekend.

&&
35

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  96  72  95 /  10  20  30  30
Sierra Blanca           68  92  68  94 /   0  10  10  20
Las Cruces              68  93  67  92 /  20  40  30  40
Alamogordo              67  92  65  91 /  20  40  20  50
Cloudcroft              50  70  53  69 /  30  50  20  60
Truth or Consequences   68  89  67  89 /  30  60  30  50
Silver City             64  83  62  83 /  60  70  50  60
Deming                  66  92  65  90 /  30  50  40  50
Lordsburg               67  91  65  91 /  50  60  40  50
West El Paso Metro      72  94  71  94 /  10  20  30  30
Dell City               68  95  65  96 /  10  10  10  20
Fort Hancock            69  98  68  98 /   0  10  20  20
Loma Linda              67  89  66  90 /  10  20  20  30
Fabens                  70  97  69  97 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Teresa            68  93  67  92 /  20  20  30  30
White Sands HQ          73  92  70  91 /  20  40  30  40
Jornada Range           67  91  64  89 /  20  40  30  50
Hatch                   67  91  66  90 /  30  50  30  50
Columbus                69  91  68  90 /  30  40  40  40
Orogrande               68  93  67  93 /  10  30  20  40
Mayhill                 55  81  55  80 /  20  50  20  50
Mescalero               54  80  55  78 /  20  60  20  60
Timberon                55  79  55  79 /  20  40  20  50
Winston                 60  81  58  81 /  30  70  40  60
Hillsboro               66  87  64  85 /  30  60  40  50
Spaceport               66  89  63  89 /  30  50  30  50
Lake Roberts            58  84  55  83 /  50  70  40  60
Hurley                  63  88  62  87 /  50  60  40  60
Cliff                   56  93  57  91 /  50  70  40  60
Mule Creek              63  87  58  86 /  50  70  40  60
Faywood                 64  87  63  86 /  40  60  40  60
Animas                  66  91  66  91 /  50  60  50  50
Hachita                 66  90  66  89 /  40  60  50  50
Antelope Wells          66  90  65  89 /  40  70  60  50
Cloverdale              63  85  62  85 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

35-Delizio/29-Crespo

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1111 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

NMZ404>407-409>413-417-TXZ418>424-241715-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Sierra County Lakes-Northern Dona Ana County-
Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Central Tularosa Basin-
Southern Tularosa Basin-Otero Mesa-Western El Paso County-
Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
1111 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
evening, especially along and west of the Rio Grande. Heavy rain
will be the main threat with the most organized thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible each afternoon through
at least early next week. Heavy rain and isolated instances of
flooding will be the main threats with the most organized
thunderstorms. There is uncertainty into the early to middle
portions of next week as guidance depicts the potential for drier
air, but at least isolated thunderstorms will remain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather, flooding, or
damage to the National Weather Service by calling 1.800.874.6755.
You can also submit storm reports and photos via social media.

NMZ401>403-408-414>416-241715-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
1111 AM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico and southwest New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening across the Gila Wilderness and Sacramento mountains. Above
average moisture will result in efficient rains, and the potential
for isolated instances of flooding. Gusty winds will be possible
with the strongest storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Scattered thunderstorms are expected each afternoon with the
potential for isolated instances of flash flooding. There is
uncertainty into the early to middle portions of next week as
guidance depicts the potential for drier air, but at least
isolated thunderstorms will remain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters are encouraged to report any severe weather, flooding, or
damage to the National Weather Service by calling 1.800.874.6755.
You can also submit storm reports and photos via social media.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
209 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

NMZ410-412-413-232045-
Central Tularosa Basin NM-Southern Tularosa Basin NM-
Northern Dona Ana County NM-
209 PM MDT Thu Jun 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Otero
and northeastern Dona Ana Counties through 245 PM MDT...

At 208 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Organ, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
White Sands National Monument, Portions of Jornada Experimental Range
and Lake Lucero.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 3252 10647 3254 10655 3282 10657 3274 10623
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 195DEG 9KT 3259 10648

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TEXEIRA