Wind Advisory 7, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Worth County, MO

623 
WWUS73 KEAX 301541
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1041 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>004-011>013-020-021-028-029-037-043-
053-302100-
/O.EXT.KEAX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220530T2100Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-
Buchanan-Clinton-Platte-Clay-Jackson-Cass-Bates-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, 
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Wathena, Elwood, Troy, 
Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing, 
Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee, 
Lenexa, Tarkio, Rock Port, Fairfax, Maryville, Grant City, 
Albany, Stanberry, King City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, 
Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa, Maysville, Stewartsville, 
Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, 
Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, 
Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, 
Kearney, Kansas City, Independence, Belton, Raymore, 
Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, Butler, Adrian, and Rich Hill
1041 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and northeast Kansas and 
  northwest and west central Missouri.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

844 
WWUS73 KEAX 302056
NPWEAX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
356 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>004-011>013-020-021-028-029-037-043-
053-302200-
/O.EXP.KEAX.WI.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-220530T2100Z/
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-
Johnson KS-Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-
Buchanan-Clinton-Platte-Clay-Jackson-Cass-Bates-
Including the cities of Atchison, Paola, Osawatomie, Louisburg, 
Pleasanton, La Cygne, Mound City, Wathena, Elwood, Troy, 
Highland, Fort Leavenworth, Leavenworth, Lansing, 
Kansas City Kansas, Overland Park, Stanley, Olathe, Shawnee, 
Lenexa, Tarkio, Rock Port, Fairfax, Maryville, Grant City, 
Albany, Stanberry, King City, Oregon, Maitland, Forest City, 
Craig, Savannah, Country Club Villa, Maysville, Stewartsville, 
Osborn, Union Star, Clarksdale, St. Joseph Airport, St. Joseph, 
Cameron, Plattsburg, Lathrop, Parkville, Platte City, Riverside, 
Weatherby Lake, Weston, Gladstone, Liberty, Excelsior Springs, 
Kearney, Kansas City, Independence, Belton, Raymore, 
Harrisonville, Pleasant Hill, Butler, Adrian, and Rich Hill
356 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The wind advisory for the area will be allowed to expire at 4 pm;
however, isolated wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible north of
interstate 70 across eastern Kansas/western Missouri for the next
hour or two.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1118 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

Key Points:

* Warm and windy conditions continue through the remainder of the
  holiday weekend.

* A brief shower or storm is possible Monday morning- mainly north
  of I-70.

* Active period for weather Monday night into Tuesday.  Could see
  rounds of storms, with large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes and
  flash flooding possible.

Detailed discussion...

Standing upper level trough across the western US will send periodic
waves of weather into the plains over the next few days. At the
surface, deepening surface low across western Kansas is expected to
lift north tonight. Ahead of this low, strong southerly flow is
expected with 40-50 knot low level jet feeding northward to the warm
front extending across central Nebraska northeast into Minnesota.
Weak short wave is expected to rotate around the upper low tonight
leading to waves of convection along the warm front overnight.

Farther south, models are hinting at n-s oriented axis of increasing
850-700 mb theta-e approaching eastern Kansas after 09Z Monday. With
the approaching disturbance, GFS and Canadian are suggesting the
potential for a round of elevated showers and thunderstorms.  These
storms would likely be quite elevated and with dry sub cloud layer,
impacts at the surface will mainly be gusty winds and perhaps a
brief shower.

Strong area of low pressure is expected to lift north across the
eastern Dakotas on Monday. Attendant cold front/dry line will serve
as additional focusing mechanisms for rounds of thunderstorms across
central and eastern Nebraska.  Front is expected to approach
northwestern Missouri early in the evening, but then potentially
stall.  With the approaching front, could see the potential for a
few storms across northwestern Missouri in the later afternoon/early
evening. Chances increase in the evening hours as low level jet
increases across the southern plains and convergence increases along
the front.  With 1500-2500 J/kg of CAPE and 50+ knots of bulk shear,
any storm that is able to develop will likely be severe.  In
addition, deep warm cloud depths, high pwat values and short MBE
vectors suggest the potential for flash flooding.

Details heading into Monday night are still a bit sketchy with quite
a bit of uncertainty among the various solutions. Models are
hinting that outflow from convection upstream may try to surge
southward Monday evening, and with the atmosphere largely capped
atmosphere ahead of the front, convective/severe potential may
become somewhat limited.

As the main cold front moves through the area on Tuesday, looking at
a renewed chance of severe weather as the atmosphere re-
destabilizes.  Still looking at strong shear along with 2500-3500
J/kg of SB CAPE, suggesting the potential for all modes of severe
weather Tuesday afternoon into the early evening hours.

Potential of showers behind the front lingers into Wednesday and
possibly Thursday as longstanding trough to the west breaks down and
the last few waves cut across the center of the country in zonal
flow.

Behind the front on Tuesday, much cooler conditions are expected
Wednesday- Saturday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2022

Breezy VFR conditions persist through the period.

Gusty southerly winds continue through the overnight hours. Winds
accelerate after sunrise tomorrow remaining out of the south at
around 20 kts with gusts peaking during the afternoon around 30-35
kts. A small boundary and a couple subtle shortwaves may bring
some passing showers tomorrow morning and again tomorrow evening
mainly north of I-70. The greater chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected as a cold front approaches from the NW
overnight Monday into Tuesday just outside of this TAF period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
106 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301815-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
106 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

 Strong southerly winds today with gusts up 40 mph. A few gusts up
 to 45 mph possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Strong to severe storms possible across northeast Kansas and
 northwest Missouri Monday night after 9 PM. Damaging winds, large
 hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.

 Strong to severe storms also possible Tuesday between noon and 7 PM across
 eastern Kansas and the northwest half of Missouri. Damaging winds,
 large hail, and flash flooding are possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo