Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
549 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across far northern MO
(north of US-36). Primary hazards include high winds and hail. An
isolated tornado is possible

- Weaker showers and thunderstorms are expected south of US-36.
Gusty winds and sub-severe hail are still possible.

- Breezy conditions are expected to continue through the overnight.
Sustained with at 20-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH are expected.

- Breezy conditions and dry air both ahead and behind the cold front
increases fire weather concerns. Burning is discourage.

DETAILED DISCUSSION

A fairly active weather pattern is expected over the next 48 hours.
Strong southerly winds have pushed temperatures up into the 70's
most areas. A strong cold front to the west moves through this
afternoon bring chances for showers and thunderstorms with
potentially strong to severe storms expected across northern MO.
This front also flips the switch back to winter plummeting
temperatures before some light snow moves through Monday morning.

Starting off with the next few hours, a surface low over north
central KS works its way north and eastward through the afternoon
and overnight. A large area of instability driven by swift southerly
warm air advection and bounded by a moisture boundary across central
KS works its way into E KS and W MO. The triple point of the low is
the largest concern due to the interactions and forcing of all the
boundaries. Showers and thunderstorms this morning have slowed the
progression of warm air northward which slightly lowers severe
potential; however, it has also moved the concern further south
toward the MO/IA border. Therefore, areas across northern MO,
primarily north of US-36 remain in a favorable environment for
strong to severe storms. High winds above 65 MPH and 1-1.5 inch hail
continue to be the primary concerns. An isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out with a small bulge in the moisture boundary working its
way into far NW MO. Ample shear and instability above 1000 J/kg K
reinforce the environment. The largest uncertainty at the moment is
the storm motions compared to the push of warm air mentioned
earlier. Storm motions around 50-60kts allude to storms quickly
moving into a cooler environment which results in more elevated
convection reducing tornado chances. However, this does not
significant reduce the wind and hail hazards which are the primary
threats.

Further south the cold front is expected to lag behind the moisture
boundary. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected
to form southward along the moisture boundary to the west and work
its way through the region this afternoon and evening. These storms
are expected to be weaker than those to the north; however, an
isolated strong cell with gusty winds and sub severe hail is
possible. Chances for precipitation decrease as you move further
south along the KS/MO border.

On top of all of this, southerly winds around 20-25 MPH with gusts
over 40 MPH continue into the overnight. Expectations are for winds
to remain below Wind Advisory criteria; however, if post frontal
winds are faster than anticipated, a wind advisory may be needed for
the overnight. Winds are expected to slow down before sunrise
tomorrow morning.

But wait, there's more! Behind this cold front, air temperatures
traumatically decrease into The 50s Sunday, then 40s Monday.
Overnight Sunday into Monday, another wave moves to the southeastern
MO which brings chances for light rain and snow. Snow accumulations
are expected to be relatively minor with most places being 0.2-0.5
inches. Areas further north may see near an inch of snow
accumulation. A break from the activity comes Tuesday and Wednesday
when sunshine returns and temperatures rebound into the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 549 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

Scattered thunderstorms continue to the east of the terminals as a
front extends along I-35. These storms are moving to the east rapidly
and are expected to be clear of the terminals within the hour.
There is a large stratus deck across northern KS. This area of
clouds is anticipated to move to the north and east; however, it
may clip some of the northern terminals.

Gusty winds persist through the period with sustained winds around
15-25 kts with gusts reaching 30-40 kts. Breezy conditions persist
through the evening gradually dissipating during the overnight
before subsiding around 10 kts Sunday. Clouds clear out for the
morning before filling in ahead of another system Sunday
afternoon/evening.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 355 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

Southerly winds have been sustained at 20-25 MPH with gusts
reaching 30-40 MPH. Winds have been gradually shifting toward the
southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds are expected
to continue to shift northwesterly once the front passes. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected as the front moves through;
however, dry air and gusty winds behind the front keeps fire
weather concerns elevated through the overnight. Winds relax
towards sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...Pesel
Fire Weather...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
332 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-060945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
332 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Elevated fire weather concerns expected today as afternoon highs
 warm back into the 60s and 70s with gusting winds up to 35 to 40
 MPH.

 Strong to severe storms are possible Saturday evening with damaging
 winds and hail up to the size of a quarter the main threats. A
 isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 Rain is expected to change over to snow Sunday night into Monday...
 minor snow accumulations are possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
559 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W STANLEY             38.85N 94.74W
03/05/2022  M59 MPH          JOHNSON            KS   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
601 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             1 W TRENTON             40.08N 93.64W
03/05/2022  E0.70 INCH       GRUNDY             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
603 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             1 ENE CHILLICOTHE       39.80N 93.54W
03/05/2022  M1.00 INCH       LIVINGSTON         MO   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             1 SSE LEE'S SUMMIT      38.90N 94.37W
03/05/2022  E0.70 INCH       JACKSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

BT