Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
655 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

Message of the Day

- A line of storms is expected to move through the area tonight
between 9 PM - 5 AM. Severe weather is very possible with damaging
winds up to 70 mph, hail up to ping-pong ball sized, and a tornado
or two all being concerns. Highest risk for severe weather is for
areas west of a line from Bethany, MO down to Butler, MO.

Today's convection has moved out, leaving everyone dry. In western
KS, the surface low is strengthening and moving east, creating
breezy conditions. The southeasterly winds will gust up to 35 mph
this afternoon and evening. The southerly flow and clouds breaking
up a little this afternoon will help temperatures rise into the 70s
for most of the area and mid 60s for those in northeast MO. Warmer
air is also filtering in around 750 mb, creating a cap across the
area. This will keep us dry for the remainder of the afternoon and
evening hours.

Tonight, the upper level trough, currently over the Rockies will
move into the Midwest and become negatively tilted. At the same time
the LLJ will strengthen over the region and the surface low and cold
front will start pushing through. Storms are forecast to develop
initially out in central KS/NE and then move east, eventually
forming a line. The line of storms is expected to reach far
northwest MO/northeast KS between 9-10 PM tonight, the I-35 corridor
between 11 PM FRI - 12 AM SAT, and Kirksville down to Clinton
between 12 AM - 3 AM Saturday morning. Surface based CAPE around
2000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 25-30 kts support the line
being strong to severe. However, instability will weaken greatly
as the line moves east, so the highest risk for severe weather
will reside in areas west of a line from Bethany, MO down to
Butler, MO. Damaging winds up to 70 mph are the main concern with
the line with DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Hail up to ping-pong ball
sized is also possible with moderate mid-level lapse rates. A
tornado or two are possible as well. 0-3 km shear is around 35 kts
right now and looks like it could be perpendicular enough to the
line for rotation being a possibility. Again, our enhanced risk
from SPC is mainly for damaging winds. The greatest tornado and
hail threat is west in NWS Topeka's area. Storms will be done in
northwest MO/northeast KS by 1 AM, the KC metro by 3 AM, and out
of our area entirely by 6 AM.

Saturday will be dry with the clouds clearing out. It'll be cooler
and breezy behind the front. Highs are forecast to be in the 60s and
low 70s with westerly winds gusting between 35-40 mph. High pressure
remains in place for Sunday with similar temperatures and wind gusts
up to 30 mph. The pattern becomes active again next week with a
couple of chances for showers and storms starting Monday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 653 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

Currently gusty southeasterly winds at all terminals under a mid
level cloud deck. The leading edge of a squall line is expected to
move through STJ between 3z and 4z and the KC metro terminals
between roughly 330z and 430z tonight. This leading edge will
produce frequent wind gusts to 40 knots with an occasional gusts
as high as 60 knots along with heavy rain, frequent lightning, and
possibly some small hail. Behind the main line, stratiform rain
and the occasional lightning strike will linger for a few hours
before exiting to the east. Winds will turn southwesterly behind
the line/cold front, with gusts up to 22 knots continuing. Aside
from some brief periods of MVFR CIGs during the storms, VFR
conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...BMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
445 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-300945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
445 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Morning thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits.

Strong southerly winds could gust to near 30 mph this afternoon.

 There is a chance for severe weather on Friday night with all modes
 of severe weather possible including damaging winds, large hail,
 and a few tornadoes. In additional to the severe weather threat,
 heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and river flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
922 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 PM     HAIL             4 S EFFINGHAM           39.47N 95.40W
04/29/2022  E0.70 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
923 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0913 PM     HAIL             4 E ARRINGTON           39.47N 95.46W
04/29/2022  E0.70 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
936 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     HAIL             3 W CUMMINGS            39.46N 95.31W
04/29/2022  E0.70 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
941 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0933 PM     HAIL             1 SSE DE SOTO           38.96N 94.95W
04/29/2022  E0.70 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
943 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     HAIL             2 W LEWIS AND CLARK VIL 39.55N 95.10W
04/29/2022  E1.00 INCH       BUCHANAN           MO   PUBLIC

&&

BT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
954 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             PARKVILLE               39.20N 94.68W
04/29/2022  E0.88 INCH       PLATTE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

BT