Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
636 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 402 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

It is shaping up to be a fairly active week of weather ahead,
especially tonight into Saturday. Here are the key messages...

- A broad area of precipitation is slowly moving across northern
  MO and eastern KS. These are expected to move in around sunrise
  and continue through MO this morning.

- Strong to severe storms are expected to develop across central
  KS this afternoon. These storms are expected to form into a
  line and move across E KS and MO during the overnight hours.
  Primary threats are high winds and hail. An isolated tornado
  cannot be ruled out.

- It is imperative that you have multiple ways to receive weather
  warnings; especially as these strong to severe storms are
  expected to move through during the overnight hours.

Detailed Discussion

Showers and thunderstorms remain around the area this morning. There
are 2 distinct regions of thunderstorm development. The first is
across far NE KS and northern MO. Initially starting in southern NE,
these storms have been sustained by a subtle warm front across
north central MO and widespread isentropic ascent across the
region. This complex of storms is expected to continue its
southeasterly track along this subtle baroclinic zone. The second
area of storms is across east central KS at the exit region of
the LLJ. Convergence at the exit region combined with the
isentropic ascent has initiated these thunderstorms. These storms
are expected to move eastward into W MO this morning around
sunrise. Storms are expected to gradually weaken as they move east
and the near storm environment becomes less favorable.

Being in the SE quadrant of the storm system as it moves toward the
north and east has it pros and cons. The pro is that the afternoon
looks fairly pleasant across much of the area. As low lever flow
dumps warm air into the region behind this morning's rain, the weak
warm front remains along a line from Tarkio SE through Moberly. This
is thanks in part to the storms that roll through this morning and
the residual cloud cover from them. Areas to the south of this
boundary should see high temperatures in the 70s with areas far
south potentially nearing 80 degrees. To the north and east of the
front highs reach the mid to upper 60s. This strong push of warm air
brings with it breezy conditions with ambient wind gusts around 25-
30 MPH.

The con is that strong to severe storms are anticipated overnight
tonight (Friday into Saturday). As warm air funnels into central KS
a dry line forms between dry leeward air and the warm moist Gulf
flow. A cold front eventually catches up to this dry line initiating
convection across east central KS (between Salina and Topeka).
Discrete cells merge into a line after sunset as the cold front
accelerates across eastern KS. This line is expected to roll
through far E KS and MO through the overnight hours. CAMs continue
to maintain adequate shear and instability to maintain
thunderstorms as they move toward the east and southeast. However,
more recent runs have been a bit more uncertain with initiation
and storm mode due to the the slower than expected movement of
this morning's convection and residual cloud cover. Many model
solutions want to shift the formation of the line further east
toward Lawrence, KS adding to the uncertainties. Regardless of
storm mode, the threat for strong to severe storms overnight
Friday into Saturday remains with the primary threats being high
winds, hail, and flash flooding. An isolated tornado along the
line cannot be ruled out.

It is important to stress 2 things for tonight into Saturday. 1)
Please ensure that you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings and information; especially while you are sleeping. 2)
Please be cautious around flooded areas. We have received a fair
amount of precipitation recently with March by itself receiving
about 2.5 inches above average rainfall. Therefore, the ground is
sufficiently saturated and flash flood accumulation thresholds have
gradually decreased through the season. PWAT values are expected to
be around an inch or greater. All of this means that flash flooding
is possible. Please remember to turn around, don't drown.

Fortunately, the weather looks to take a break for the weekend with
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms around the fringes
of the area Saturday. High temperatures remain in the 60s and 70s.
Westerly winds remain breezy with gusts around 25-30 MPH
anticipated. Early next week another leeward system rolls across the
southern Plains bringing more showers and thunderstorms. Continued
perturbations in the upper level flow means multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next 7 days.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

Showers and thunderstorms remain in the area through mid morning
gradually weakening as the sun rises. Gusty southerly winds
return this afternoon sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts around 25
kts. CIGs lift to VFR before lowering to MVFR in the evening ahead
of another round of thunderstorms overnight Friday into Saturday.
Strong to severe storms are anticipated during this period with
the primary hazards being strong winds and hail.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
445 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-300945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
445 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Morning thunderstorms are expected to remain below severe limits.

Strong southerly winds could gust to near 30 mph this afternoon.

 There is a chance for severe weather on Friday night with all modes
 of severe weather possible including damaging winds, large hail,
 and a few tornadoes. In additional to the severe weather threat,
 heavy rain may lead to flash flooding and river flooding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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