Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
632 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

Key Points:

* Severe storms are possible tonight, with the main severe threat
  being strong wind gusts.

* Cooler conditions with less wind expected Sunday-Tuesday.

* Breezy conditions return Wednesday with the potential for a few
  showers late week.

Detailed discussion...

Weakly capped environment across the area ahead of a cold front
moving though the region tonight. Several different boundaries
across the region may serve as the focusing mechanism for showers
and thunderstorms across the area. Band of showers/isolated
thunderstorms from the KC metro to south central Missouri as of 20Z
is expected to shift east, but remain non-severe with updrafts
remaining very elevated with capped near surface layer. There is
also an area of convergence most notable across western Iowa ahead
of the main cold front. Cumulus near Omaha NE continue to develop
and expect scatter-broken segments of thunderstorms to develop by 22
Z along this boundary.  These storms should work towards northwest
Missouri after 2130Z, with with strong winds and hail as primary
severe threat, but a brief tornado can not be ruled out with 0-1
helicity of 150-200 m2/s2. Instability will be the limiting factor
with this event, with only a small window of surface based CAPE
values of 1000-1300 J/kg. Main cold front is expected to catch up to
this area of convergence across eastern Kansas and potential for
additional convection to develop towards 00Z lifting northeast into
Missouri this evening.  With 50+ knots of wind just a few thousand
feet above the surface, won't take much for severe wind to surface
in this type of environment.  In addition, storms are expected to
rapidly shift northeast, so unless training becomes a significant
issue, am not expecting flooding concerns.

Cooler conditions are expected tomorrow with the front crawling
southeast across southeastern Missouri.  Generally expect dry
conditions, but could have lingering cloud cover across central
Missouri closer to the front.

Cool conditions continue into the early portions of the week with
surface high pressure building into the Western Plains.  This will
result in north- northeast winds (though much lighter than we have
seen much of this spring).  Warmer and windier conditions return on
Wednesday as another trough is expected to develop just east of the
Rockies.  As the upper trough shifts east, potential for periodic
showers late in the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

A line of thunderstorm is steadily making its way across E KS and
W MO. The primary hazards are gusty winds and frequent lightning;
some small hail is also possible. Multiple lines of showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to move through the region over the
next few hours as a cold front catches up to the boundary where
the current line of storms resides.

VFR conditions return after the storms move off to the east with
winds turning out of the west-northwest behind the front. Some
diurnal mixing is anticipated through the day Sunday; however,
winds will not be as strong as they were Saturday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
515 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Very strong south winds are expected today with wind gusts to 50 mph
 likely.

 There is a chance for severe storms this evening. Damaging winds
 are the main threat.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
707 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

KSZ025-102-103-MOZ020-028-240045-
Doniphan KS-Atchison KS-Leavenworth KS-Platte MO-Buchanan MO-
707 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Doniphan, northwestern Leavenworth, Atchison, southwestern Buchanan
and northwestern Platte Counties through 745 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Valley Falls, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Leavenworth, Atchison, Weston, Effingham, Rushville, Lancaster,
Easton, Muscotah, Denton, Lewis And Clark Village, Doniphan, De Kalb,
Severance, Farmington, Huron, Iatan, Fort Leavenworth, Stillings,
Beverly and Lowemont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and northwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3961 9556 3966 9548 3965 9534 3973 9534
      3981 9520 3962 9487 3933 9480 3926 9518
      3942 9518 3942 9557
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 238DEG 49KT 3933 9546

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Leighton

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