Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2022

Key Message:

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible late this evening as a
  line of storms moves eastward through portions of the area.

Warm front continues to lift northward, currently entering far
southwestern sections of the CWA. Moisture within the warm sector is
largely modified in the mid 50s. While a capping inversion has
limited convective development this afternoon, increasing large
scale ascent and frontal forcing will allow thunderstorms to quickly
develop over portions of central/eastern Kansas late this afternoon
into the early evening. Storm mode will initially favor semi-
discrete high-based cells before transitioning to QLCS during the
evening hours. Instability will be a limiting factor as the line
of storms progresses eastward into the CWA, with a gradual
decrease in storm intensity anticipated east of the KC Metro Area.
An increasing LLJ this evening will help enhance low-level shear,
with ~200 J/kg of SRH expected as the line enters the forecast
area. A brief tornado embedded within the line cannot be ruled
out, assuming boundary layer cooling/decoupling does not occur too
quickly. The highest threat for severe weather will be across
eastern Kansas into the western quarter of Missouri, where in
addition to the brief spin-up, quarter-sized hail and wind gusts
up to 60 mph will be possible. The most likely window for severe
weather within our CWA will occur between 7pm and midnight. Flash
flooding looks to be a low threat, with the progressive nature
expected with the most robust convection and 1 and 3 hour FFG
remaining 1.75" to 2.50" respectively.

Post-frontal precipitation chances hang around for a good portion of
Wednesday as another piece of energy rotates into the area. With the
clouds/precip and CAA, a much cooler day is expected with
temperatures steady or slowly falling during the day, mainly in the
40s by mid/late afternoon. Cannot rule out a short window of
precipitation transitioning to a light snow late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning, albeit no accumulations are expected. Next
chance of rain returns Friday night as another shortwave trough
moves across the central CONUS.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2022

VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate quickly as a line of
showers and thunderstorms moves in from the west. Storms are
expected to enter the vicinity of the terminals in the next couple
of hours. Primary hazards include high winds, quarter inch hail,
and heavy rainfall. CIGS and VIS are expected to decrease
significantly, especially in heavy downpours.

Thunderstorms are expected to vacate the terminals around midnight
with rain lingering through the morning. Gusty winds persist even
outside of thunderstorms with gusts around 20-30 kts anticipated.
Southerly winds become northwesterly behind a cold front which is
expected to move through around 10Z-12Z. Precipitation is
moves out near midday; however, MVFR CIGs hang around through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
240 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-301945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
240 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

 Southerly winds gusting up to 40 mph are expected this afternoon.

 Severe weather is possible today between 7 PM and 4 AM across the
 entire forecast area. Greatest chance for severe weather is along
 the MO/KS border. Damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to
 quarter-sized are the main concerns. Can't rule out a few brief
 tornadoes tonight, as well. Showers and storms continue Wednesday,
 but no severe weather is expected.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 A dusting of light snow is possible Thursday morning north of HWY
 36.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo