Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Kansas City, MO

412 
WWUS53 KEAX 052239
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
439 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

MOC075-081-227-052249-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220305T2245Z/
Worth MO-Gentry MO-Harrison MO-
439 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WORTH...
NORTHEASTERN GENTRY AND NORTHWESTERN HARRISON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
445 PM CST...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However small hail 
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for north central
and northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4013 9429 4017 9446 4051 9423 4050 9389
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 221DEG 46KT 4037 9417 

$$

Blair

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
353 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 321 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across far northern MO
(north of US-36). Primary hazards include high winds and hail. An
isolated tornado is possible

- Weaker showers and thunderstorms are expected south of US-36.
Gusty winds and sub-severe hail are still possible.

- Breezy conditions are expected to continue through the overnight.
Sustained with at 20-25 MPH with gusts 30-40 MPH are expected.

- Breezy conditions and dry air both ahead and behind the cold front
increases fire weather concerns. Burning is discourage.

DETAILED DISCUSSION

A fairly active weather pattern is expected over the next 48 hours.
Strong southerly winds have pushed temperatures up into the 70's
most areas. A strong cold front to the west moves through this
afternoon bring chances for showers and thunderstorms with
potentially strong to severe storms expected across northern MO.
This front also flips the switch back to winter plummeting
temperatures before some light snow moves through Monday morning.

Starting off with the next few hours, a surface low over north
central KS works its way north and eastward through the afternoon
and overnight. A large area of instability driven by swift southerly
warm air advection and bounded by a moisture boundary across central
KS works its way into E KS and W MO. The triple point of the low is
the largest concern due to the interactions and forcing of all the
boundaries. Showers and thunderstorms this morning have slowed the
progression of warm air northward which slightly lowers severe
potential; however, it has also moved the concern further south
toward the MO/IA border. Therefore, areas across northern MO,
primarily north of US-36 remain in a favorable environment for
strong to severe storms. High winds above 65 MPH and 1-1.5 inch hail
continue to be the primary concerns. An isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out with a small bulge in the moisture boundary working its
way into far NW MO. Ample shear and instability above 1000 J/kg K
reinforce the environment. The largest uncertainty at the moment is
the storm motions compared to the push of warm air mentioned
earlier. Storm motions around 50-60kts allude to storms quickly
moving into a cooler environment which results in more elevated
convection reducing tornado chances. However, this does not
significant reduce the wind and hail hazards which are the primary
threats.

Further south the cold front is expected to lag behind the moisture
boundary. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected
to form southward along the moisture boundary to the west and work
its way through the region this afternoon and evening. These storms
are expected to be weaker than those to the north; however, an
isolated strong cell with gusty winds and sub severe hail is
possible. Chances for precipitation decrease as you move further
south along the KS/MO border.

On top of all of this, southerly winds around 20-25 MPH with gusts
over 40 MPH continue into the overnight. Expectations are for winds
to remain below Wind Advisory criteria; however, if post frontal
winds are faster than anticipated, a wind advisory may be needed for
the overnight. Winds are expected to slow down before sunrise
tomorrow morning.

But wait, there's more! Behind this cold front, air temperatures
traumatically decrease into The 50s Sunday, then 40s Monday.
Overnight Sunday into Monday, another wave moves to the southeastern
MO which brings chances for light rain and snow. Snow accumulations
are expected to be relatively minor with most places being 0.2-0.5
inches. Areas further north may see near an inch of snow
accumulation. A break from the activity comes Tuesday and Wednesday
when sunshine returns and temperatures rebound into the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

MVFR conditions are anticipated for a majority of the period.
Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected in the area
for the next hour or two. An area of clearing to the west is
forecasted to move over the region which may lift CIGs into VFR
for a few hours ahead of a cold front approaching from central KS.
CIGs are expected to lower ahead of the frontal passage; however,
dry air behind the front is expected to keep coverage relatively
scattered.

Winds are expected to be gusty through the period with gusts
around 30-35 knots anticipated. Winds start southerly before
transitioning through westerly to northerly behind the front.
Winds are expected to dissipate near sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Issued at 355 AM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

Southerly winds have been sustained at 20-25 MPH with gusts
reaching 30-40 MPH. Winds have been gradually shifting toward the
southwest ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds are expected
to continue to shift northwesterly once the front passes. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected as the front moves through;
however, dry air and gusty winds behind the front keeps fire
weather concerns elevated through the overnight. Winds relax
towards sunrise tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

Discussion...Pesel
Aviation...Pesel
Fire Weather...Pesel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
332 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-060945-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
332 AM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Elevated fire weather concerns expected today as afternoon highs
 warm back into the 60s and 70s with gusting winds up to 35 to 40
 MPH.

 Strong to severe storms are possible Saturday evening with damaging
 winds and hail up to the size of a quarter the main threats. A
 isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 Rain is expected to change over to snow Sunday night into Monday...
 minor snow accumulations are possible.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
252 PM CST SAT MAR 5 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             WESTBORO                40.54N 95.32W
03/05/2022  M0.88 INCH       ATCHISON           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
302 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

MOZ002-011-012-052130-
Holt MO-Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
302 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Holt,
central Nodaway and northern Andrew Counties through 330 PM CST...

At 302 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maitland, or 12 miles southwest of Maryville, moving northeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Maryville, Ravenwood, Maitland, Barnard, Conception Junction, Graham,
Pickering, Clyde and Arkoe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for northwestern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4038 9460 4030 9460 4007 9497 4020 9513
      4053 9479
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 224DEG 30KT 4019 9499

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
337 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

MOZ004-012-013-052200-
De Kalb MO-Gentry MO-Andrew MO-
337 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Gentry,
southeastern Andrew and northwestern DeKalb Counties through 400 PM
CST...

At 337 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Country Club Villa, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Savannah, Country Club Villa, Country Club, King City, Union Star,
Amazonia, Cosby, Ford City and Helena.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 29 between mile markers 52 and 58.
 Interstate 229 between mile markers 10 and 14.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for northwestern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 9422 3982 9465 3982 9487 3989 9491
      4013 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 222DEG 45KT 3989 9476

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Blair

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
416 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

MOZ003>005-052245-
Worth MO-Gentry MO-Harrison MO-
416 PM CST Sat Mar 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Worth,
Gentry and northwestern Harrison Counties through 445 PM CST...

At 416 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Albany, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Albany, Eagleville, New Hampton, Darlington, Gentry, Allendale,
Denver, Martinsville and Hatfield.

This includes Interstate 35 in Missouri between mile markers 105 and
112.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for north central
and northwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4054 9388 4011 9433 4014 9453 4057 9428
      4057 9400
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 221DEG 46KT 4020 9439

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Blair