Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 307 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2022

Key Messages:

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible late afternoon into the evening
  hours across northern/northeastern MO.

- Anomalously hot temperatures expected through Tuesday with
  record highs and record high lows possible.

- A cold front is expected to move through the region sometime on
  Wednesday. Exact timing is uncertain at this time.

- Much cooler behind the cold front for Thursday and Friday.

Discussion:

The current weather pattern is characterized by a 592 dam mid
level high centered over northern Texas with a shortwave trough
situated to our north. A cold front is draped from western Lake
Superior to the southwest through Iowa and into southeastern
Nebraska. Conditions across the region this afternoon are warm and
humid with some isolated showers/storms. An area of 50+ knot
westerly winds at 500 mb is expected to develop over Iowa later
this afternoon in  with the aforementioned shortwave trough
moving through. This paired with 3000 J/kg of surface based CAPE
will help generate thunderstorms along and south of the cold front
across southern Iowa late afternoon/early evening. The most
recent trends from Convection Allowing Models suggests that the
vast majority of the severe weather threat should stay out of our
region, but portions of far northern and northeastern Missouri
could see severe storms somewhere in the 7 to 10 pm window
tonight. CAMs earlier hinted at perhaps a storm or two as far west
as northwestern MO but have recently backed off on this. Here in
the KC metro, we should stay dry today outside of the patchy areas
of light showers/sprinkles. While forecasts called for highs in
the mid 90s today we may stay a few degrees cooler thanks to more
cloud cover than expected.

By tomorrow, impacts from the shortwave trough will move out and
we will be firmly within the influence of the stout mid level high
centered over the TX/OK border and accompanying ridge encompassing
much of the Central US. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast to
reach the mid to even upper 90s for the KC metro and areas along
and south/west of the Missouri River with upper 80s to lower 90s
across northern MO. Overnight lows tomorrow night into Tuesday
morning will also be well above normal to near records. For
Tuesday afternoon the entire region is forecast to see highs in
the mid to even upper 90s, with record highs once again possible.

A large trough and accompanying cold front descends out of Canada
and into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Wednesday and sends
a cold front through the region sometime on Wednesday. Models are
not in complete agreement in regards to the exact timing of the
frontal passage, so forecast high temperatures on Wednesday are uncertain
right now as a faster passage means cooler temperatures and a
slower passage means hotter temperatures (NBM 25th percentile high
at KCI is 77 for Wednesday and the 75th percentile is 90). There
will be a slight chance for showers and storms Wednesday evening
into Wednesday night in association with the front.

Much cooler temperatures and lower humidity will move in behind
the front, as high temperatures on Thursday are currently forecast
to range from the mid 60s across northern Missouri to the low 70s
south of I-70 with dewpoints in the low 50s. Temperatures should
increase a few degrees on Friday with highs returning to above
normal by Saturday. There will be another chance for showers
Friday morning and afternoon.

&&

.Climate...
Issued at 555 PM CDT SAT SEP 17 2022

Kansas City Record High and Record High Low Information

Monday 9/19:
	- Forecast Low: 	73 F
	- Record High Low:	77 F (1931)
	- Forecast High: 	95 F
	- Record High:		95 F (1954)

Tuesday 9/20:
	- Forecast Low: 	76 F
	- Record High Low: 	75 F (1895)
	- Forecast High: 	95 F
	- Record High: 		95 F (1948)

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 620 PM CDT SUN SEP 18 2022

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Most
thunderstorm concerns should exist well northeast of the TAF
sites. South winds will remain breezy through the evening,
decreasing overnight. Some widely scattered storms are expected
through sunset in central and eastern Kansas. At this time, they
are not expected to impact the TAF sites, but will be monitored
closely.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...BMW
Aviation...Kurtz
Climate...Kurtz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
450 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-191000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
450 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered showers and storms will affect eastern KS and western MO,
 as well as central MO this morning. Gusty winds and small hail will
 be possible with these storms.

 Additional storms are expected to develop in IA this evening and
 move southeast into north central and northeastern MO. These storms
 will be capable of damaging winds and hail.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

 Warm and humid condition, with highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal
 and heat index values near 100, will continue through Wednesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
817 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

MOZ007-008-190130-
Schuyler MO-Putnam MO-
817 PM CDT Sun Sep 18 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Putnam
and northern Schuyler Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 816 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lancaster, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Downing and Glenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for north
central and northeastern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4046 9235 4054 9277 4059 9277 4060 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 279DEG 40KT 4057 9253

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kurtz