Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
628 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 324 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2022

Key Points:

* Thunderstorms are expected tonight as cold front moves through the
  area.  A few storms could produce strong wind gusts, locally heavy
  rainfall and small hail.

* Cooler conditions are expected Wednesday & Thursday.

* Heat returns late week with the potential for advisory conditions
  Friday into Saturday.

Detailed discussion...

As of 20Z, cold front bisected Iowa into far southeast Nebraska.
Area of cumulus has developed immediately ahead of the front across
Iowa. With additional heating, expect capping inversion to continue
to weaken.  Surface based CAPE of 3000-3500 J/kg should allow for
rapid development of storms; however, limited wind shear may make it
difficult for storms to organize sufficiently.  Expect storms to be
capable of producing strong wind gusts with 1500-1600 J.kg of
downdraft CAPE. With relatively warm environment, will take 50 dbz
of 40K+ to get one inch hail at the surface.  With tops expected
around 45K, agree with SPC that the main threat will be damaging
wind gusts.  In addition, could see locally heavy rainfall with deep
warm cloud depth, and precipitable water values near 1.7" (near 90th
percentile for this time of year).

Threat for storms is expected to follow the front southward
overnight. Lingering mid level cloud cover along with 850 hpa
temperatures cooling 3-5 degrees C will result in cooler
temperatures Wednesday.

Ridge riding shortwave is expected on Thursday, bringing an
additional round of showers and thunderstorms.  While there is wind
shear, instability is very limited so severe weather is not
expected.

Upper level ridge is expected to strengthen Friday into Saturday as
surface ridge across the central plains works south into the Gulf
Coast.  Potential for storms both Thursday and Friday night on the
nose of the low level jet developing across the central plains
feeding into northern Missouri/southern Iowa.

Cold front associated with trough moving along the US Canadian
border is expected to approach and move through the area on Saturday
afternoon. Cooler more seasonal temperatures are expected post-
frontal early next week with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2022

Main aviation concerns will be in the next 6 hours as
thunderstorms develop along a slowly southward moving cold front.
Isolated to scattered storms move through this evening with winds
becoming light northerly behind the front later tonight. Within
any storm expect brief IFR conditions if a terminal is impacted.
But otherwise, conditions will be VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ002>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046.

&&

Discussion...BT
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
501 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-221015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
501 AM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Hazardous heat is expected today with temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s and heat index values around 105F. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected this evening starting across far NW MO and
NE KS moving SE through the overnight hours. An isolated strong to
severe storm is possible with the most likely hazards being high
winds and hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Hazardous heat is expected to return Friday and Saturday. Heat
indices look to be around 100F-107F.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

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