River Flood Warning 19, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
626 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

Overview:

Scattered showers will continue to be possible through this
afternoon. An additional round of stronger storms will be possible
tonight with strong winds and hail as the main threat. Heavy rain
could lead localized flooding. Dry conditions will return after
midnight. Another mid-week system will bring additions rounds of
showers and thunderstorms.

Today:

Scattered shower activity continues to push into the area today. A
few rumbles of thunder will also continue to be possible. For much
of the day, these showers have been struggling to overcome dry
air, but we are starting to see more widespread activity spread
into the area for the next few hours.

A low currently situated over central Kansas will continue
pushing to the northeast this evening. Ahead of it, a warm front
has been gradually pushing to the north and expected to stall our
somewhere near our southern CWA. How far north the warm front can
reach this afternoon is a limiting factor in the afternoons
severe potential. Additionally, morning activity has limited any
recovery in instability. With those factors still in question,
the severe threat this evening still remains quite conditional.
The highest severe threat looks to remain just south of the KC
Metro where the warm front will likely stall out. Highest threat
will be damaging winds and large hail. Thunderstorm activity will
remain possible across much of the area (beyond area where severe
is possible). Precipitable water amounts look to be around 1.5
across the area. With already saturated ground, the strongest
storms will pose a flooding threat, especially in urban area. A
cold front is expected to push through the area by midnight will
push storms out of the area.

Tonight and Tuesday:

Dry conditions are expected to return late Monday night through
Tuesday. We will remain on the gloomy side through Tuesday, with
clouds and cooler conditions lingering behind the passage of the
cold front. Highs on Tuesday will top out in the lower 60s.

Wednesday and Thursday:

Dry conditions will be short-lived this week with another trough
pushing its way into our area by Wednesday. A bit of a blocking
pattern briefly sets up over us which will lead to lingering
rainfall chances through thursday. Additional heavy rain and
flooding is the biggest concern with the mid-week system with an
additional 1-2 inches possible.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2022

MVFR/IFR conditions expected, scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms impacting TAF sites through 03/04Z. Cigs slow to
improve during mid/late afternoon to VFR.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...HB
Aviation...Blair

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