River Flood Warning 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
717 PM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 353 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2022

Message of the Day

- Isolated to scattered rain this afternoon, widespread rain
  tonight. Half an inch up to 1 inch of rain is possible through
  tomorrow morning.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon
  into the evening. Isolated hail, locally damaging winds, and a
  tornado or two are all possible.

Observations show lower 70s in our eastern counties and upper 50s in
our western counties this afternoon. This difference is by and large
due to the thicker clouds and rainfall that have moved into our
western areas. Scattered light rain has reached the areas along
the MO/KS border. Rain will continue to move north and east
through the afternoon and evening, with everyone seeing rain by
midnight. Rain will be moderate at times. Isolated thunder and
lightning have been observed in our far southern counties today.
The chances for isolated thunder and lightning remain for the rest
of the day and tonight, however, the better instability will stay
south of our area. Half an inch up to 1 inch of rain is possible
through tomorrow morning. The higher rain amounts are expected
along the MO/KS border.

A dry slot, or at least dryish slot moves into much of our area
early tomorrow morning. Those along and east of I-35 are more likely
to see a break from the rain Tuesday morning with drier conditions
and less lift. However, soundings do show some continued
saturation in the low levels for these areas, so some periods of
drizzle remain possible. Those west of I-35 are more likely to
keep seeing rain, albeit lighter rain.

Scattered storms are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon, mainly
along and east of I-35. A few storms could become strong to severe.
The closed upper level low will be just to our west with the surface
low and intersection of the cold front and warm front near the MO/KS
border. This pattern tends to be supportive of low topped storms and
isolated severe weather. Dew points will reach the low to mid 50s,
instability will be around 1000 J/kg, deep layer shear will be around
60-80 kts, and mid level lapse rates will be steep. Isolated hail
and damaging winds, and a tornado or two are all possible. Best
chances for severe weather will occur between 1 PM and 8 PM.

The large scale system will be slow to move through the region, so
rain chances will continue Tuesday night through Wednesday night for
the entire area. Rain chances finally exit the area Wednesday night.
Between the three days, 1-2 inches of rain is expected. The cold
front moving through Tuesday will bring colder temperatures to the
area. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will be in the 40s with lows in
the 30s. Dry conditions and warmer temperatures return for Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 709 PM CDT MON MAR 21 2022

Currently moderate rain with MVFR VSBYs at the terminals. This
will generally continue through the evening hours before rain
comes to an end by around 8z tonight. However, after rain ends,
CIGs are expected to become IFR through the overnight into Tuesday
morning before improving to MVFR around 16z. Isolated showers and
storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...BMW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
354 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-220900-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
354 AM CDT Mon Mar 21 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Rainfall expected to move into the area Monday afternoon.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday
afternoon. The primary threat will be hail and strong winds. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo