Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1201 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 220 PM CDT TUE APR 5 2022

Today:

Today a upper trough and surface low will drift to the north of our
area. A warm front has gradually pushed north of the area today and
has brought southerly winds up to 25 mph. We will remain in the warm
sector through the afternoon with temps rising to near 70. While
significant clearing is unlikely by this afternoon ML CAPE will
increase to 500-1000 J/KG across the area as temperatures warm
and gulf moisture streams north. Additionally ample bulk shear of
50+ knots will be in place today. By the mid afternoon, the
surface low will track to the northeast of the area dragging a
cold front behind. As the cold front slides into the area, expect
scattered thunderstorms activity to develop along the front.
Expect this to remain to the east of the Kansas City Metro and
primarily impact our far south and eastern counties in the
CWA.These storms have the potential to be strong to severe. While
severe weather will remain isolated, some could see hail, strong
winds, or even an isolated brief tornado. Outside of the severe
weather threat, scattered showers are still possible for the
remainder of the area lagging behind the cold front. All this
activity will shift out of the area overnight.

Wednesday:

Quiet weather will return for the remainder of the week, but the low
will be very slow to relinquish impacts on the area. Cooler air
will continue pushing south on Wednesday with temperatures
expected to be mainly in the upper 50s. Dry air is expected to
push into the area on Wednesday. We will also see winds out of the
northwest increase during the day as the gradient tightens at the
base of the trough. Winds could gust as high as 35 to 40 mph
during the afternoon. This will create elevated fire conditions,
especially in our far western area where dewpoints will be lower.
Fire weather concerns will diminish overnight as winds slacken and
relative humidity increases Wednesday night.

Thursday:

A secondary cold front is expected to push through the area late
Wednesday that will bring and additional shot of cold air to the
area. Overnight, expect temperatures to fall into the upper 30s
by Thursday morning. Temperatures will only rise to around 50
during the day and winds will remain quite breezy through the
afternoon. Gusts up to 30 to 35 mph will be possible. This will
make for a fairly unpleasant day for those with outdoor plans
Thursday.

Friday and beyond:

Cold air will continue pushing into the area Thursday night and
Friday. Early Friday morning will see low temperatures near
freezing. Temperatures will struggle to get out of the 40s during
the day Friday. Another cold night is expected as we head into
Saturday morning with temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 20s
across the area.

We will more seasonal temperatures return by with weekend as ridging
moves over the area and the low finally pushes toward the east
coast. Temperatures Saturday should be near 60. 70s are expected
to return for Sunday and continue into the start of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1158 PM  CDT TUE APR 5 2022

Shower activity across the area is expected to sag south and east
over the next few hours. VFR conditions through the period;
however, strong northwest winds are expected to develop 15-16Z on
Wednesday and remain throughout the remainder of the daylight
hours. Surface may try to decouple tomorrow evening decreasing the
gust potential, but will be a struggle to get winds to relax
through the evening hours.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...HB
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
553 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-061100-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
553 AM CDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms possible this
afternoon. Better chance for scattered strong thunderstorms in
central Missouri, with small hail and 30 to 50 mph winds possible
with these storms.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Dry and gusty northwest winds are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
The humidity will drop to around 20 to 25 percent on Wednesday with
northwest winds around 25 to 35 mph. Similar conditions are expected
Thursday with slightly higher humidity in the 30 to 40 percent range.
The dry and gusty conditions will bring some fire weather concerns
both days. Outdoor burning is discouraged Wednesday and Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo