Frost Advisory 6, NWS Kansas City, MO

Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Holt County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1240 PM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 405 AM CDT THU OCT 13 2022

Key Message:

- Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions this afternoon.

A cooler and drier airmass has built into the region as of early
this morning. Main concern today remains on potential for fire
weather conditions this afternoon as the advection of drier
air/mixing will lead to minimum relative humidity values near 20%,
in combination with increasing northwest winds of 15-25 mph with
gusts to 35 mph and somewhat cured fuels, result will be critical
fire weather conditions expected. A Red Flag Warning has been
issued for the entire CWA from noon to 7PM today.

By Friday, a slight increase in moisture and lighter wind speeds
should help mitigate critical fire weather conditions, but still
expect an elevated risk with minimum afternoon RH values falling
near 25-30% and wind speeds of 15-20 mph. Late Friday
afternoon/evening, a weak disturbance is hinted by some model
members to generate scattered showers across northeast Missouri.
Likewise have added slight chance for rain, but do not expect more
than a few hundredths at best with this activity.

Thereafter, the forecast looks dry for the weekend into much of next
week. Temperatures will trend cooler, especially for Monday and
Tuesday, where a widespread freeze will be possible both nights.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT THU OCT 13 2022

VFR conditions through the period. Windy northwest winds are
expected to subside with sunset tonight. Westerly winds will
increase across the region around 15Z Friday. A band of mid level
clouds in the 10-15K level may also work through the region mid-
day Firday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
 011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...BT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
337 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-140845-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
337 AM CDT Thu Oct 13 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 High fire danger is expected today as dry conditions coupled with
 wind gusts out of the northwest to 30 to 40 mph will lead to Red
 Flag Warning conditions from noon until 7PM. Outdoor burning should
 be avoided as anything that does ignite could burn quickly out of
 control.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Gusty west winds to 35 mph on Friday coupled with dry conditions
 will again lead to an elevated fire weather danger.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo