Wind Advisory 9, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Clinton County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Lee County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Clark County, MO

379 
WWUS73 KDVN 041544
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1044 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

IAZ067-078-089-099-ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035-042345-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.221105T0600Z-221105T2100Z/
Muscatine-Louisa-Des Moines-Lee-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-
Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Including the cities of Muscatine, Wapello, Burlington, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, and Macomb
1044 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing showers.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois and east central and southeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ042-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-042345-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.221105T0900Z-221106T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, 
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
1044 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50
  mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing showers.


* WHERE...In Iowa, Dubuque, Jackson, Clinton and Scott Counties. 
  In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

12

726 
WWUS73 KDVN 042032
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
332 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

MOZ010-050445-
/O.EXA.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.221105T0600Z-221105T2100Z/
Clark-
Including the city of Kahoka
332 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph 
  expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing showers.

* WHERE...Clark County.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ067-078-089-099-ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035-050445-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.221105T0600Z-221105T2100Z/
Muscatine-Louisa-Des Moines-Lee-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-
Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-
Including the cities of Muscatine, Wapello, Burlington, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, and Macomb
332 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing 
  showers.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois and east central and southeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ042-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-050445-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.221105T0900Z-221106T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, 
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
332 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing 
  showers.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Dubuque, Jackson, Clinton and Scott Counties. 
  In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

12

204 
WWUS73 KDVN 050201
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
901 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

IAZ067-078-089-099-ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ010-051015-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.221105T0600Z-221105T2100Z/
Muscatine-Louisa-Des Moines-Lee-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-
Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Clark-
Including the cities of Muscatine, Wapello, Burlington, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, and Kahoka
901 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing 
  showers.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois and east central and southeast Iowa.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ042-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-051015-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.221105T0900Z-221106T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, 
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
901 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing 
  showers.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Dubuque, Jackson, Clinton and Scott Counties. 
  In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

093 
WWUS73 KDVN 050906
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
406 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

IAZ067-078-089-099-ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ010-052100-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221105T2100Z/
Muscatine-Louisa-Des Moines-Lee-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-
Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Clark-
Including the cities of Muscatine, Wapello, Burlington, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, and Kahoka
406 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55
  mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing showers.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois, east central and southeast Iowa and northeast 
  Missouri.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ042-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-052100-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, 
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
406 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 
  mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing showers.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Dubuque, Jackson, Clinton and Scott Counties. 
  In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

342 
WWUS73 KDVN 051531
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1031 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

IAZ067-078-089-099-ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ010-052100-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221105T2100Z/
Muscatine-Louisa-Des Moines-Lee-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-
Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Clark-
Including the cities of Muscatine, Wapello, Burlington, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, and Kahoka
1031 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing 
  showers. 

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois, east central and southeast Iowa and northeast 
  Missouri. 

* WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ042-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-052330-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, 
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
1031 AM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...South to southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 
  55 mph expected. Even higher gusts may occur in passing 
  showers. 

* WHERE...In Iowa, Dubuque, Jackson, Clinton and Scott Counties. 
  In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside 
  Counties. 

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

634 
WWUS73 KDVN 051929
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
229 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

IAZ067-078-089-099-ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ010-052100-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221105T2100Z/
Muscatine-Louisa-Des Moines-Lee-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-
Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Clark-
Including the cities of Muscatine, Wapello, Burlington, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, and Kahoka
229 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of north central, northwest and west central 
  Illinois, east central and southeast Iowa and northeast 
  Missouri.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM CDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

IAZ042-054-066-068-ILZ001-002-007-009-060000-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Scott-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Davenport, 
Bettendorf, Galena, Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
229 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Dubuque, Jackson, Clinton and Scott Counties. 
  In Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

994 
WWUS73 KDVN 052057
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
357 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

IAZ068-052200-
/O.CAN.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Scott-
Including the cities of Davenport and Bettendorf
357 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Winds have decreased below advisory criteria and will continue to
diminish through sunset.

$$

IAZ067-078-089-099-ILZ015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ010-052200-
/O.EXP.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221105T2100Z/
Muscatine-Louisa-Des Moines-Lee-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-
Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Clark-
Including the cities of Muscatine, Wapello, Burlington, 
Fort Madison, Moline, Rock Island, Geneseo, Princeton, Hennepin, 
Aledo, Oquawka, Monmouth, Carthage, Macomb, and Kahoka
357 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...
 
Winds have decreased below advisory criteria and will continue to
diminish through sunset.

$$

IAZ042-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-060000-
/O.CON.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Galena, 
Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
357 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph.

* WHERE...In Iowa, Dubuque, Jackson and Clinton Counties. In 
  Illinois, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, Carroll and Whiteside 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. 
  Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may 
  result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

519 
WWUS73 KDVN 052356
NPWDVN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
656 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

IAZ042-054-066-ILZ001-002-007-009-060100-
/O.EXP.KDVN.WI.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-221106T0000Z/
Dubuque-Jackson-Clinton-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-Whiteside-
Including the cities of Dubuque, Maquoketa, Clinton, Galena, 
Freeport, Mount Carroll, and Sterling
656 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

Winds have decreased below advisory criteria and will continue to
diminish, but remain breezy.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1250 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

This afternoon high clouds were leading to sporadic periods of
sun as moisture moved into the area ahead of a longwave trough to
our west. Temperatures were in the upper 60s north and the low to
mid 70s across the south. Boundary layer moisture also increased
as dewpoints were in the 50s today. More WAA and moisture
advection is expected through the overnight and into tomorrow as a
cold front impinges from the north as a strong wave ejects across
the plains and towards us later in the short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Key messages:

1. Guidance is latching onto slower and more 'west' trend in precip.
2. Position of the cold front tomorrow will be the axis for heavy
rain leading up to 00z Saturday.

Discussion:

Overall momentum fields are in good agreement as far as their
overall structure. Timing seems to be different and a slower trend
looks like the better solution now. Will need to see if this
holds up on later runs and overnight. That said, confidence in
heavy rain and threats from heavy rain is high. In the short term,
45 to 55 kt LLJ will begin in earnest tonight. While H85 WAA
(little temp change) doesn't look particularly strong, this should
help keep us warm and good BL moisture into the area. This LLJ
weakens slightly tomorrow before 12z. Then around 15z the LLJ
increases back into the area. CAMs have a noticeable uptick in
showers and storms at that time as well. This LLJ will continue
through the day. Wherever the front is at this time, will be where
the heaviest rain is. Currently, this looks to be mainly across
our far western CWA. While there are differences in location for
this heavy rain axis, guidance is in good agreement of a swath of
1 to 1.5 inches through 00z Sat. Most of this will fall after 18z.

As far as a flood threat goes, WPC has the area in a marginal risk
for excessive rain. Definitely have lots of moisture with PWATs
around 1.5 inches. This is near if not record PWATs for the area
according to the SPC sounding climatology. Obviously, this is
reflected in the rainfall amounts as well. As far as a flood threat
goes, 'any' flash flooding would be due to rates and in an urban
area. HREF 3hr max is around two inches across CID tomorrow.
FFG has them seeing FF if they get 3 inches in 3 hours. So, it does
not look like this is a potential. That said any differences in the
thermodynamic profile may lead to stronger thunderstorm updrafts and
we could see ponding of water and even isolated flash flooding, if
everything comes together. Believe this threat is very low at the
current time.

More interestingly is the chance for HSLC tornadoes tomorrow. With 0-
3km shear 40-50kts and perpendicular to forecast Z from CAMs, there
will be a potential for mesovortexs with any decent updraft.
Looking at thermodynamics, this is a limiting factor to a greater
threat. Models do have sufficient 0-3km CAPE (50-100 J/kg) for HSLC
tors. The GFS and HREF are trending towards a little more SBCAPE.
This threat will likely be tied to just the warm side of the cold
front, where guidance has pooling Tds in the low 60s.
Model soundings in the warm sector have a very weak cap, but more
impressively a good 0-1km shear profile. An updraft rooted shallowly
would have a lot of shear to work with. This may increase the
dynamic pressure perturbation and subsequent updrafts. Wouldn't
be surprised to see this threat tied to the AM resurgence of the
LLJ. Do not see a high enough threat to add to the HWO at this
time. Mainly something that we need to keep an eye on internally
through the day tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Friday Night....Mean mass field guidance trends still show large
plains upper trof complex axis point to eject out acrs western into
central IA as closed neg tilted low by 12z Sat.  Leeside 130 to 140
KT upper jet streak still on track to surge up the southeastern
plains to northwestern GRT LKs along and west of the CWA thru 06z
Sat, then adjusting eastward acrs and east of the area thru Sat
morning. This system adding deep lift on it's right entrance to
exit region to the east in a seasonably robust warm moist conveyor
streaming up off the western Gulf(along with some monsoonal
tentacles from the southwest/Mexico still supports the now well
advertised heavy rain event Friday night into Sat morning. Much of
the moisture shuttle north on 45 to 50+ KT SSW low level jet(LLJ).
How far west or east the main convergent focus along a slow moving
boundary to where the heaviest rainfall axis will lay out is still
somewhat at question, with the latest trends in blends and 12z
deterministics shifting the highest QPF(2.5 to 3+ inches)swath a bit
westward from along an axis from northwest of Dubuque, to Cedar
Rapids, and to near Oskaloosa IA. But the new resolved blend looks
to be a county east of that with highest swath, and 2 inch plus line
lays out along and west of a line from Galena in NW IL, to Muscatine
IA, and to Fairfield IA. These are storm totals thru 18z Saturday.
More on precip in paragraph below.

Very unseasonable/90th+ percentile PWAT feed of 1.2 to 1.4 inches on
average thru Sat morning, with near record bouts of 1.4 to 1.6
inches Friday night streaming up along a slow moving front and being
squeezed out by bulk shear values of 40-70 KTs. This forcing may
eventually produce swaths of 1 to over 2 inches of additional
rainfall after 00z Sat into Sat morning. These linear focus axis's
may be rather narrow from late Friday to Sat afternoon, with
localized storm total 4+ inches possible by mid Sat morning. The
latest thinking prime axis/frontogenesis focus places the heaviest
rainfall swath potential along and west of a line from the DBQ to
CID, to Sigourney line(already mentioned in above paragraph) along
the slow moving frontogenesis axis. This in contrast to some areas
in west central IL to near Princeton IL which may get well less than
an inch.

Even with these high amounts, dry/drought antecedent conditions,
rainfall rates and the precip occurring over 24-30 hours all suggest
a limited flash flood threat. Would expect more of the ponding and
urban/small stream water effects especially near leaf clogged
drains. Several tributary rivers will probably experience some good
rises, but with so many at very low water levels it should all be
within bank.

Looking at the strong to severe storm potential Friday night, sfc
layer(mixing down to) instability continues to be marginal after
dark. This do to saturated LLVLS and multiple shallow inversions
that will have to be overcome for any sfc based wind momentum
transfer or mixing. But both LLVL and deeper layer/bulk shear
profiles still fcst to be strong with 50-70 KT south to
southwesterly low to mid level flow. Thus still some potential for
an isolated precip loaded/pressure perturbation mix down high wind
gust overnight up to 50 KTs. Impossible to say when and where
though, and may be hard to tell difference from this mix down gust to
an enhanced gradient wind gust especially late Friday night.

Saturday...as the upper trof/low axis continues to eject out acrs or
just west of the local CWA Saturday somewhat negatively tilted,
Associated deepening sfc low on latest blends still dipping down
below 990 MB acrs northeastern IA and into central WI by mid Sat
morning. Although a bit more progressive on the later model runs, a
quick cyclone deepening like this will drive strong southwesterly
sfc winds from early Sat morning into at least mid afternoon. Even
with limited mixing depth in the morning, such strong winds in the
rather shallow layer/45-50 KTs at top of mix potential could produce
gusts up to 50 MPH...or higher with some gravity wave enhancement.
Thus all this along with some trop fold aid to LLVL potential
vorticity could lead to a period of higher end wind advisory
criteria gusts Saturday. When to make the call for a headline is the
question, with still some time to assess. Several deterministic
model runs still dynamically cool portions of the systems def zone
precip flank into wet snow not all that far off to the northwest of
the DVN CWA Sat morning into early afternoon, with the 12z GFS even
clipping the far northwest corner of the CWA with a mix or total
switch over. But lower level temps such as 925 MB and boundary layer
still appear too warm for much more than a limited mix in these
northwest areas and will keep all rain for now.

Dry slotting and deepening southwest wake flow has trended quicker
will likely end the precip from southwest-to-northeast by midday Sat
except maybe for the far northwest still getting clipped by the def
zone. Saturday temps trends continue to look non-diurnal for much of
the east with 12 hr highs in the 50s to near 60 around 12z in the
morning, decreasing in wrap around cool advection from the southwest
during the afternoon into widespread 40s.

Sunday into next week... Zonal to southwesterly steering flow
recharges acrs the mid CONUS in the wake of the Saturday system,
making for an initially dry and above normal temp regime at least
into the middle part of next week.  Precip chances will look to
increase Tue into Wed with return flow moisture advection and
convergence on any associated warm front as it retreats, but better
chances may be setting up west and north. A stronger cold front
still looks possible late next week, but low confidence for timing
and extent of precip chances with it at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

A cold front, currently situated over central Iowa, will gradually
make its way eastward today. Ahead of the front, strong winds
aloft will lead to a period of low-level wind shear early this
morning. Increasing moisture along the front will support
lowering ceilings to MVFR later on this morning, with increasing
chances of rain showers. As we go into the afternoon hours today,
ceilings are expected to lower further to IFR, especially for the
DBQ and CID TAF terminals. Some thunderstorms will be possible in
these areas this afternoon, with IFR visibility reductions
expected due to heavy rain and fog.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

Record Warm Lows for Friday Nov 4th

Dubuque........54 in 1898
Moline.........58 in 1975

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Schultz
CLIMATE...Gibbs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
342 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-042045-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
342 PM CDT Thu Nov 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Southwest winds gusting up to 50 mph are possible late Friday
night into Saturday morning, primarily in Illinois.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday into Saturday. At this
time the primary risk is lightning. Heavy rain is possible which
could result in ponding of water on roads and low lying areas,
mainly if storm drains are clogged with leaves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.