Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
543 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

...AVIATION AND CLIMATE UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 409 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Low pressure organizing on the lee side of the CO Rockies had a
warm front extending to central MO. Strong warm/moist air
advection was occurring in the central Plains into the Midwest.
Temperatures were in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s south of the
front. Thunderstorms were increasing across the western half of
IA and into eastern NE and far nw MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Headlines: Have issued a flash flood watch for roughly along and
north of I-80 for today. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches are
possible with an isolated 4 inch not out of the question if
training thunderstorms occur.

Key messages:

1) Numerous showers and thunderstorms today with the potential
   for flash flooding.

2) Warm tonight but no rain expected.

Today: Warm front will gradually push northward across the dvn cwa
as deepening low pressure pulls out into the central Plains.
Strong warm/moist air advection seen on forecast soundings should
allow for numerous showers and thundestorms across much of the cwa
today. CAM's indicate widespread rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches
roughly from the I-80 corridor to Hwy 20. An isolated 4 inch
amount is possible in a narrow band if thunderstorms manage to
train over the same area. However, hard to pinpoint exactly where
this may occur. There are three reasons why we issued a flash
flood watch 1) WPC has a slight risk for flash flooding 2) the
ground is saturated in some areas due to recent rains and 3) PWAT's
are forecast to be about 1.35 inches which is at record values
for April 22. This suggests efficient/high rainfall rates in
thunderstorms. As the warm front lifts northward the chances for
rain drops off dramatically south of the front as the forcing
ends. Highs will range from the lower to mid 60s along Hwy 20 to
near 80 south of Hwy 34. There is a marginal risk for severe hail
also today.

Tonight: The warm front should be north of the dvn cwa by 00z as
the cyclone continues to deepen in SD. This leaves our area in the
warm but dry sector with a quite mild night in store with a breezy
south wind. Lows will be in the lower 60s in many locations.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Key messages:

1) Very warm on Saturday with a chance of thunderstorms late in the
   day.

2) Weakening line of thunderstorms Saturday night.

3) Colder next week with the potential for frost/freeze.

Saturday: Intense cyclone (984 mb) tracks into eastern ND with the
dvn cwa in the warm/capped atmosphere. Very strong southerly winds
are expected with gusts to at least 40 mph. If winds look to be
higher than a wind advisory may be needed for later shifts to
consider. Highs will soar into the lower 80s which would be the
warmest day so far this year! This is near record highs, see
climate section below. There is also the enhanced risk for wind-
driven grass fires, so outdoor burning is discouraged.

Saturday night: A cold front will be advancing across the cwa with
a line of thunderstorms ahead of the front. However, the timing is
crucial as currently the storms are expected to arrive by early
evening and then push eastward overnight. The models suggest a
weakening trend the farther east you go in the cwa as the storms
encounter a more stable atmosphere. As of now, SPC has a marginal
risk for hail and damaging winds west of the MS River, with a
slight risk in our far western cwa.

Sunday: The cold front will push across the area ending any
lingering showers or storms. Highs should range from around 60 far
nw to around 70 far se.

Monday through Wednesday: Colder but dry as a northwest flow
surface/aloft is established with a deep trough in the Great Lakes
region. H8 temps are progged to dip below freezing which translates
to lows dropping into the 20s to lower 30s. This sets up the
potential for a freeze/frost situation for at least a couple of
nights and headlines may be needed in our future. Highs during
this time frame will be well below normal, only in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. By Wednesday, we start a warming trend.

Late next week: Heights rise as yet another deep trough moves into
the Rockies. Temperatures will be warming into the 60s with
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today with MVFR cigs
expected. Local IFR conds in heavier rain and thunderstorms.
Southeast winds will gust to around 25 knots. A warm front
responsible for the storms will gradually lift to the north of the
area by this evening, ending the pcpn. VFR conds will then return
this evening and overnight.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 919 PM CDT Thu Apr 21 2022

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop across
the area later tonight and continue into early Friday afternoon.
The heaviest rains are expected to fall prior to sunrise Friday
and into the late morning hours. There is the potential for 1 to 3
inches of rain falling across the area. Currently the heaviest
precipitation is expected along and north of Interstate 80.
However, model differences are leading to lower confidence in the
heavy rain placement as well as the amount of rainfall expected
to fall. The placement of this precipitation will lead to rises on
area rivers. Based on the current forecast and the limited
confidence, river flood watches have been issued for the English
River at Kalona, the Wapsipinicon River at De Witt and the North
Skunk River at Sigourney. Within bank rises are currently expected
on other area rivers with the potential for rises on the
Mississippi River early next week south of Clinton.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

Record Highs for April 23...

Moline.........86 in 1960
Cedar Rapids...90 in 1925
Dubuque........85 in 1925
Burlington.....84 in 1960

Week 2 next week:

Dramatic change to much colder weather early next week with a deep
trough in the Great Lakes region sending cold air into the area.
With lows dropping into the 20s to lower 30s Monday night and
Tuesday night there is the potential for a frost or freeze. As
confidence increases then frost/freeze headlines may be issued.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flood Watch through this evening for Benton-Buchanan-Cedar-
     Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Iowa-Jackson-Johnson-Jones-Linn-
     Muscatine-Scott.

IL...Flood Watch through this evening for Carroll-Jo Daviess-Rock
     Island-Whiteside.

MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase
HYDROLOGY...Cousins
CLIMATE...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
509 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-230930-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
509 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A flash flood watch is in effect today for locations along and
north of the Interstate 80 corridor in Iowa and Illinois. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall with the
potential for flash flooding.

There is also a marginal risk for isolated severe hail today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Saturday: South winds will gust up to 45 mph so high profile
vehicles should use extra caution. With temperatures soaring into
the lower 80s there is the enhanced risk for wind driven grass fires.

Saturday night: A line of thunderstorms, some possibly severe,
will arrive during the evening. There is a slight risk for severe
storms in portions of eastern Iowa. The main risk will be damaging
winds. The storms are expected to weaken farther east overnight.

Monday through Wednesday: Colder temperatures are expected with
the potential for a frost or freeze as nighttime temperatures drop
into the 20s to lower 30s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any hail that you may receive today as well as
rainfall amounts of over 1 inch.

Haase

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
627 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

IAZ040-041-051-052-063-221230-
Linn IA-Buchanan IA-Delaware IA-Iowa IA-Benton IA-
627 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Buchanan, Benton,
western Delaware, northwestern Linn and north central Iowa Counties
through 730 AM CDT...

At 627 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Jesup to near La Porte
City to near Traer to near Meskwaki Casino. Movement was east at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Jesup around 635 AM CDT.
  Fairbank around 640 AM CDT.
  Dysart around 645 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Independence,
Brandon, Hazleton, Garrison, Stanley, Belle Plaine, Rowley, Mount
Auburn, Vinton, Keystone, Aurora and Luzerne.

This includes Interstate 380 between mile markers 32 and 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9160 4231 9162 4186 9185 4186 9230
      4230 9230 4230 9206 4264 9208
TIME...MOT...LOC 1127Z 259DEG 30KT 4255 9217 4233 9229 4215 9250 4195
9269

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

McClure

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
930 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNE CEDAR RAPIDS      42.01N 91.66W
04/22/2022  M1.11 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SINCE 1 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
938 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0938 AM     HEAVY RAIN       WYOMING                 42.06N 91.00W
04/22/2022  M1.00 INCH       JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINFALL SO FAR.

&&

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

IAZ051-052-063-064-076-077-221645-
Linn IA-Keokuk IA-Iowa IA-Benton IA-Washington IA-Johnson IA-
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Keokuk, northwestern
Johnson, southern Benton, northwestern Washington, southwestern Linn
and Iowa Counties through 1145 AM CDT...

At 1046 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Keystone to 6 miles southwest of What
Cheer. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Heavy rain with rates up to 1 to 2 inches per hour. Winds
         in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor flooding is possible. Gusty winds could knock down
         tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Van Horne and Keystone around 1050 AM CDT.
  Newhall around 1100 AM CDT.
  Sigourney and Keswick around 1105 AM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Atkins,
Shellsburg, Palo, South English, Cedar Rapids, Harper, Toddville,
Hiawatha, Robins, Kinross and Marion.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 205 and 235.
 Interstate 380 between mile markers 9 and 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9241 4151 9230 4211 9230 4211 9154
      4127 9187 4129 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 1546Z 270DEG 34KT 4206 9216 4136 9246

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Uttech

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1121 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

ILZ009-016-017-221645-
Whiteside IL-Bureau IL-Henry IL-
1121 AM CDT Fri Apr 22 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Whiteside, northeastern Henry and northwestern Bureau Counties
through 1145 AM CDT...

At 1120 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tampico, or 8 miles southwest of Rock Falls, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Emerson around 1125 AM CDT.
  Rock Falls and Deer Grove around 1130 AM CDT.
  Sterling around 1140 AM CDT.

This includes Interstate 88 between mile markers 23 and 44.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4156 8995 4173 9004 4185 8963 4161 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 256DEG 31KT 4169 8981

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Uttech