Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
332 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

The latest sfc analysis was indicating the main warm front had
retreated north to close to the IA/MN border dropping down to north
central IL. Overnight elevated convection ongoing in it's vicinity,
and should exit the CWA and diurnally wane through mid morning.
Until then some robust localized rainfall and near severe hail/winds
possible. Then another potentially significant severe weather event
possible along and north of the CWA later this afternoon and
tonight, with secondary strong convection possible further south
into the local area as a cold front pushes in from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Today...Again will walk out some lingering storms out of the east
and northeast thru 8-9 am before they diurnally wane. Some temporary
training or development will produce localized rainfall swaths of 1-
2 inches, but we should be able to handle that in much of the area
besides some ponding of water and will hold off any flood watch, but
can't rule out the eventual need for an isolated flash flood warning
through dawn. Then any convective debris should erode for full on
warm sector effect ahead of approaching short wave from the Pacific
northwest and the above mentioned associated cold front. Fcst
soundings and thermal profiles suggest breezy south winds pumping up
temps into the low to mid 90s, with sfc DPTs in the lower to mid
70s.

Some outside chance for a deeper mix boosting some temps into
the upper 90s and pooled mid to upper 70 DPTs, but that still looks
to be on the extreme/high deviation end of things. With mid 90s and
lower to mid 70 DPTs, solid to higher end Heat Advisory still on
track and will let the headline ride of course, with heat index
readings in the 100-107 degree range. Some localized 110's possible
as well, and if that get's more widespread, an eventually need for
an excessive heat warning can not be ruled out.  After the morning
convection subsides, the rest of the day thru 00z may be mainly dry
and EML capped, but some chance of newly generated storms bleeding
down into the far northwestern CWA out of southern MN convective
hotbed. Will keep at least lower CHC POPs in those locations for
late afternoon storm development, which could be strong/severe if it
occurs.

Tonight...A lot coming together ahead of a vigorous digging short
wave trof acrs the northern plains into the northwestern GRT LKS to
fuel strong to severe convection acrs the upper Midwest and western/
southwestern GRT LKS. Robust THTA-E advection and 40-50+ KT bulk
shear looks to eventually form an severe line/bow of storms acrs
southeastern MN, northern IA and into central/southern WI, with some
chance of this severe line tailing down and clipping the northern
portions of the local CWA Sat evening. Projected H85 MB thermal MCS
track temps have slipped a bit further south, but still keep the
brunt of the linear MCS activity just to the north of the DVN CWA or
scraping the northern fringe. The thought of overpowering cold pool
mechanics to allow for a further southeast propagation to occur then
what a lot of models want to give it credit for, still has to be
kept in mind and the Enhanced outlook along the northern doorstep of
the CWA looks to be warranted.

Even if the main line doesn't make it, secondary more sctrd storms
will still be possible in the local area especially late night after
midnight ahead of the main cold front, with still high instability
for that time of day 3000+ MU CAPES and 30-50 kT effective bulk
shear supporting a severe threat and all threat parameters possible.
An evolving situation to watch for sure, with higher end damaging
winds possible in or near the local CWA taking into account the
kinematic/thermodynamic combo if a portion of the evening linear MCS
can make it into the northern CWA. PWAT feed of 1.7 to 2.0 inches
would also support high rainfall rates of 1-2+ inches an hour and
locally heavy rain. Hopefully the storms will be progressive, but
any repeated tracking/development in the same areas could spell
localized flooding, especially in areas that get locally heavy rain
this early Sat morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Sunday...A cooler frontal passage day, and will probably still have
to walk out frontally forced showers and storms thru the
southeastern 2/3's of the CWA thru at least late morning with some
storms still possibly on the strong side. But latest model trends
suggest better severe chances shifting south and southeast of the
local FCST area. Frontal convergent focal zone looks to shift mainly
south of the CWA for Sunday night precip chances.

Monday and Tuesday...Cooler in the 80s regime looks in store with
the main boundary undulating off to the south, maybe some
overrunning elevated showers and embedded storms in the far south at
times Monday night, with locally heavy rainfall possible. Current
suite of medium range models continue to dig the next short wave and
pre-warm front into the area Tue night for the  more organized
precip/MCS threat into early Wed morning.

Wednesday thru Friday...Midweek FROPA Wednesday with associated
precip chances especially in the morning. Ensemble upper jet pattern
shows longer wave trof carving out acrs the upper MS RVR Valley with
cooling influx down into the region. This may set up below normal
temps for the end of the week, with smaller precip chances in the
south for Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Will be keeping a close eye on potential for storm development
around the KCID/KDBQ vicinities for the next several hours.
Satellite imagery at this hour depicts a frontal boundary with
plentiful CU around the Hwy 20 and 30 corridors, which is likely
to spawn showers and storms as it begins to interact with the
30-40 kt LLJ. Maintained the TEMPO group from the previous TAF to
address potential for MVFR conditions if storms impact the
terminals.

Outside of this, VFR conditions will prevail for the period with
south to southwest winds around 10-15 knots. Additional showers
and storms will be possible late in the period once again at
KCID/KDBQ, and have introduced a PROB30 group for MVFR conditions
for this TAF at those terminals.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Benton-Buchanan-Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Des Moines-Dubuque-
     Henry IA-Iowa-Jackson-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Keokuk-Lee-
     Linn-Louisa-Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     Bureau-Carroll-Hancock-Henderson-Henry IL-Jo Daviess-
     McDonough-Mercer-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Warren-
     Whiteside.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for Clark-
     Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...Speck

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