Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
315 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

18z data has a pre-frontal trof running from southern Wisconsin into
central Missouri. The main cold front ran from northwest Wisconsin
back toward the KMKC area. Dew points either side of the pre-frontal
trof were in the 60s with 40s and 50s behind the cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Special mid-day sounding showed a small cap still in place. Diurnal
convection is firing along the agitated cumulus line east of the
Mississippi. Satellite is showing some diurnal cumulus trying to
develop along the Mississippi but it remains very weak.

Based on satellite and radar trends convection should continue to
quickly develop east of the Mississippi late this afternoon and
push east this evening as the cold front sweeps through the area.

Although it cannot be fully ruled out, an isolated severe storm
could occur. If a severe storm does occur the primary risk would
be damaging winds with a secondary risk of large hail.

Late tonight and into Saturday dry and much less humid conditions
will be seen across the area. Temperatures Saturday will be above
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Key Messages:

1.  Pops and cooler temps expected Sunday.
2.  Cooler temps into next week with ripples in the flow leading to
pop chances.
3.  Temperatures will rebound through the week.

Discussion:

A cold front will move through the area on Sunday as a wave rotating
around an upper level low in eastern Canada. This will lead to some
showers and even storms on Sunday. Into Monday, NW flow will help to
usher in cooler temps and quiet weather to start next week. This
flow becomes zonal and brings chances for weak waves and pops to the
area.  Current blend has low pops for a few days, it appears that
only one event with a 6 to 12 hour duration of pops looks possible.
Ridging returns to the area and warms temps into the upper 70s to
80s late next week.

Sunday, the cold front pushes through the area during the day. Some
post frontal pops are possible Sunday with the better pops south of
the area.  Cloudy skies with highs in the 70s and some pops look
possibly. While some thunder is possible, thinking that rain showers
will most likely occur.  This boundary stalls across the area for
Sunday into Monday before a stronger push of cold air moves into the
area. Tuesday, temps in the upper 60s to 70s are expected with
chances of pops later in the evening and overnight associated with a
wave and warm front across the northern CWA.  With progressive wave
and the boundary pushing south Wednesday, expect just showers and
some storms with no real chance for severe or flash flooding.

With the change in the pattern late week, a warm front is expected
to move north bringing with it warmer temperatures and chances for
warm frontal convection.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Cold front moving into eastern Iowa will be the focus for rapid
TSRA development 21z/13 to 00z/14. Isolated storms to rapidly grow
upscale into a line along the Mississippi river and move east
across northern Illinois. Outside of storms VFR conditions will be
seen with MVFR/IFR conditions in storms. After 06z/14 VFR
conditions are expected but some MVFR conditions are possible
along and east of the Mississippi due to fog forming over wet
ground.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT Fri May 13 2022

Record Highs for May 13...

Moline.........91 in 1915   already broken
Cedar Rapids...91 in 1900
Dubuque........90 in 1940
Burlington.....94 in 1915

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
311 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-140815-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
311 AM CDT Fri May 13 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Severe thunderstorms are possible across far eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois, and far northeast Missouri late this afternoon and
evening. The most likely timing for storms is between 3 PM and 9 PM.
The primary threats are damaging winds and large hail. There is also
a marginal risk for flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal or level 1 risk of
severe storms across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and far
northeast Missouri late Saturday morning and into the afternoon.
The main threats will be damaging winds.

There is also a chance of thunderstorms Saturday night into
Sunday. The primary threat is lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

PS/DC

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