Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
444 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

Strong southwesterly flow aloft has set up over the area, ahead of
the incoming system. With this, we have started to see moisture
increase throughout the area. Thus, we are looking at quite a muggy
start to the day, with much of the area showing dewpoints in the low
to mid 70s! Temperatures are not much higher than that. Thus, this
is what we consider "air that you can wear." We have stayed dry
through the night, but with the approaching cold front and the
current state of the atmosphere, we will end up seeing precipitation
by mid morning. While heat headlines are not expected today, very
warm and humid weather will still result. In the extended, above
normal temperatures still remain, with a more active pattern ahead
of us.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

The main story for the short term will be the weak surface low that
drags a cold front through the area today. Precipitation timing has
been pushed back a little bit since last forecast, with the current
thinking being the cold front pushing into the area by mid morning.
Showers and embedded storms are expected to rapidly develop in
central IA after sunrise and move into our area. At this time, we
are not expecting much on the severe side of things, but a stray
strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. Best chance to see any
strong to severe storms will be later in the day, when we get some
heating ahead of the front. Generally, the areas to watch will be
east of the Mississippi River in the afternoon. The Storm Prediction
Center has highlighted these areas in a Marginal Risk for Severe
Weather, with a Slight Risk for the far southeast. Primary hazards
are looking to be damaging winds and isolated large hail.

With the threat of showers and storms through the day, that means
that we will be mostly socked in with clouds. Thus, we have gone
ahead and lowered temperatures even more. As I mentioned yesterday,
this "cooler trend" continues. While we will still be in the upper
80s and very humid, heat index values are progged to be in the 90s.
Thus, heat headlines are no longer expected today.

Tonight, post frontal airmass kicks in as high pressure slowly makes
its way in from the north. Humidity isn't expected to drop much
until around midnight local time. Once the dew points go down, we
will start to see the temperatures drop as well. Temperatures
overnight will range from the low 60s in the northwest to near 70
in the southeast. Most of the area will remain dry, with the best
chance to see any precipitation in our far southeast. Chances are
higher that the southeast will stay dry overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

Key Messages:

1.  Heat returns in the long term as ridging builds into the area.
2.  Next chance for any pops is late in the weekend to start the
week.

Discussion:

Little unchanged in the long term.  Ridging builds into the area,
leading to warmer temps across the area. High temps will climb from
the 80s into the 90s for the weekend as the ridge builds in.
Saturday looks like the hottest days as temps in the low to upper
90s are forecast across the area.  As is typical with heat, do we
get that warm and mix down drier air or do we stay cooler and the
Tds make the heat indices approach Heat Adv levels.  At this time,
it is difficult to tell which wins out.  Regardless, its going to be
hot through the weekend.

Towards the end of the weekend, models still agree on a better wave
passing north of the area and bringing cold front into the area.
Chances for storms return for Sunday into Monday.  Boundary looks to
stall near the area and could lead to chances for pops for a day or
so.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

VFR conditions will last through mid morning. Around 15Z and
beyond, we can see MVFR conditions from the showers and storms
that move through. Heavy rain and thunderstorms will likely drop
cigs and vis, especially after 18Z. After 00Z Thursday, we will
start to see the showers and storms move out, leaving us in
northwest winds and clearing skies. VFR conditions will last
through the night and into tomorrow.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Gunkel
SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gunkel

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
404 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-040915-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
404 AM CDT Wed Aug 3 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Threat for thunderstorms today, where some may be strong to
severe in the afternoon. Best chances to see strong to severe
storms will be east of the Mississippi River. The Storm
Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for severe weather in
our far southeast, with a Marginal Risk for those along and east
of the Mississippi River. Primary hazards will be damaging winds
and isolated large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Next chance for possible heat headlines will be over the weekend,
with temperatures over 90 and increasing humidity once again.
There is also a chance for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. The
chance for severe weather appears low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

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