Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

18z data has low pressure in west central Minnesota. A cold front
extended south and southwest from the low into western Nebraska. Dew
points were in the 60s from the Great Lakes into the northern
Plains. Dew points in the 70s ran from the lower Ohio Valley and
Deep South into the central Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Through sunset quiet and dry conditions will be seen across the
area. Starting late this evening and continuing overnight the cold
front will move through the area.

Isolated to scattered convection is expected along the front as it
moves through the area. Brief heavy downpours and gusty winds are
possible from the stronger storms.

On Monday quiet and dry conditions are expected during the morning
and first part of the afternoon. Brisk winds are expected to promote
mixing of the atmosphere and cause humidity levels to drop during
the afternoon.

Mid to late afternoon isolated diurnal convection may develop along
the dissipating frontal zone across northern Missouri into central
Illinois. If this scenario occurs, the chances for any rain are
south of a Keosauqua, IA to Macomb, IL line.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

Key Messages:

1) Periodic storm chances through mid-week

2) Confidence is lowering on Wednesday high temperature forecast
and potential for heat headlines

Discussion:

Monday night - Tuesday night

Boundary stalled to our south Monday evening is slated to return
back north as a warm front Monday night through Tuesday, as
low pressure shifts eastward across southern Canada. Fairly
strong elevated warm, moist advection should provide the focus
for at least widely scattered to scattered convection Monday night
and Tuesday morning. Concerns would be given strength of WAA that
1) these PoPs are way too low, especially with any weak waves in
NW flow aloft to further assist and 2) bulk of PoPs could be
relegated to a smaller area in the central/southern cwa with mean
surface to 6km flow from northwest favorable for convection
anchoring on nose of advection, and 3) forecast QPF could be way
too low with this potential for repeated convection that could
bring the risk for localized swaths of heavy rain over 1-3+ inches
with PWATs climbing over 1.5-2 inches. Do feel we'll have an
opportunity Tuesday AM with the waning isentropic lift that
development could expand further and PoPs could also be too low.

Precip Tuesday morning... coverage and how long it lingers and
associated cloud cover will make for a more uncertain high
temperature forecast Tuesday. Seeing a lowering trend in the
guidance, especially north/east cwa and opted for 25-50th
percentile of NBM with highs mainly in the mid 80s to around 90.
Warmest readings in the lower/mid 90s are still anticipated across
our south/west cwa - pending precip trends. These temps with
dew points around 70 or lower 70s would push heat index readings
to around 100 Tuesday PM southwest of an Independence to Monmouth
line.

Wednesday - Wednesday night

Confidence is growing for more widespread convection by afternoon
and evening, as a shortwave and cold front approach and
eventually pass through the area. This faster timing results in a
growing amount of uncertainty with high temperatures Wednesday.
Have noted a gradual lowering trend of NBM for highs, but feel
it may still be too warm given the advancing front, increase in
clouds and precip chances. Collaborated to go more toward blend of
25-50th percentile of NBM for highs, which gives upper 80s and
lower 90s generally for highs. Warmest readings east where some
mid 90s are possible. This coupled with dew points pooling in the
70s would favor areas from Freeport, to Quad Cities to Mount
Pleasant on eastward for best potential of 100-105+ heat index
readings and the possibility for a heat advisory. Again, this
potential will be dependent upon timing of the front, convection
and clouds, which are trending faster thus lowering confidence on
extent/magnitude of temperatures/heat index readings.

In regards to the storms Wednesday PM, believe there is some
potential for strong to possibly a few severe storms with
modest amounts of shear and instability. Of interesting note is
the 12z CSU machine learning forecast would support possibility
of slight risk for severe weather across much of the cwa. In
addition, some localized heavy rainfall is possible with PWATs
reaching 2+ inches.

Thursday - Sunday

Northerly flow post frontal Thursday and Friday should result in
drier and more seasonable conditions, as surface high pressure
traverses from the International border to the Great Lakes.
Beyond that, an amplifying upper ridge over the central CONUS will
look to expand toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions
accompanied by a return of above normal temperatures. The
uncertainty will once again likely focus on how hot and for how
long, as there's indications of being somewhat unsettled with
periodic storm chances residing on the north/east periphery of the
heat dome.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT Sun Jul 31 2022

VFR conds outside of scattered thunderstorms that will move across
portions of the area, ahead of a weak cold front. In the wake of
the front on Monday, skies will be clear along with northwest
winds ocnly gusting near 20 kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Haase

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

IAZ052-064-065-067-010600-
Linn IA-Muscatine IA-Cedar IA-Johnson IA-
1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Cedar,
northern Johnson, northwestern Muscatine and southeastern Linn
Counties through 100 AM CDT...

At 1217 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shueyville, or 11 miles south of Cedar Rapids, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, West Branch, Coralville, North Liberty,
Solon, Ely, Swisher, Shueyville, Lake Macbride State Park, Buchanan,
Newport, Cedar Valley, Sugar Bottom Camp Ground, Sutliff, West
Overlook, Coralville Lake Dam Complex, Springdale, Cou Falls and
Cedar Bluff.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 244 and 259.
 Interstate 380 between mile markers 3 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

&&

LAT...LON 4177 9175 4191 9170 4186 9118 4157 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 283DEG 26KT 4181 9163

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gunkel

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