River Flood Warning 8, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
619 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Thunderstorms with heavy rain continued to expand across portions
of eastern Iowa during the early morning hours. Through 3 am, the
heaviest rainfall amounts around 3 inches had occurred from Belle
Plaine, through Marengo, to North Liberty. Early morning
temperatures ranged from the mid 60s around Freeport, to the mid
70s in southeast Iowa.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Key messages:

1) Morning storms with heavy rain, then afternoon/evening
redevelopment.
2) Hot and humid today, especially south of Interstate 80.
3) Some potential for a few severe storms this afternoon and
evening, along and east of the Mississippi River

Today: Widespread thunderstorms will continue to push east this
morning, with the highest coverage along and north of Interstate
80. Thus far, the main threat is heavy rain and isolated flash
flooding. Max rainfall amounts of 3+ inches have fallen so far in
parts of Benton, Iowa, and Johnson Counties. Will continue to
watch closely for localized flash flood threat, particularly in
urban areas.

This afternoon, heat index values could approach 100 degrees along
and south of Interstate 80, depending on cloud cover. Cannot rule
out reaching advisory criteria in some places, but will defer to
day shift to re-evaluate.

By late afternoon, scattered storms are expected to fire along a
cold front near the Mississippi River. Latest CAMS favor storm
coverage near and east of the river, coincident with the SPC
marginal risk area. Right now, we're looking at a relatively low
risk of large hail and damaging winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

Largely unchanged forecast for the period as a beautiful day Sunday
and Monday are still on track across the area.  After this the flow
turns to a more hot and humid pattern. Wednesday and Thursday
continue to show highs in the 90s ahead of a cold front.  This seems
to be a pattern as of late.  Cold front with milder temps, increase
in heat and humidity, then a front with pop chances. Guidance agrees
on the frontal passage sometime Friday.  This looks to be the next
best chance for pops in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

12Z TAF issuance focused on timing out thunderstorms from west to
east this morning. Otherwise, expect MVFR to low VFR ceilings and
an increasing southerly breeze. Storm redevelopment is most likely
at KMLI/KBRL late this afternoon and have timed a 2 hour VCTS
group at both sites beginning at 22z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...RP Kinney
SHORT TERM...RP Kinney
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...RP Kinney

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
344 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-260845-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
344 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Expect thunderstorms this morning, especially along and north of
Interstate 80. The main threat is heavy rain, leading to isolated
flash flooding in urban areas.

Scattered thunderstorms will likely redevelop late this afternoon
and evening, mainly along/east of the Mississippi River. A few
strong to severe storms are possible, with the main threats of
large hail and isolated downburst winds.

Afternoon heat index values will range from 95 to 100 degrees
south of Interstate 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

There is a low chance of spotter activation between 3 pm and 9 pm,
mainly along and east of the Mississippi River.

RP Kinney

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