Beach Hazards Statement 5, NWS Detroit, MI

531 
WHUS43 KDTX 150147
CFWDTX

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
947 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022

MIZ049-055-063-150300-
/O.EXP.KDTX.BH.S.0005.000000T0000Z-220915T0200Z/
Huron-Sanilac-St. Clair-
947 PM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

Wind speeds are expected to gradually diminish leading into the
morning hours. This will allow elevated wave heights to subside.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1156 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

.AVIATION...

Mainly clear skies overnight will lead to some potential for minor
MVFR fog development by early in the morning. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions with mainly clear skies through Wednesday. There may be a
period of slight diurnal cumulus enhancement Wednesday as a backdoor
cold front drops through the area. Still, scattered coverage seems
to be the most likely outcome. Light west to northwest winds will
veer to the northeast with this fropa Wednesday afternoon into early
evening.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 PM EDT Tue Sep 13 2022

DISCUSSION...

Strong 1000-500mb geopotential height rises now crashing into the
Lake Superior/northern Wisconsin region will kick the closed upper
level low pressure system rapidly northeastward during the next 6-12
hours. The last of cyclonic vorticity maximum has been in place over
Southeast Michigan correlating to cooler temperatures aloft and
associated cumulus development. However, differential height rises
will take over locally within the next 3 hours resulting in a marked
increase in active subsidence between 5.0-16.0 kft agl. The weak,
diffuse midlevel occlusion over northern Lower Michigan will be
drawn southward as the low begins to pull away. Clouds are expected
to be on the increase from north to south through the remainder of
the daylight hours today. There remains a few showers to the north
of the cwa, but this activity will be on a pure downsloping
trajectory as they track into the area. So with the background
forcing for subsidence becoming more favorable not expecting much
precipitation this evening.

The westerly gradient flow is expected to remain high enough
overnight to limit much fog potential. Did not introduce any
mention. Lows tonight are expected to drop into the middle 50s,
buoyed by dewpoints.

A strong area of surface high pressure will build eastward across
Canada on Wednesday. The models continue to advertise a surface
pressure rise response down into Southeast Michigan late Wednesday
afternoon. The signal is there for a decent backdoor front off of
Lake Huron during the evening transition as the PBL depth decreases.
That's what it will take to lower the dewpoints across Southeast
Michigan. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall into the 40s.

Westerly flow with building upper level ridge will support
moderating temperatures through the end of the week and upcoming
weekend. Another extended run of summer weather with highs in the
middle to upper 80s Friday through Tuesday.

MARINE...

Last vestiges of the weekend low are working across the central
Great Lakes this afternoon. Scattered shower activity over northern
Lake Huron wanes going into the evening as low pressure advances
deeper into eastern Canada. A weak cold front drops through the
region early Wednesday though the lack of moisture is expected to
lead to a dry frontal passage. Main impact is a modest uptick in NNW
winds with gusts topping out around 20kts. Winds begin weakening
late Wednesday as high pressure over northern Ontario builds into
the central lakes. Favorable marine conditions then hold into early
Friday before a warm front lifts into the northern Great
Lakes/Straits area.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ421-
     441>443.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......KDK

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
328 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022

MIZ068-075-082-083-140930-
Livingston-Washtenaw-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Howell, Ann Arbor, Adrian, and Monroe
328 AM EDT Wed Sep 14 2022

...Areas of Dense Fog This Morning...

There will be an expansion of fog across portions of the area
during the predawn hours. Fog will be a little more widespread for
locations near the Ohio Border and Lake Erie, including the city
of Monroe. The higher terrain from northern Lenawee County up
trough Chelsea and Howell will also see more widespread dense
fog. Visibilities in these regions will be a quarter mile or less
at times. Expect this fog to persist through at least 8 AM.

SC