Wind Advisory 3, NWS Des Moines, IA

000 
WWUS73 KDMX 190556
NPWDMX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1156 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

IAZ004>007-016-017-025>028-190700-
/O.EXP.KDMX.WI.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-220219T0600Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-
Butler-Bremer-
Including the cities of Estherville, Algona, Forest City, 
Lake Mills, Northwood, Manly, Garner, Britt, Kanawha, Mason City,
Clear Lake, Eagle Grove, Clarion, Belmond, Hampton, Parkersburg, 
Clarksville, Shell Rock, Greene, Aplington, Allison, Dumont, 
and Waverly
1156 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

The strongest wind gusts have ended and brisk winds from the 
northwest will decrease overnight.

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/desmoines

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
618 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 326 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

Key Messages:

-Snow squalls remain possible northeast late afternoon/early evening
with strong winds elsewhere.
-Temperatures become warm again by Sunday with little sensible
weather this weekend.
-Extended threat of precipitation starting on Monday and into next
week with colder temperatures.

Warm sector has shown up this afternoon with temperatures climbing
30 to 40 degrees in many areas across the state today.  Surface
boundary is surging south through Minnesota and SD currently and is
expected to arrive in the north by 4 pm or so.  So far, there have
been a few sprinkles with the returns across northern Iowa in
prefrontal activity. More recently, a narrow band of rain/snow
showers has developed along the surface front in Minnesota, but it
remains very narrow and not overly impressive at this time. Recent
guidance is also not as robust with snow squall parameter with much
of the low level instability skirting to the north and east of the
forecast area into this evening. Winds are still likely to be in
advisory criteria across the north and east after frontal passage
given the strong cold advection and with some potential for a brief
heavy snow shower, will leave the Winter Weather Advisory in place.
However, a change to Wind Advisory may be needed should the
precipitation threat remain limited.

The precipitation threat ends quickly in the south and east by later
this evening with strong subsidence and clearing for much of the
area.  Heading into the weekend, the upper flow begins to flatten as
a western trof develops.  This allows warmer air to spread back into
the state by later Saturday into Sunday as a thermal ridge builds
into the Missouri River Valley.

By Monday, the trof deepens across the western United States with a
polar airmass easing into the northern Midwest. A cold front is
expected to drop into the state Sunday night and remain nearly
stationary along the southern border into Monday as a surface wave
moves along the front.  Isentropic lift intensifies north of the
front through Monday with precipitation developing initially north
of the state.  Eventually, the moist layer near the surface deepens
sufficiently for some light precipitation to increase across central
Iowa by later in the day into Monday night.  Ice introduction
appears somewhat limited and some freezing drizzle/light freezing
rain is possible across portions of central Iowa during this time.
Some lingering precipitation persist into Tuesday, but with light
amounts.  The passing of the shortwave ends all precipitation
chances by Tuesday evening with quiet but cold weather into
Wednesday.  Another threat of snow returns late Thursday into early
Friday as cold air remains entrenched across the state through the
end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening/
Issued at 546 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

Rain/snow showers are ongoing this evening with a cold front
racing southeast across the state. The rain/snow showers will
persist for another couple hours ending north to south with
impacts mainly at ALO but VCSH included at other TAF sites in the
near term. Some MVFR CIGs expected with the light snow but all
sites trend towards VFR later this evening. Strong northwest winds
are expected behind the front and will remain gusty through the early
overnight hours decreasing into tomorrow morning with clearing
skies overnight as well.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for
IAZ004>007-016-017-025>028-037>039-050.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...KCM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
255 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

IAZ004>007-016-017-025>028-037>039-050-192100-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-
Butler-Bremer-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Tama-
255 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the area this afternoon
and evening. Please visit weather.gov/desmoines for further
details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Wind chills of 10 to 15 degrees below zero are possible early
Saturday morning.

Widespread precipitation is expected Monday and Tuesday of next
week. This will be a wintry mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing
rain. Accumulation totals will be better known at a later time.
Travel may be difficult across the region Monday and Tuesday of
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will not be needed.

IAZ015-023-024-033>036-044>049-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-
192100-
Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Sac-Calhoun-Webster-Hamilton-
Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Audubon-Guthrie-
Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-
Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-
Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
255 PM CST Fri Feb 18 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Light snow and rain are possible for portions of the area this
evening. Accumulations will be less than one inch. This could
result in some slick travel spots.

Gusty winds up to 30 MPH are possible through late this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Widespread precipitation is expected Monday and Tuesday of next
week. This will be a wintry mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing
rain. Accumulation totals will be better known at a later time.
Travel may be difficult across the region Monday and Tuesday of
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters will not be needed.