Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Des Moines, IA

131 
WWUS53 KDMX 080006
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
706 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

IAC001-029-080030-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0085.000000T0000Z-220608T0030Z/
Cass IA-Adair IA-
706 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN CASS AND NORTHWESTERN ADAIR COUNTIES...

At 706 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles southeast
of Atlantic, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Massena around 715 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4133 9496 4145 9491 4146 9455 4119 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 298DEG 28KT 4133 9483 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Krull

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
337 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Wednesday Night/
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Key Messages:

- Severe storms possible into this evening over the southwest
  forecast area. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
  threats.
- Precipitation ending Wednesday morning then clearing into the
  afternoon.

Vigorous short wave is currently diving southeast out of Wyoming and
into Nebraska and South Dakota with strong to severe storms
developing in advance of the system in the western portions of those
states. Generally light flow is in place across Iowa with high
pressure ridged just to the north and east of the area. Instability
is building into south central and western Iowa. Expect storms to
begin developing over east central Nebraska and west central Iowa by
late this afternoon then dive southeast across the southwest CWA
with additional weaker activity developing to the north. Profiles
are favorable for supercell development though the light flow in the
0-500m level with the best shear above that layer. This will be
favorable supercells with large hail and some damaging wind gusts.
There is some landspout potential over west central Iowa during the
initial updraft development stage near a surface wind weakness
and where 0-3km CAPE values approach 100 J/kg along with
sufficient surface vorticity. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible with these storms but not expecting any significant hydro
issues beyond ponding. Additional storms may develop over
northern Iowa after midnight. No severe weather is anticipated
with this activity which likely will lingering into Wednesday
morning before the drier air arrives. High pressure arrives
Wednesday night with pleasant temperatures expected for the
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Key messages:

-A threat for heavy rainfall exists Thursday night into Friday.
-Low confidence rain chances over the weekend.
-A period of fair weather sets in at the beginning of next week.

Low-level layers remain saturated through much of the period with
lots of moisture transport from the pacific and some from the Gulf.
A better setup looks to be in place Thursday with a low over the
Rockies and a high over the southeast region that will act to fling
moisture way north into the upper Midwest. PWATs will be nearing
150% of normal with values approaching 1.5". Another shortwave
propagates down the northwest flow in the west. The more
favorable shear and greatest instability and will be located in
Nebraska and Kansas where another MCS may form. There is some
suggestion that a secondary band of rainfall will form off of a
boundary over Iowa. There is some elevated instability and
sufficient moisture supply that will sustain this, but confidence
is lower for low-level supply due to the Gulf transport being
disrupted by the expected MCS.

Additional waves of energy propagate towards the region Saturday
and Sunday night, although uncertainty still remains regarding
location and timing of any possible rainfall. The warm sector of
the ridge will arrive at the beginning of next week and finally
bring some warming, hinted by positive 2m temperature anomalies.
Additional energy will begin to build in the west, signaling a
continued active weather pattern next week. We will continue to
monitor the forecast period for periods of heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon/
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

Scattered cumulus near 4-5 kft early this afternoon. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop by late afternoon and into the evening and
impact most sites. Additional activity may develop late tonight
into early Wed. Cigs will lower through the period and may be IFR
at times late before clearing. Generally light winds though some
gusts > 35 kts with thunderstorm outflow is likely.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...Jimenez/Donavon
AVIATION...Donavon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
332 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

IAZ033-034-044>046-057>060-070>074-081>086-092>097-082045-
Sac-Calhoun-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-
Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-
Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
332 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible later this
afternoon into tonight in southwest Iowa. The main hazards are
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and perhaps locally heavy
rainfall. Greatest severe risk will be during the late afternoon
and evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Additional thunderstorms are possible later on Thursday with the
severe threat looking low at this time. Heavy rainfall is
possible at times and may lead to some localized flooding
concerns.

Another round of storms is possible Saturday
night into Sunday morning with the severe threat better
determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today and tonight.

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-035>039-047>050-061-062-075-082045-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Webster-
Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-
Jasper-Poweshiek-Mahaska-
332 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

A few showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight. Some storms
may produce hail and gusty winds, as well as some locally heavy
rainfall. Showers and storms could last through tomorrow morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Additional thunderstorms are possible later on Thursday with the
severe threat looking low at this time. Heavy rainfall is
possible at times and may lead to some localized flooding
concerns.

Another round of storms is possible Saturday
night into Sunday morning with the severe threat better
determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

IAZ070-080000-
Cass IA-
623 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Cass County
through 700 PM CDT...

At 623 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Walnut, or 14 miles west of Atlantic, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Atlantic around 640 PM CDT.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 50 and 65.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 9515 4150 9484 4119 9504 4127 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 289DEG 39KT 4147 9528

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Krull

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
650 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

IAZ070-080015-
Cass IA-
650 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Cass
County through 715 PM CDT...

At 649 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Atlantic, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Cass
County, including the following locations... Wiota, Lake Anita State
Park, Anita Municipal Airport and Anita.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 61 and 73.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 9494 4150 9470 4125 9470 4136 9498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2349Z 275DEG 50KT 4139 9491

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Krull

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
654 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     HAIL             1 ENE ATLANTIC          41.40N 95.00W
06/07/2022  E0.50 INCH       CASS               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO STRONG WIND AND HEAVY RAIN.

&&