Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
337 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

Key Messages:

-Strong winds and scattered severe storms late afternoon into the
 evening hours.
-Quiet and cooler into Sunday and early next week.
-Increasing threat of precipitation by late in the work week.

Impressive non-severe high wind event ongoing over western Iowa this
afternoon with numerous gusts of 50kts+ and sustained winds of 40
mph or more. Have had several incidents of higher profile vehicles
blown over on Interstate 80 in the west and the threat will persist
a few more hours as deep mixing of high velocities continues.  The
HWW was expanded to include another row of counties in the northwest
with a peak wind of 65 mph at EST in the past hour.  CAMS have
convective initiation with the next hour or so as cap continues to
weaken. Forward motion should be remains quick at 50kts+ given the
strong wind fields aloft with damaging winds the primary threat.
There has been some recent trends in the CAMS for a slightly higher
threat of tornadoes as a few discrete cells form and persist for a
longer period prior to becoming a linear system. Once linear, shear
vectors would be mostly be parallel with an north-south line but any
segment that could become more west-northwest to east southeast
oriented would be much more orthogonal and capable of a QLCS type
tornado. The bulk of the action is likely within the first 3
hours or so with the cold pool eventually dominating and overall
intensity dropping with mostly heavy rain and gusty winds by mid
evening onward. The activity exits to the east later overnight
with a cooler and drier airmass entering the state.

Rather strong subsidence is expected across much of the Iowa on
Sunday with mostly sunny skies central and south along breezy
conditions are expected to persist.  Some clouds do affect the north
during the day along the southern edge of the deformation area but
with little threat of precipitation.  The cool and dry conditions
are expected into early next week with the upper trof making only
slow progress into early Tuesday.  Warm advection does finally take
hold by Tuesday night and persist into Wednesday ahead of a
shortwave crossing the Rockies.  Scattered convection remains
possible into late Wednesday night/Thursday in low level moisture
axis as forcing arrives with this wave across the state. A more
robust system passes into the Midwest by the end of the period with
a better threat of precipitation and storms although plenty of time
for the situation to change between now and then.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

Strong south surface winds are expected this afternoon and evening
before some gradual weakening overnight. Otherwise, mostly VFR
ceilings this afternoon with thunderstorms developing along a
boundary by mid to late afternoon. This convection progresses east
into the evening with clearing behind. Winds veer toward the
southwest by the end of the period with mostly VFR conditions
overnight into Sunday morning.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ005>007-016-017-
024>028-035>039-046>050-058>062-071>075-081>086-092>097.

High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ004-015-023-
033-034-044-045-057-070.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
217 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

IAZ005>007-016-017-024>028-035>039-046>050-058>062-071>075-
081>086-092>097-241930-
Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Humboldt-Wright-
Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-
Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-
Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-
Davis-
217 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A wind advisory is in effect for the area. Please refer to the
National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon
with a slight risk for severe storms across much of the area
through the evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat this
afternoon and evening, but large hail could be possible with
initial storms. The overall risk for tornadoes is low but cannot
be completely ruled out.

Areas that experienced heavy rainfall on Friday will be at a
slight risk for flooding with additional rainfall today due to
the saturated soils.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible later this week but are
currently expected to remain sub-severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed today.

IAZ004-015-023-033-034-044-045-057-070-241930-
Emmet-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Sac-Calhoun-Crawford-Carroll-Audubon-
Cass-
217 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A high wind warning is in effect for the area. Please refer to
the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

Additional thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon
with a slight risk for severe storms across much of the area
through the evening. Damaging winds will be the main threat this
afternoon and evening, but large hail could be possible with
initial storms. The overall risk for tornadoes is low but cannot
be completely ruled out.

Areas that experienced heavy rainfall on Friday will be at a
slight risk for flooding with additional rainfall today due to
the saturated soils.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Scattered thunderstorms are possible later this week but are
currently expected to remain sub-severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
613 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 WSW PERRY             41.83N 94.16W
04/23/2022  M58 MPH          DALLAS             IA   AWOS

            AWOS REPORT OF 58 MPH.

&&

VIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
616 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0604 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW CALLENDER         42.37N 94.32W
04/23/2022                   WEBSTER            IA   PUBLIC

            DEBRIS ON FAIRBANKS AVE.

&&

AJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 SW POLK CITY          41.75N 93.73W
04/23/2022                   POLK               IA   PUBLIC

            OBSERVED NEAR SAYLORVILLE LAKE.

&&

CAH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S AMES                41.99N 93.62W
04/23/2022  M60 MPH          STORY              IA   ASOS

            ASOS REPORT OF 60 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

VIKEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
656 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE FOREST CITY       43.23N 93.62W
04/23/2022  E59 MPH          HANCOCK            IA   AWOS

            AWOS REPORT OF 59 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

VIKEN

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