Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Des Moines, IA

468 
WWUS83 KDMX 061806
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1206 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...Very High Fire Danger today...

.Low relative humidity and gusty winds will create a very high
fire danger today across northwest Iowa. Any fires may spread 
quickly.

IAZ004>006-015-023-033-070000-
/O.CON.KDMX.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Sac-
1206 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR VERY HIGH FIRE CONCERNS...

* Affected area...Portions of northwest Iowa

* WIND...20 to 25 mph with gusts over 35 mph.

* HUMIDITY...Falling below 25 percent at times.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now, or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds, low relative humidity, and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$


For more information from the National Weather Service visit http://weather.gov/desmoines

238 
WWUS83 KDMX 070000
RFWDMX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
600 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

IAZ004>006-015-023-033-070100-
/O.EXP.KDMX.FW.W.0003.000000T0000Z-221107T0000Z/
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Sac-
600 PM CST Sun Nov 6 2022

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IOWA...

The dangerous fire conditions early today have ended, therefore
the Red Flag Warning is allowed to expire.

$$


For more information from the National Weather Service visit http://weather.gov/desmoines

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1156 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

Key Messages:

- Dry and breezy on Sunday. Fire Weather Watch for northwest Iowa.
- Pronounced warming trend early in the coming week, with low rain
  chances returning Tuesday into Wednesday.
- Strong cold front will barrel through around Thursday, bringing
  unpleasantness late in the week.

Earlier rain and clouds have largely cleared the service area,
just clinging to the far northeast at this hour and succeeded by
sunny skies and westerly breezes across central and western
portions of Iowa. Meanwhile a mid-level impulse is quickly
rounding out over the Black Hills region, and will scoot eastward
over Iowa late tonight into early Sunday morning. The forcing
associated with this feature may possibly be sufficient to
generate some light precipitation, however forecast soundings
indicate substantial dry air that would need to be overcome, such
that virga or sprinkles are more likely. A dry forecast has thus
been maintained overnight. On Sunday an area of enhanced low-
level subsidence and mixing will move into about the northwest
half of Iowa, promoting gusty winds in that area and causing RH to
plummet. This will lead to a very high fire danger, as discussed
in detail in the Fire Weather section below, and has prompted the
issuance of a Fire Weather Watch for Sunday afternoon in our
northwestern counties.

Early in the coming week a large mid-level gyre will initially
creep slowly toward the Pacific U.S. coast, eventually coming
ashore over northern California late Tuesday and subsequently
accelerating eastward toward the central U.S. Initially, this
pattern will place the Midwest and Iowa beneath an area of ridging
and southwesterly flow aloft, supporting a pronounced warming
trend from Monday through Wednesday, with highs in the lower 70s
in many areas by Wednesday afternoon. Within this regime, once the
early week surface ridge moves off to the east, increasing warm
air and moisture advection aloft may eventually overcome the low-
level dry air in place, leading to some light showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday, though current
indications are these would be spotty and of little to no impact.

By Wednesday night the aforementioned large western trough will be
swinging more rapidly toward the Midwest, eventually making its
way across the Dakotas, Iowa, and Minnesota around
Thursday/Thursday night. This will push a strong cold front
through Iowa likely during the day on Thursday, with a line of
thunderstorms possibly developing along and ahead of the front and
bringing a return of higher POPs back to the forecast, along with
likely strong winds again behind the boundary, but with the
details of these hazards still quite uncertain at this range and
dependent on storm track, diurnal timing, and other factors. What
can be said with higher confidence is that behind the front
temperatures will plummet with a much colder air mass surging in
and cyclonic northwest flow dominating on Friday into Saturday.
Currently forecast daytime high temperatures fall by 35 to 40
degrees between Wednesday and Friday, and by Saturday morning low
temperatures will likely range in the teens across most or all of
Iowa.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

VFR cigs and visby expected through the period with LLWS expected
to continue overnight for all terminals. Higher values of LLWS
expected at KOTM and KDSM. Gusty winds will shift from
southerly to westerly by 18z. Gusty winds will continue for
northern terminals in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for northwest Iowa on Sunday
afternoon. Relative humidity is forecast to fall below 25 percent
for several hours, but wind speeds and GFDI values are right on
the edge of Red Flag Warning criteria and high temperatures will
only be in the low to mid 50s. Surface fuels should still be dry
as recent rainfall essentially missed that area, with reported
totals of only a few hundredths of an inch or less. Depending on
further updates to wind and RH values for Sunday afternoon, a Red
Flag Warning may become warranted overnight, otherwise the high
danger will be messaged in other products through the day.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch Sunday afternoon for IAZ004>007-015-016-023-
024-033-034.

&&

DISCUSSION...Lee
AVIATION...Donavon/Jimenez
FIRE WEATHER...Lee

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
321 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

IAZ017-025>028-035>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-
062030-
Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-
Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-Boone-Story-Marshall-
Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-
Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-
Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
321 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few showers and storms possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe
threat is low at this time. Additional storm chances possible
later in the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, however rain totals are
always appreciated.

IAZ004>007-015-016-023-024-033-034-062030-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Pocahontas-
Humboldt-Sac-Calhoun-
321 PM CDT Sat Nov 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Fire Weather Watch in effect for Sunday afternoon. Please refer
to the National Weather Service website at weather.gov/desmoines
for further details.

A few showers and storms possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. Severe
threat is low at this time. Additional storm chances possible
later in the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed, however rain totals are
always appreciated.

Dodson