Wind Advisory 2, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
542 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

Summary: The first onset of our clipper train is moving through this
afternoon with gusty winds and blowing snow. Overall snow totals
will likely be between one to two inches across the region. The
second system will mostly pass to our south Saturday afternoon with
some light snow for our southern tier counties. The final system
Sunday night will be the one to keep an eye on, nothing major at
this time but will likely be the heavier producer of snow out of the
three systems. Current thinking is for shovelable snow. Arctic air
returns Monday night with dangerous wind chills spilling across the
region.

High pressure has exited the region leaving a strong pressure
gradient in its wake across the Northland. Gusty winds out of the
south continue to stream across the region out ahead of an
approaching winter system. This afternoons satellite and radar
feature high clouds and snow aloft filtering in from the west. The
morning sounding from INL showcased extremely dry air from the lower
atmosphere up to 500mb. The column will eventually saturate this
afternoon/evening allowing for snow to make it to the surface.

As the surface trough propagates across the Upper Midwest its
associated frontal branches will help provide the necessary lift
for snowfall this afternoon and evening. Up along the Borderlands
and upstream there have been reports of reduced visibility down to a
quarter mile at times. This seems likely due to the blowing snow
component of this system. Snowfall rates are not extremely
concerning with about a half inch per hour expected on the higher
side of guidance. The overall lack of deep moisture and only
moderate lifting mechanisms will continue to hold this snowfall in
check. The system will move out overnight leaving snow totals of
around an inch to two inches across the region.

There is only a brief reprieve between systems with a little
sunshine coming through Saturday as a weak high quickly slides
across the region. Models are in good agreement that another low
pressure will drop southeast out of the Northern Plains and through
southern MN. This will lightly graze our southern tier counties
bringing a slight chance for light snowfall.

The Sunday night system continues to have the strongest signal for
more accumulating snow. Global models are slowly beginning to align,
increasing the confidence in the lows trajectory. Current
projections have this low going through central MN with a slightly
higher moisture content then we have seen with the previous systems.
However, there is higher uncertainty when in comes to the moisture
component due to many run to run inconsistencies. This system does
look to boast a deep dendritic growth zone from the lower levels up
through 600mb. Overall omega forcing is not super impressive but the
deep DGZ should lead to larger dendrites and higher SLRs. It's still
a little soon to narrow down some exact snow totals but it looks to
fall in the category of shovelable snow.

As the last low exits the region we take another polar plunge in
temperatures. An arctic high advances out of the Canadian Prairies
bringing frigid temperatures Monday night. Wind chill advisories
seem likely at this time. We will see prolonged cold air advection
over Lake Superior Monday through Wednesday. This will lead to lake
effect snow showers for portions of the South Shore.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

A band of snow will continue passing through the region this
evening as an upper level wave passes through. MVFR visibilities
are expected with occasional IFR visibilities as well. A secondary
area of light to moderate snow showers will pass through BRD in
the next 3 hours and HYR later this evening, and that is where the
lowest visibilities are most likely. Gusty winds are accompanying
this system, and will continue through the evening. Skies will
eventually clear to VFR after 06Z tonight from west to east with
VFR conditions prevailing through the day on Saturday. Some MVFR
ceilings may move into BRD late in the day as the next clipper
system moves in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

Gales continue to howl across the Lake this afternoon with warnings
in place through the evening. A Heavy Freezing Spray Warning is
also in effect due to the building waves and frigid air
temperatures. Winds are expected to weaken after midnight but will
likely still be hazardous to small vessels. Tomorrow winds will veer
to out of the west and continue to taper off through the
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   0   8 -14   7 /  80   0  10  10
INL  -7   3 -24   3 /  40   0   0   0
BRD  -2   8 -15  11 /  50  20  30  20
HYR   3  11 -14   8 /  80  10  10   0
ASX   6  11  -7  10 /  60  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until midnight CST tonight for
     LSZ140>143-146-150.

     Gale Warning until midnight CST tonight for LSZ140>148-150.

&&

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Britt

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
523 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-221130-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
523 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Light snow is expected this afternoon through tonight. Total
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected. A few localized
amounts to 3 inches are possible. Roads may be slippery this
evening and strong winds will create blowing snow and visibility
as low as one-half mile while snow is falling.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An additional chance of light accumulating snow is expected for
late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Up to 3 inches of
snow is possible by the time of the Monday morning commute.

Bitterly cold temperatures and wind chills are expected once
again for Monday night and Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Snow spotters are requested to report their snowfall measurements
to the National Weather Service.

LSZ140>148-150-221130-
Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
523 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Strong southerly winds are expected tonight. Gales of 40 to 45
knots are expected for a time with occasional storm-force gusts to
50 knots. The strongest winds will be found over the North Shore
waters. Winds will veer northwesterly as gales subside after
midnight and conditions will remain hazardous to small craft.
Additionally the combination of tall waves and strong winds will
lead to heavy freezing spray. Small Craft Advisories, Gale
Warnings, and Heavy Freezing Spray Warnings remain in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Northwest winds will continue Saturday and will be strong through
much of the day. Conditions will be hazardous to small craft,
particularly along the South Shore and the Outer Apostle Islands.
Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.

Huyck

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Duluth MN
651 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

MNZ025-033>036-220300-
North Cass-South Cass-Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-
Including the cities of Walker, Pine River, Brainerd, Hill City,
and Aitkin
651 PM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

...FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURRING THIS EVENING...

Freezing drizzle is occurring in and around the Brainerd Lakes
region this evening. Slick road conditions are expected for the
next 1 to 2 hours with some improvement expected later this
evening as the freezing drizzle mixes with and changes back to
snow.

Freezing drizzle may quickly coat roadways with a thin
layer of ice that may be undetectable. Please use extreme
caution... especially on bridges...overpasses and around curves.
Allow plenty of stopping distance and avoid braking suddenly.

JDS