Tornado Warning 6, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
644 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Summary: Isolated to scattered storms are expected this afternoon
into tonight. A few strong to severe storms will be possible.
Quiet weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, with warmer
weather and more rain and thunderstorm chances returning Friday
and into this weekend.

A very conditional convective setup from this morning with strong
warm air advection, plenty of instability and shear, but also
low-level capping due to the warm air advection has resulted in
scattered thunderstorms developing along the elevated CAPE
gradient and warm front. Being elevated storms, ground truth has
revealed mainly large hail and heavy rain as the primary hazards.
No severe wind gusts have been observed thus far. There is a bit
of potential for a few storms to become surface-based, especially
in the tip of the Arrowhead, where cloud cover has been minimal
today. South and west of the convection that has set up from
Koochiching county southeast into Iron/Price counties, the air is
unstable but capped near the surface, so while the chances for
severe weather through the evening are non-zero, better chances
will be further northeast. In addition, better synoptic forcing
will align as several shortwaves pass through northern Minnesota,
bringing the best threat for large hail and damaging winds through
the evening to that area. Storm chances will continue through this
evening, with a cold front passing through early Wednesday morning
to wash away the thunderstorm threat and bring drier weather
Wednesday through Thursday.

A breezy Thursday is expected as winds become northwesterly behind
the cold front with gusts from around 20 to 30 mph likely for much
of the region. Some lingering low-level stratus and possibly some
light rain showers may be possible, especially along the
International Border, as an upper level trough passes through.
Sunshine is expected further south, especially northwest
Wisconsin, for most of Wednesday. Another quiet weather day is
expected Thursday with temperatures warming up slightly as warm
air advection develops behind a departing surface high.

Going into Friday, much warmer air will move into the region.
Highs in the 80s and 90s are likely, and rain and thunderstorm
chances will increase going into Friday night. There are early
indications that a cold-frontal boundary may become quasi-
stationary for a time Friday night, so there is some possibility
of heavy rain or flooding. Some stronger thunderstorms also can't
be ruled out. Rain chances will continue through the weekend with
several upper level waves passing through. Quieter and seasonable
weather is possible early next week as models suggest surface
high pressure may develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

VFR, but there is a lingering threat for thunderstorms to develop,
but this is very conditional. If they do pop, they will likely
unzip quickly into a potentially dangerous line of storms. So low
confidence at the moment in this occurring that I left it out of
this TAF package. In the meantime, showers will slowly trickle in
from the west as a low pressure approaches. LLWS will be present
for a few hours this evening as a LLJ crosses. Surface winds will
make a large turn from the easterly sided of the compass veering
to northwesterly by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

Winds will switch from northeasterly to southwesterly late tonight
as a cold front passes through. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible through tonight, and some may be strong to severe with
large hail, gusty and erratic winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-
water lightning possible. Breezy northwesterly winds are expected
to develop during the day Wednesday, and there is some potential
for some wind gusts to reach 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon,
especially along the North Shore. At this time, it appears that
stronger gusts will be limited to near the immediate shoreline and
may last for just a few hours mid-day to early afternoon.
Confidence is not high enough to issue any Small Craft Advisories
at this time, but they may be needed. Wave heights will also
increase to around 3 feet, especially in the outer Apostle
Islands, during the afternoon. Wave heights may approach 4 feet,
and these conditions may become hazardous for small craft. Winds
will become light and variable Wednesday night into Thursday as
high pressure moves into the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  76  55  79 /  30  10   0   0
INL  62  71  49  79 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  70  77  55  83 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  69  82  52  80 /  30  20   0   0
ASX  68  82  54  80 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...JDS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
409 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-032115-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
409 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected over parts
of northeast Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and
evening. Large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and gusty winds up
to 70 mph will be possible. Heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms may linger Wednesday morning over parts of northern
Wisconsin.

A few thunderstorms are possible over portions of the Northland
late Friday into Saturday. The threat for severe storms is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotters are encouraged to report hail of any size and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-032115-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
409 PM CDT Tue Aug 2 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and tonight. Some of
the storms could be severe producing large hail and winds in
excess of 50 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

A few thunderstorms may linger Wednesday morning.

Breezy northwest winds will develop Wednesday. Occasional wind
gusts from 20 to 25 knots may create conditions hazardous for
small craft along the North Shore. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed.

JDS

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0316 PM     HAIL             4 SE MCKINLEY           47.47N 92.34W
08/02/2022  M1.25 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WITH PICTURE.

&&

KLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             4 ENE MARKHAM           47.33N 92.15W
08/02/2022  E1.50 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

KLL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             MAKINEN                 47.36N 92.37W
08/02/2022  M1.75 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MN   PUBLIC

&&

KLL

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
427 PM CDT TUE AUG 2 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             14 ESE BIGFORK          47.67N 93.39W
08/02/2022  M1.25 INCH       ITASCA             MN   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA WITH PICTURE.

&&

KLL