Tornado Warning 2, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
358 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Summary: Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and tonight. A few strong tornadoes, widespread damaging
winds of 60 to 80 mph, large hail from quarter to baseball size,
and torrential rainfall which may lead to flash flooding are all
possible. Showers and non-severe storms will linger on Tuesday
before drier and quieter weather arrives by Wednesday.

A complex weather pattern was found over the Upper Midwest this
afternoon. At 20Z, a surface low was centered near Lake of the
Woods with a quasi-stationary front over northern Minnesota,
northern Lake Superior, and eastern Upper Michigan. A second
surface low was centered near Sioux Falls with a warm front which
extended northeast through Willmar to near St. Cloud, MN to Rice
Lake, WI. A quasi-stationary front stretched from near the
northern surface low, down the eastern Dakotas, and into eastern
Nebraska and will move eastward as a cold front tonight. The warm
front was surging northward quickly, as it was analyzed around 100
miles farther south over southern Minnesota at 18Z. The warm
sector south of the warm front was uncapped with MLCAPE of 2000 to
more than 2500 J/kg with effective bulk shear of 40 to 80 knots,
0-3 km bulk shear of 45 to 55 knots, and large curved hodographs.

Supercells with very large hail, damaging wind gusts to 80 mph,
and a few strong tornadoes are possible south of the warm front.
That warm front will continue to surge north into central
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin by early evening. The greatest
tornado threat will be over central and west-central Minnesota
through this evening, which will include areas south of a line
from Cass Lake to Grand Rapids, to Mora, including Brainerd,
Aitkin, Longville, and McGregor. The thunderstorms are expected to
grow upscale this evening and transition to a QLCS wind and
tornado threat. The damaging wind and tornado threat will persist
overnight and include all of northern Minnesota and much of
northwest Wisconsin. Torrential rainfall may lead to flash
flooding, particularly late tonight as the western edge of the
storm complex becomes oriented parallel to the cold front.

Low pressure will gradually push eastward on Tuesday and will
keep showers and thunderstorms in the picture through the day.
Storms are expected to be non-severe. A quieter weather pattern
emerges Wednesday and beyond. While there are showers and storms
possible in the extended, widespread or organized precipitation is
not anticipated until next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Thunderstorm coverage/intensity is the main concern during the
period with secondary concerns fog and strong wind.

Much of the Northland was under VFR conditions early this
afternoon but satellite imagery showed cumulus/stratocumulus
forming with bases low VFR or MVFR. There were also a few showers.
An area of low pressure was centered in northeast Nebraska and it
along with a series of fronts and upper level features will move
north to northeast today into tonight. We expect thunderstorms
will increase in coverage this afternoon and especially late
afternoon into the evening moving from the southwest to northeast.
These thunderstorms will be very strong capable of producing wind
speeds in excess of 70 mph, large hail, tornadoes, and very heavy
rainfall. Winds will veer to south then southwest tonight into
Tuesday morning as the low passes by. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph will
occur with some higher. MVFR ceilings will move back in later
tonight into Tuesday and there will be scattered to numerous
showers.

Another near term concern is fog around Lake Superior. Off lake
winds and a moist airmass has caused fog to form. We expect this
to continue until winds switch tonight. There will be periods
where the visibility improves but overall we expect more fog than
good visibility.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for portions of western
Lake Superior until around 10 PM. Visibility will be variable and
will be less than 1/2 nautical mile at times. As a warm front
lifts north across western Lake Superior, think fog will be pushed
inland and dissipate.

Rain and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Wind gusts of 35 to
60 knots are possible with the strongest storms. Hail larger than
penny-size, and torrential rainfall with visibility less 1/2 mile
are likely as well. Northeast winds will back southeasterly
tonight and may turn southwesterly behind the storms. Sustained
winds of 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots are possible. We
have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the nearshore waters
through 7 AM Wednesday. Some of the high-resolution forecast
models feature gale-force gusts of 35 to 40 knots. These models
have been persistently too strong with the wind gusts now that
lake temperatures are much colder than the air temperatures, so I
am skeptical winds that strong will develop. If they do develop,
some or all of the areas in the Small Craft Advisory will need to
be upgraded to a Gale Warning.

Winds and waves will settle on Wednesday as high pressure builds
into the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  64  45  64 /  90  50  10   0
INL  54  61  41  61 /  90  90  30   0
BRD  56  61  45  65 /  90  60  10   0
HYR  62  73  45  66 /  90  30  10   0
ASX  63  75  46  65 /  80  30  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MNZ010-011-018-019-025-
     026-033>035.

LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT
     Wednesday for LSZ121-140>148-150.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ142>145.

&&

DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Huyck

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
112 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-311815-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
112 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Confidence in very strong thunderstorms continues to increase for
today. We expect severe storms to develop later this afternoon,
most likely after 4 pm, into at least the late evening hours. The
storms should first impact the Brainerd Lakes region. The storms
will be capable of producing tornadoes, damaging winds in excess
of 65 mph, large hail, and heavy rain. The main period of concern
is later this afternoon but prior to that, a few strong to severe
storms will be possible as well with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through Tuesday morning for
portions of northern Minnesota.

Areas of dense fog will be possible into tonight near Lake
Superior.

High water levels continue in the Rainy River Basin over far
northern Minnesota. Flood Warnings remain in effect for these
areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Water levels will remain high across many of the Northland's
rivers, creeks, and streams, especially in the Rainy River Basin
and the Mississippi River Basin. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect
through Tuesday morning for portions of northern Minnesota.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters will be needed this afternoon and tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-311815-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
112 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Areas of fog will will continue over portions of Lake Superior
through tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect from the Twin
Ports and along portions of the North Shore.

Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and overnight, some of
which may be severe producing large hail and damaging winds in
excess of 55 knots.

A period of stronger northeast winds late this afternoon and
evening may cause conditions hazardous for small craft. Strong
south to southwest winds late tonight will cause conditions
hazardous to small craft.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong west to southwest winds Tuesday into Tuesday night will
cause hazardous conditions, especially for small craft.

Melde

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
539 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     HAIL             4 WNW HACKENSACK        46.95N 94.59W
05/30/2022  E1.00 INCH       CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING ABOUT TEN
            PERCENT OF THE GROUND.

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
609 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BREEZY POINT            46.60N 94.22W
05/30/2022                   CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES KNOCKED DOWN WITH NUMEROUS
            BRANCHES DOWNED. PEA SIZE HAIL ALSO
            OBSERVED.

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
614 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW PILLAGER          46.34N 94.53W
05/30/2022                   CASS               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW TREES DOWNED ACROSS MN 210. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
617 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW BREEZY POINT      46.61N 94.24W
05/30/2022                   CROW WING          MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AND POWER OUT.

&&

JJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             1 SE INGUADONA          46.98N 94.12W
05/30/2022  E0.88 INCH       CASS               MN   PUBLIC

&&

MELDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E PEQUOT LAKES        46.60N 94.30W
05/30/2022                   CROW WING          MN   STORM CHASER

            CLUSTER OF TREES DOWN ON A POWERLINE ON
            COUNTY HWY 11.

&&

JJM