Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Duluth, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
407 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 407 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Summary: Warm temps will round out the rest of the workweek with
cooler temps expected this weekend. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will be possible over the next few days. A few storms
may become strong to severe this afternoon and evening as well as
from Friday evening into Saturday. Severe hazards today and
tomorrow include large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Conditions are currently quiet across the CWA this afternoon as high
pressure has exited to the southeast and gusty southwest flow
dominates. This southwest flow has been increasing dewpoints
throughout the day and providing WAA. Convective initiation is
expected later this afternoon as the increase in temp and moisture
is combined with synoptic forcing provided via two shortwaves, one
currently moving into the southwestern CWA and a second in western
North Dakota, which will move through this evening and into tonight.

Thermodynamic parameters are very favorable for the event today.
MUCAPE values from several CAMs and global models are around 3000-
4000 J/kg this afternoon and MLCAPE values are forecasted around
2000-3000 J/kg. However, the main point of concern is the forecasted
dewpoints in the models. The models that show CAPE values exceeding
2000 J/kg have dewpoints reaching to around 70 for areas along and
south of U.S. 2 in Minnesota this afternoon. However, current
observations show lower values in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Therefore, instability will likely be closer to 1500-1800 J/kg by
the time initiation occurs later this afternoon. Regardless, this
instability will be plenty sufficient to develop potentially severe
storms when combined with 0-6km bulk shear of 25-30 knots. Hazards
with severe convection include damaging winds up to 70 MPH and hail
up to 2".

A lull in the pattern is expected late tonight into early tomorrow
morning as weak ridging occurs. However, this break will be brief as
a better organized shortwave trough enters the region tomorrow
afternoon and pivots through Friday night. WAA and moisture
advection will continue to be favorable as southerly flow continues.
Thermodynamics and shear tomorrow afternoon and evening will likely
be similar to today in terms of location and magnitude. The main
difference for tomorrow will be a more favorable synoptic
environment provided via the shortwave. CAMs reflect this more
favorable forcing, since numerous models have an organized line of
convection sweeping across the CWA on Friday afternoon and into
Saturday morning. A few storms along this line may become strong to
severe and will be capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds.

Following the passage of a cold front on Saturday night, conditions
will begin to quiet across the CWA. Post-cyclonic flow will produce
CAA on Sunday, resulting in highs reaching the mid 60s to low 70s.
On and off scattered showers will be possible for areas along and
north of the Iron Range as well as in the Arrowhead on Sunday. A
thunderstorm of two may be possible, but MUCAPE values of around one
hundred J/kg will likely limit thunderstorm development. Next week
will start on a mostly quiet note as high pressure builds over the
mid-Mississippi valley. Periodic rain chances will move in on
Wednesday and continue for the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

VFR conditions are expected early this afternoon as high pressure
continues to depart to the east. Cloud cover will increase later
this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop in northeast
Minnesota. A few of the storms this afternoon and evening may become
strong to severe, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts. The strongest storms will be most likely to occur in the BRD
area. Fog development will be possible late tonight into early
tomorrow morning for several terminals, potentially reducing vsby to
IFR. Conditions return to VFR tomorrow morning, with a few lingering
showers possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to
20 knots. Some areas at the head of the lake may briefly see gusts
to near 25 knots. Otherwise, winds are expected to decrease
through the evening hours to 5 to 10 knots. Waves will be 1 to 2
feet. By tomorrow winds will be out of the northeast and increase
in the afternoon to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to near 20 knots.
Waves will be 1 to 3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  81  58  74 /  30  40  70  80
INL  61  86  64  74 /  20  50  80  60
BRD  66  88  67  79 /  50  50  80  60
HYR  65  87  67  78 /  30  30  60  80
ASX  65  85  61  78 /  30  30  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...KSE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1253 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-241800-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1253 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into tonight. Severe
storms are possible later this afternoon into late evening with
the threats hail to the size of limes and damaging wind gusts to
80 mph. The storms will also be capable of producing heavy
rainfall. The greatest risk for severe storms will be along and
south of US 2 in Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible Friday into the weekend. Some storms
Friday into Friday night may be strong to severe over portions of
the Northland. In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall
will be possible with the storms.

There will be more chances for thunderstorms Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

LSZ121-140>148-150-241800-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
1253 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

A few thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight.
A few strong to severe will be possible with the main threat hail
to the size of quarters and damaging wind to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday into Saturday night.
Some of the storms could be severe, especially Friday into Friday
night.

Gusty west to northwest winds will occur Sunday and will create
hazardous conditions, mainly for small craft. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed.

BJH

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)

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