Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
404 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

...Updated for mesoscale discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Key Messages...

Isolated supercell storms are possible across west central Kansas
this evening with hail 2" or greater. More widespread severe
storms with damaging winds and smaller hail are expected farther
east in central and parts of southwestern Kansas (Hays to Larned
to Pratt) as a line of storms develops this evening and
accelerates southeastward.

Technical discussion...

Early morning storms has lead to a large cloudy area across
southwest Kansas this afternoon. Around the northern periphery,
insolation has lead to destablization and thunderstorm
development. The storms on the western high plains will drift
southeastward and possibly enter Hamilton, Kearny or Scott
counties by 7 pm. Low level winds are weak so the tornado threat
will be low. And the storms may weaken upon entering a cooler air
mass during the evening. If the storms maintain themselves, 2" or
larger hail is possible. Farther east, ongoing severe convection
over north central Kansas will eventually turn southeastward and
accelerate once a cold pool develops. Marginally severe hail and
damaging winds as high as 65-70 mph are the main concerns between
7 pm and 1 am along a line from Hays to Larned to Pratt and
possibly a little farther west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Western Kansas will be on the southern edge of the westerlies
through mid week. Overnight clusters of thunderstorms will
continue to strongly modulate the surface pattern, leading to a
high degree of uncertainty with timing and placement of
additional rounds of storms.

The storm cluster that moved into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma
has pushed cooler air upslope across western Kansas. The stratus
has been hard to erode in many places. Weak upslope flow will
probably result in isolated storms in eastern Colorado this
afternoon; and these could venture into far western Kansas with
very large hail early this evening. The inflow into these storms
will be weak and the storms could weaken with the loss of heating.
The storms in north central KS will likely form into a larger
cluster and move southeast this evening. Bulk shear is favorable
for supercells initially before cold pool generation leads to a
larger clusters of storms with the potential for damaging winds
and smaller hail. Low level shear is lacking for a significant
tornado threat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Another storm cluster will probably develop on the western high
plains (tied to the diurnal cycle) late Monday and then move
across western Kansas overnight. High winds and hail are possible
with these storms. Yet another round of storms is expected Tuesday
night as a shortwave trough moves across the northern plains,
pushing a cold front into western Kansas. Another shortwave trough
will pass across western Kansas Thursday. Surface troughing ahead
of this feature will lead to destabilization and chances for
thunderstorms in the afternoon and into the night. This system
will push a cold front all the way through Kansas, with drier air
arriving for Friday and Saturday and a break in the t-storm
activity. No big temperature swings are expected with daytime
highs given the moist air and convective debris keeping afternoon
temperatures moderate ahead of the front, and sunny skies allowing
for warming despite the cooler and drier air mass by Friday in
the wake of the front. The main effect of the front temperature-
wise will be cooler overnight lows by Saturday due to light winds,
clear skies and drier air, which are favorable for good
radiational cooling.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

Easterly upslope flow from overnight storms has resulted in MVFR
CIGS today. With daytime heating expect VFR by 20-21z.
Thunderstorms are expected to form on the western high plains
early this evening and then move southeast. High winds and small
hail are expected between 01 and 06z at KHYS and possibly farther
south at KDDC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  88  61  84 /  30   0  70  20
GCK  59  88  59  82 /  30  10  70  20
EHA  61  90  60  84 /  10  10  50  20
LBL  61  90  61  84 /  10  10  50  20
HYS  60  83  59  82 /  70  10  70  40
P28  64  88  64  83 /  20   0  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Finch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
346 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-060900-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
346 AM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022 /246 AM MDT Sun Jun 5 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late this evening
into tonight across west central and central Kansas. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
An isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday
Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to be possible each
evening into the overnight hours through Thursday. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Storm spotters may be needed late this afternoon and evening
across portions of far west central and central Kansas.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
521 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

KSZ031-052245-
Ellis KS-
521 PM CDT Sun Jun 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Ellis
County through 545 PM CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Yocemento, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Ellis
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9912 3903 9904 3901 9904 3893 9939
      3903 9949 3913 9940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 238DEG 16KT 3901 9937

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER