Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1010 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

WV imagery indicates a weak upper level shortwave trough transitioning
east through the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a lee side
trough of low pressure is anchored in eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form across eastern
Colorado this afternoon and move into southwest Kansas this
evening. These storms then slide eastward along the KS/OK border
tonight. The atmosphere across southwest Kansas will be unstable
leading to a few of the storms to become severe with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concern. Otherwise expect an
increase in cloudiness overnight. These clouds should dissipate
tomorrow morning with mostly clear skies expected for the
remainder of the day. Winds look to start out form an easterly
direction this afternoon shifting to a southerly direction this
evening. These southerly winds continue through tonight shifting
to the southwest tomorrow with increase in speed. Very dry air is
also expected to be in place across far western Kansas tomorrow.
The combination of strong winds and low RHs will bring critical
fire weather conditions to far western Kansas tomorrow afternoon.
As for temperatures, lows tonight will range form the low 50s
across west central Kansas to low 60s across south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 90s with some places
cracking the 100 degree mark.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 147 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

An upper level low will slide across the US/Canada border as we
start the long term forecast with a long wave trough digging into
the Intermountain west. This will help push a strong cold front
through through western Kansas Thursday night shifting winds to
the north. These northerly winds continue through Saturday night
bringing cooler air to the CWA. Mostly clear skies are expected
Thursday night through Friday with an increase in cloudiness
Friday night. Mostly cloudy skies are expected throughout the day
Saturday. A few showers will be possible Saturday with northern
portions of the CWA having the best chance. Sunday and Monday then
look dry as we will be between systems. The next system looks to
move into the area Monday night into Tuesday as a disturbance
moves out of the Central Rockies and into western Kansas. Most of
the ensemble models hint at least some measurable precipitation
across the entire CWA. But looking at past trends it makes me
think most places will remain dry. As for temperatures, highs will
start out in the 70s Friday with 50s to low 60s on Saturday. We
then slowly warm back up with highs around 70 degrees Sunday and
Monday then in the 70s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 545 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Isolated convection over eastern Colorado will continue spreading
east and begin to expand into larger clusters this evening over
southwest Kansas. The strongest storms may bring relatively lower
ceilings to Liberal and Garden City between about 2 and 4z, but most
of the activity will be rather high based with a severe wind and
golf ball hail risk. Risk at HYS is virtually nil, and not likely
at DDC either, however the trend will be monitored for TAF
updates with respect to timing/threats at all sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

Strong northerly winds gusting around 40 mph are expected
throughout the day Thursday behind a cold front. In addition, dry
air will envelop far western Kansas by the afternoon with relative
humidity dipping into the teens and single digits. The combination
of these two features will increase fire danger across far western
Kansas. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued to account for this.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  58  99  52  75 /  50   0   0   0
GCK  55  99  50  73 /  60   0   0   0
EHA  54 101  50  76 /  80   0   0   0
LBL  55 101  52  77 /  70   0   0   0
HYS  58  98  52  72 /  10   0   0   0
P28  62 100  62  80 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM
MDT/ Thursday for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...Hovorka_42

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
241 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-190745-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
241 AM CDT Wed May 18 2022 /141 AM MDT Wed May 18 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Wednesday.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Another complex of thunderstorms is expected to arrive from
Colorado Wednesday evening, impacting the western zones.
Marginally severe hail and wind gusts are expected. This risk is
expected to remain west of US 283.

Day 1 Hazards
--------------
* Severe thunderstorm wind/hail: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Unseasonably hot temperatures and strong southwest winds are
expected to create critical fire danger Thursday afternoon, along
and west of US 83. A fire weather watch remains in effect. A
strong cold front will follow Thursday night.

Areas of frost are possible Sunday morning.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Thursday
  - Fire weather: Significant risk

* Friday
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  - Excessive cold/frost: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Severe thunderstorm wind/hail: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed west of US 283 tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1003 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NW PIERCEVILLE        37.92N 100.72W
05/18/2022  M60 MPH          FINNEY             KS   ASOS

&&

MR

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1113 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

KSZ064-065-078>080-088-190500-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Clark KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
1113 PM CDT Wed May 18 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of eastern Ford, Kiowa,
southeastern Hodgeman, southwestern Pawnee, Edwards and northeastern
Clark Counties through MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1113 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hanston to near Windhorst to near
Kingsdown. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Centerview, Fellsburg, Garfield, Trousdale, Belpre and Zook.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Kansas. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in
effect until 500 AM CDT for south central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3746 10002 3775 9991 3810 9999 3817 9911
      3782 9901 3774 9901 3743 9912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 267DEG 36KT 3805 9968 3777 9958 3747 9969

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER