Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
209 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

...updated discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

18Z surface analysis shows a stationary front from Gray county northeast
through Pawnee county. An occluded front was from Gray county, where
a sfc low is southeast into Oklahoma. A warm front was analyzed in
Oklahoma with a cold front across the eastern Texas Panhandle into
NW Oklahoma. These boundaries will be critical in determining where
severe weather will be located. Speaking of, storms were already forming
near the triple point and along these boundaries. Regional surface
observations clearly shows that the cold air has won for much of the
FA. Previous high forecasts were too warm and this will have sensible
weather impacts in terms of instability. The entire region of severe
weather has been shifted to the southeast. Have severe thunderstorm
wording the far southeast counties to account for these mesoscale trends
with the colder air winning. So the best chance of severe weather will
be southeast of Dodge City. Here, in looks like a hybrid of a cold
core system (-17C at 500-hPa) and your traditional warm sector convection
across the prairie. If there were to be a supercell, it would be in
the CAPE axis or along its gradient. Mesoanalysis shows this CAPE axis
currently runs from Gray county SE through Comanche county. This axis
is likely to shift east through Barber county later this afternoon
as the synoptic system continues to move east along with its frontal
boundaries. As far a threats go, yes there could be a mesocyclone tornado
or even a landspout tornado or two associated with the storms. It will
depend on how the storm type evolution occurs with the seemly cold
core hybrid synoptic and mesoscale setup. For hail, could see up to
2" hail. Anvil level winds are forecast to weaken to the southeast,
which could cut on hail size through the beneficial competition process.
Damaging winds are the lowest of concerns. Storms are moving at a pretty
good clip now, so flooding looks of lower concern too. When in doubt,
drought. Otherwise, storm activity should be out of the area by mid
evening. High pressure will build on south across the High Plains,
so the rest of the weather through the short term period should be
quiet. Cold high pressure and clouds look to prevail for Tuesday. Cool
upslope east flow should prevail, and as a result, have trimmed tomorrows
highs by a few degrees. This is particularly true across the northeast
counties. Lastly, a freeze warning has been issued for the western
and northwest counties as these cool air prevails, particularly in
the morning hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon May 2 2022

The next chance for storms will be Wednesday. NBM pops were maintained.
The 12Z EC continues to look wet through Thursday. Hopefully this verifies
with the ongoing dusty drought. Beyond that, we will eventually resume
into a WAA pattern with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. The
rest of the forecast was left as is given the short term concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon May 2 2022

A complicated TAF period. Low cigs/vis from stratus/fog creating LIFR
this AM. Some improvement possible to IFR, however, the colder/more
cloudy air mass continues to win over across the area. Wrap around
low cigs are likely to continue into the overnight, w/ non-VFR flight
conditions. Next, the instability axis looks to be narrow this afternoon.
So the best chances of storms (which are likely to be severe) will
be SE of the terminals. A complicated wind pattern too as frontal boundary
continues across the area. Strong post-frontal winds later tonight 25kt.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  36  62  45 /  50   0   0  20
GCK  61  33  62  44 /  40   0   0  10
EHA  69  32  69  47 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  76  34  66  45 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  48  34  60  43 / 100  20   0  20
P28  76  39  65  47 /  80  10   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM
MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-043>045-061>063-074-075-084.

&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
459 AM CDT Mon May 2 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-031000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
459 AM CDT Mon May 2 2022 /359 AM MDT Mon May 2 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop as early as
midday ahead of a compact, intense low pressure system. The
greatest severe weather risk will be very large hail to golf ball
size and an isolated tornado or two. The greatest tornado risk
is expected to be along and east of a Jetmore to Dodge City line,
out to central Kansas roughly along the Highway 50, Highway 54,
and Highway 56 corridors, including the Larned, Kinsley,
Greensburg, Pratt, and Stafford areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Another significant storm system will move out across the Central
Plains Wednesday and Thursday, however much of southwest Kansas is
likely to remain on the cooler side of this system, such that the
severe weather risk will likely be very limited.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters are likely to be needed beginning around midday or
early this afternoon in the Dodge City, Jetmore, Kinsley, Larned,
Greensburg, Pratt, Stafford, and surrounding areas of southwest
into central Kansas.

Umscheid

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