Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Dodge City, KS

421 
WWUS53 KDDC 010120
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
820 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSC007-151-010200-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-220601T0200Z/
Barber KS-Pratt KS-
820 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR BARBER AND SOUTHEASTERN PRATT COUNTIES...

At 820 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Medicine Lodge,
moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Medicine Lodge, Kiowa, Hardtner, Sharon, Sawyer, Hazelton and Isabel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9895 3759 9865 3755 9846 3739 9846
      3738 9835 3700 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 202DEG 19KT 3731 9861 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

SUGDEN

759 
WWUS53 KDDC 010137
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
837 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSC007-151-010147-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-220601T0200Z/
Barber KS-Pratt KS-
837 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR BARBER AND SOUTHEASTERN PRATT
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3700 9895 3759 9865 3755 9846 3739 9846
      3738 9835 3700 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 216DEG 34KT 3744 9849 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
504 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

There is a large amount of uncertainty in how much QPF or rainfall
will occur over the next 24 hours, but the good news is that all
areas will receive measurable rainfall in the DDC forecast area
between midnight and noon Wednesday. A cooler airmass with
increasingly strong 30 kt easterly 850mb layer winds will spread
into western Kansas Tonight, with trajectories leading to a
prolonged period of moist upslope flow overnight. HREF mean cape
values point to a few hundred J/kg above the surface layer, which
points to at least isolated to widespread scattered thunderstorms
possible embedded in the otherwise increasingly widespread
showers, period of rain. Still, wide varying QPF values are shown
from the models including the very robust NAM suite which outputs
up to 2 to 3 times as much rain as any of the other solutions
which - remains well under half an inch at DDC. An overall trend
of increasing higher rainfall amount from northwest to southeast
is the trend with low clouds settling in toward the end of the
precipitation window late Wednesday morning. The most recent Flash
flood guidance looks well higher than any plausible outcomes for
rainfall in the given 3 and 6 hours periods.

Wednesday's highs will be cold but nowhere near records for June
1st. Some areas may not exceed upper 50s without the sun breaking
out. Wednesday night will bring the coolest overall temperatures
of the week as clouds completely clear the region, and winds drop
off to light and variable by early Thursday morning. Of the NBM
components the cooler solutions offer mid to low 40s sound DDC,
and probably even low 40s as one heads west through the Ark
valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

By Thursday the main PV anomaly lifts north into the upper midwest
while surface high pressure and northwest flow aloft overspreads the
region. Models hint at a moist signal on the return flow side of the
surface high, generally southerly trajectories across the western
High Plains, that would be conducive for diurnally driven
thunderstorms over the higher terrain, spreading eastward
nocturnally. This pattern repeats itself with more vigor Friday
and Saturday when much higher dewpoints return north into central
Kansas for a better opportunity of surface based, relatively low
shear convection anywhere in the region. Additionally in the same
timeframe an equatorward moving front might be approaching the
region per the deterministic canadian GFS and ecmwf, perhaps
creating a potential focus for mcs activity lingering into the
days in the next coming week. The potentially wet pattern likely
plays a part in the overall near normal temperature pattern,
which, while exhibiting increasing uncertainty, still appears
capped at the upper 80s in the warmest gefs / eps and cmc grand
ensemble members for Saturday though Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

VFR conditions will prevail tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will
eventually spread northward through the morning hours. MVFR to IFR
conditions will be likely in association with this precipitation and
the eventual development of low cigs. Some improvement is likely by
tomorrow afternoon as the weather disturbance moves away from the terminals.
Winds will be N to NE 10-20 kt through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  62  44  74 /  70  80  20   0
GCK  51  60  42  73 /  70  60  20   0
EHA  51  61  45  72 /  80  50  30  10
LBL  53  62  45  72 /  80  60  30  10
HYS  52  61  44  74 /  40  60  10   0
P28  59  65  50  73 /  90 100  40   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
240 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-011000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
240 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 /140 AM MDT Tue May 31 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There will be chance for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms after 6 pm across extreme southern Barber county.
Hail up to the size of quarters will be possible along with
frequent lightning and periods of heavy rainfall.

Overnight rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms will increase in
coverage across all of southwest and south central Kansas.
Frequent lightning and localized moderate to heavy rainfall will
be the primary hazards from these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Widespread rain showers along with some scattered thunderstorms
can be expected during the day on Wednesday. Widespread
accumulating rainfall of 1/4" to 3/4" will be possible.

Several opportunities for thunderstorms will be possible across
some part of southwest Kansas from Friday night through Monday. A
few of these storms this weekend will be capable of producing gusty
winds, frequent lightning and brief moderate to heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Limited spotter activation may be needed after 6 pm across
southern Barber county.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
718 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

KSZ090-010115-
Barber KS-
718 PM CDT Tue May 31 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Barber
County through 815 PM CDT...

At 718 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles south of Aetna, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Hardtner around 735 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Kiowa and Hazelton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9894 3741 9847 3739 9846 3738 9835
      3700 9835
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 240DEG 49KT 3691 9887

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

LOWE