Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
549 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Approaching shortwave trough was centered near Clayton, New Mexico
at midday. Strong south winds were in progress, gusting 30-40 mph,
assisting in transporting a modest increase in moisture/instablity
northward, per altocumulus and surface dewpoints near 60. Several
CAMs and notably the 12z NAM are quite robust with convective
development around 4 pm, as the shortwave's forcing for ascent
interacts with surface convergence along the lee trough/pseudo
dryline. Timing of shortwave forcing is well focused and appears
near ideal to link up with maximum heating, which should allow for
scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorms to develop across the
CWA around 4 pm. Per coordination with SPC, the plan is to keep
5% marginal wind probability (as opposed to increasing to 15% slight
risk category) for the 1630z outlook. With only modest
instability (CAPE to near 1500 J/kg), weak midlevel
winds/unimpressive shear, feel severe caliber gusts (58+ mph) are
low probability. That said, inverted V profiles, a well mixed
boundary layer, and strong ambient synoptic winds, many cells will
produce outflow winds of 40-50 mph. Will need to monitor for
upscale multicellular growth and cool pool generation which would
increase the wind threat. Can't rule out a marginally severe hail
event or two, but the tornado risk is near zero. Increased pops to
50% this afternoon and this evening, but will increase to the
likely category if radar trends support it. Outside of convection,
strong south winds will continue to gust 30-40 mph into the
evening hours.

Convection is expected to propogate eastward across at least
portions of the CWA through late tonight, with forcing likely to
keep some activity going even after sunset. Parent shortwave is
expected to be exiting into eastern Kansas, with strong subsidence
behind it clearing the sky rapidly by sunrise Friday. Lows
tonight upper 50s northwest to mid 60s southeast.

The much simpler, sunny/hot/dry forecast resumes Friday as forcing
is lost and the atmosphere warms. 12z GFS shows about 5C of
warming at 850 mb, supporting the return of lower to mid 90s.
12z MOS guidance appears too cool, and was discounted. Near full
sunshine is expected Friday afternoon, with a marked reduction in
south winds, down to 10-20 mph.

Models including 12z NAM remain consistent forecasting some flavor
of MCS across Nebraska Friday night/early Saturday. A strong low
level jet is expected to feed this convection, with SWly 850 mb
winds increasing to 50-60 mph over SW KS. Kept some minimal pops
near I-70 early Saturday morning in case some of this activity
clips the CWA, but clearly most of SW KS will remain dry. The
strong boundary layer mixing will deter radiational cooling
strongly, forcing temperatures to stay well into the 60s Saturday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Key Messages:
-The forecast through at least next Wednesday is dry. Drought
 conditions will continue to worsen and expand.
-Significant late season heatwave is expected Sunday through
 Tuesday with near record temperatures.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor update released today shows
degradation of the D1-D4 drought categories across SW KS, with
exceptional drought (D4) across an even larger portion of the SW KS
CWA. There are no signs of any meaningful rainfall opportunities
through this forecast (through at least 21 Sept), and the drought is
expected to continue to fester.

The heat will begin to rebuild Saturday, with models showing
another 4-6C of warming at 850 mb, supporting mid 90s in the
afternoon. Opted to go a few degrees above MOS for Saturday as
suggested by NBM.

Beginning Sunday, another strong upper high is expected to take
root over the central and southern plains. 12z ECMWF depicts this
next "heat dome" to remain stationary and slowly intensify through
Tuesday. As such, still expecting a 3-day stretch of unseasonably
warm mornings and hot afternoons Sunday through Tuesday, with both
record maxes and record high minimums likely. Sunrise temperatures
near 70 from the NBM were accepted, but continued to load at least
the 75% percentile of the NBM's max T grids. This continues the
forecast of afternoon temperatures in the 100-103 range all three
days Sunday through Tuesday. Given the desiccated soils, breezy
SWly downslope winds, and subsidence from the upper high, this
forecast may easily not be hot enough. Indeed, the 95% percentile
bin of the NBM shows 105-106 sprinkled across the CWA each of
these days. Residents are encouraged to prepare for this 3 day
late season heatwave, with cumulative heat stress impacts on
livestock/vegetation and pets/workers outdoors.

12z ECMWF and ensembles show continuity, forecasting the next
strong cold front to arrive around Wednesday evening. Temperatures
may really soar ahead of this boundary Wednesday, but confident we
will see a significant break from the heat next Thursday. Models
are very resistant to developing rainfall with this frontal
passage. Instead, 12z ECMWF shows a subtropical moisture plume
centered near the Four Corners, west of Kansas, next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Thunderstorms will be around all the airport terminals through 03Z
and could be as late as 06Z for HYS. Storms will have the
capability of producing winds as high as 40 kts. The storms should
exit the area after 06Z and skies will clear with a high pressure
moving in from Colorado. Surface winds will also diminish after
06Z and should be 12 kts or less through the day on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  94  68  96 /  60   0  10  10
GCK  59  91  65  94 /  30   0  10  10
EHA  60  93  63  95 /  10   0  10  10
LBL  62  94  65  96 /  40   0  10  10
HYS  61  89  66  93 /  70   0  20  10
P28  66  94  69  95 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
134 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160645-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
134 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 /1234 AM MDT Thu Sep 15 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Likely storm development near the Hwy 83 corridor by mid to late
afternoon Thursday and progressing east to northeast through the
evening hours before diminishing towards sunset. Marginally severe
storms with damaging winds over 50 mph and frequent lightning the
main threats. Wind shear looks to be on the weaker side less than
20-25 kts and upper level support looks to be minimal as well.
Elevated storms expect with DCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg expect
along with modest lapse rates to help aid in any strong winds
during this isolated event. Widespread coverage is not expected at
this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Warming trend over the weekend and into early next week with mid
to upper 90s to breaking the 100 degree mark for Monday and
Tuesday. Back to more seasonal temperatures mid to end of next
week to the 70s and low 80s with 40s overnight behind a Wednesday
cold front that will switch winds to the north to northeast and
increasing precipitation chances as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
642 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSZ063-076-077-160030-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Haskell KS-
642 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Finney,
northern Gray and northeastern Haskell Counties through 730 PM CDT...

At 642 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Charleston, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Charleston around 650 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Ingalls and
Cimarron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 10064 3788 10078 3806 10042 3772 10024
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 245DEG 17KT 3782 10060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER

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