Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Dodge City, KS

086 
WWUS53 KDDC 152247
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
547 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSC081-175-152315-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-220915T2315Z/
Seward KS-Haskell KS-
547 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN SEWARD AND SOUTHERN HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 547 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Satanta, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Sublette, Satanta and Tice. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 10105 3760 10071 3740 10065 3739 10065
      3733 10063 3732 10063 3729 10102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 258DEG 10KT 3737 10094 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

TURNER

696 
WWUS53 KDDC 152302
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSC081-175-152315-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-220915T2315Z/
Seward KS-Haskell KS-
602 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN SEWARD AND SOUTHERN HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 602 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Satanta, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sublette, Satanta and Tice. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3747 10105 3760 10071 3740 10065 3739 10065
      3733 10063 3732 10063 3730 10095
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 257DEG 12KT 3738 10088 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.25 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

TURNER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
150 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Friday night)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Approaching shortwave trough was centered near Clayton, New Mexico
at midday. Strong south winds were in progress, gusting 30-40 mph,
assisting in transporting a modest increase in moisture/instablity
northward, per altocumulus and surface dewpoints near 60. Several
CAMs and notably the 12z NAM are quite robust with convective
development around 4 pm, as the shortwave's forcing for ascent
interacts with surface convergence along the lee trough/pseudo
dryline. Timing of shortwave forcing is well focused and appears
near ideal to link up with maximum heating, which should allow for
scattered to perhaps numerous thunderstorms to develop across the
CWA around 4 pm. Per coordination with SPC, the plan is to keep
5% marginal wind probability (as opposed to increasing to 15% slight
risk category) for the 1630z outlook. With only modest
instability (CAPE to near 1500 J/kg), weak midlevel
winds/unimpressive shear, feel severe caliber gusts (58+ mph) are
low probability. That said, inverted V profiles, a well mixed
boundary layer, and strong ambient synoptic winds, many cells will
produce outflow winds of 40-50 mph. Will need to monitor for
upscale multicellular growth and cool pool generation which would
increase the wind threat. Can't rule out a marginally severe hail
event or two, but the tornado risk is near zero. Increased pops to
50% this afternoon and this evening, but will increase to the
likely category if radar trends support it. Outside of convection,
strong south winds will continue to gust 30-40 mph into the
evening hours.

Convection is expected to propogate eastward across at least
portions of the CWA through late tonight, with forcing likely to
keep some activity going even after sunset. Parent shortwave is
expected to be exiting into eastern Kansas, with strong subsidence
behind it clearing the sky rapidly by sunrise Friday. Lows
tonight upper 50s northwest to mid 60s southeast.

The much simpler, sunny/hot/dry forecast resumes Friday as forcing
is lost and the atmosphere warms. 12z GFS shows about 5C of
warming at 850 mb, supporting the return of lower to mid 90s.
12z MOS guidance appears too cool, and was discounted. Near full
sunshine is expected Friday afternoon, with a marked reduction in
south winds, down to 10-20 mph.

Models including 12z NAM remain consistent forecasting some flavor
of MCS across Nebraska Friday night/early Saturday. A strong low
level jet is expected to feed this convection, with SWly 850 mb
winds increasing to 50-60 mph over SW KS. Kept some minimal pops
near I-70 early Saturday morning in case some of this activity
clips the CWA, but clearly most of SW KS will remain dry. The
strong boundary layer mixing will deter radiational cooling
strongly, forcing temperatures to stay well into the 60s Saturday
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Key Messages:
-The forecast through at least next Wednesday is dry. Drought
 conditions will continue to worsen and expand.
-Significant late season heatwave is expected Sunday through
 Tuesday with near record temperatures.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor update released today shows
degradation of the D1-D4 drought categories across SW KS, with
exceptional drought (D4) across an even larger portion of the SW KS
CWA. There are no signs of any meaningful rainfall opportunities
through this forecast (through at least 21 Sept), and the drought is
expected to continue to fester.

The heat will begin to rebuild Saturday, with models showing
another 4-6C of warming at 850 mb, supporting mid 90s in the
afternoon. Opted to go a few degrees above MOS for Saturday as
suggested by NBM.

Beginning Sunday, another strong upper high is expected to take
root over the central and southern plains. 12z ECMWF depicts this
next "heat dome" to remain stationary and slowly intensify through
Tuesday. As such, still expecting a 3-day stretch of unseasonably
warm mornings and hot afternoons Sunday through Tuesday, with both
record maxes and record high minimums likely. Sunrise temperatures
near 70 from the NBM were accepted, but continued to load at least
the 75% percentile of the NBM's max T grids. This continues the
forecast of afternoon temperatures in the 100-103 range all three
days Sunday through Tuesday. Given the desiccated soils, breezy
SWly downslope winds, and subsidence from the upper high, this
forecast may easily not be hot enough. Indeed, the 95% percentile
bin of the NBM shows 105-106 sprinkled across the CWA each of
these days. Residents are encouraged to prepare for this 3 day
late season heatwave, with cumulative heat stress impacts on
livestock/vegetation and pets/workers outdoors.

12z ECMWF and ensembles show continuity, forecasting the next
strong cold front to arrive around Wednesday evening. Temperatures
may really soar ahead of this boundary Wednesday, but confident we
will see a significant break from the heat next Thursday. Models
are very resistant to developing rainfall with this frontal
passage. Instead, 12z ECMWF shows a subtropical moisture plume
centered near the Four Corners, west of Kansas, next Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1011 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Outside of any convective impacts to aviation, VFR is expected to
continue to prevail through this TAF cycle, with varying amounts
of midlevel cloud cover. Strong south winds will again impacts all
airports through 00z Fri, gusting 30-35 kts. High confidence of
scattered convection developing from near LBL to near GCK to near
HYS around 21z Thu, then propogating slowly eastward through
06z Fri. Confidence is high enough to include convective TEMPO
groups at all airports. Primary risk from thunderstorms will be
outflow winds to 45-50 kts, and brief heavy rainfall. A rapid
return to VFR/SKC is expected around 12z Fri, as the parent
shortwave exits eastward into eastern Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  90  62  94  68 /  50  50   0  10
GCK  90  59  91  65 /  50  30   0  10
EHA  90  60  93  63 /  20  10   0  10
LBL  90  62  94  65 /  50  40   0  10
HYS  90  61  89  66 /  50  50   0  20
P28  90  66  94  69 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
134 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-160645-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
134 AM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022 /1234 AM MDT Thu Sep 15 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Likely storm development near the Hwy 83 corridor by mid to late
afternoon Thursday and progressing east to northeast through the
evening hours before diminishing towards sunset. Marginally severe
storms with damaging winds over 50 mph and frequent lightning the
main threats. Wind shear looks to be on the weaker side less than
20-25 kts and upper level support looks to be minimal as well.
Elevated storms expect with DCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg expect
along with modest lapse rates to help aid in any strong winds
during this isolated event. Widespread coverage is not expected at
this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Warming trend over the weekend and into early next week with mid
to upper 90s to breaking the 100 degree mark for Monday and
Tuesday. Back to more seasonal temperatures mid to end of next
week to the 70s and low 80s with 40s overnight behind a Wednesday
cold front that will switch winds to the north to northeast and
increasing precipitation chances as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
444 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSZ031-045-046-152230-
Rush KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
444 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Ness,
northwestern Rush and southwestern Ellis Counties through 530 PM
CDT...

At 443 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
McCracken, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Liebenthal, Schoenchen, Antonino, Hays, Munjor and Toulon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9910 3850 9949 3864 9966 3870 9961
      3870 9960 3871 9960 3894 9937
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 227DEG 18KT 3863 9952

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
445 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSZ074-075-084>086-152230-
Seward KS-Stanton KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Morton KS-
445 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Seward,
eastern Morton, southern Grant, Stevens and southeastern Stanton
Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 445 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles north of Feterita, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail. Areas of
         blowing dust will reduce visibility.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Moscow and Cave.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3702 10162 3730 10179 3763 10122 3740 10109
      3739 10109 3739 10108 3722 10098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 242DEG 24KT 3730 10155

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
450 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSZ064-078-152215-
Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
450 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Ford
and southeastern Hodgeman Counties through 515 PM CDT...

At 449 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Wright, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated. This storm has a history of producing one
         half inch hail at Dodge City, along wind wind gusts near 50
         mph.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Jetmore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3779 9985 3786 10006 3817 9999 3804 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 201DEG 16KT 3790 9993

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
515 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSZ064-078-152300-
Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
515 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Ford
and central Hodgeman Counties through 600 PM CDT...

At 515 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jetmore, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Jetmore and Hanston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3818 9962 3788 9985 3796 10010 3826 10005
      3826 9998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 203DEG 11KT 3799 9992

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
528 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSZ075-076-085>087-152315-
Seward KS-Meade KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
528 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Seward,
southeastern Grant, northwestern Meade, northeastern Stevens and
southern Haskell Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 528 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Satanta, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph. Areas of blowing dust may
         reduce visibility.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Sublette around 545 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Tice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3726 10104 3746 10114 3761 10075 3727 10060
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 248DEG 31KT 3738 10099

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
531 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

KSZ078-080-088-152300-
Clark KS-Kiowa KS-Ford KS-
531 PM CDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Ford,
southwestern Kiowa and northeastern Clark Counties through 600 PM
CDT...

At 531 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Clark State Lake, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Bucklin around 550 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Mullinville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3745 9980 3768 9959 3748 9934 3738 9953
      3738 9954 3737 9954 3732 9965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 239DEG 17KT 3742 9964

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER