Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
237 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible late this
afternoon into this evening as a series of weak perturbations eject
northeast out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains of eastern
Colorado/ Western Kansas, interacting with a stalled surface trough
axis bisecting southwest Kansas into central Kansas. Despite a
relatively weak flow aloft and weaker deep layer shear in general,
ample instability (SBCAPE values in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg) and
steepening lapse rates will set the stage for potential thunderstorm
development in vicinity of a low level convergence axis associated
with the stalled surface trough. Outside of an ongoing festering
band of showers/embedded thunderstorms in extreme southwest
Kansas, any initiation closer to the surface trough axis based on
CAMs looks to be generally after 21Z as capping erodes, mainly
north of highway 50. Additionally, thunderstorms developing in
eastern Colorado late this afternoon may eventually spread east-
northeastward into portions of extreme western Kansas later in the
evening. With PW values in excess of 1.5 inches, localized flooding
cannot be ruled out with the strongest storms.

Slightly cooler temperatures are likely tonight as a weak cold front
pushes southeast into western Kansas. Lows are expected down into
the 60s(F) in west central and portions of southwest Kansas with the
lower 70s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. Temperatures
will not be quite as hot for much of the area Thursday as a weak
cold front pushes southeast across much of southwest Kansas late
tonight before stalling out Thursday morning. Should see highs
holding to the 90s(F) in west central and southwest Kansas with
100F still possible in south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Thunderstorm chances linger into Thursday night/Friday, but the
focus shifts a little southward as an approaching cold front is
projected to stall out closer to the Oklahoma border by Thursday
morning. Ample instability and diurnal heating resulting in
steepening lapse rates will be the order of the day once again,
increasing the potential for thunderstorms in vicinity of the
boundary toward late afternoon/evening as another in a series of
small upper level shortwaves ejected out of the Colorado Rockies
into the high plains. The pattern is then expected to dry out a bit
into the weekend as medium range models indicate upper level ridging
building in across the Intermountain West, then shifting eastward
into the Western High Plains. A few storms cannot be ruled out in
extreme southwest Kansas Friday evening as a southeasterly upslope
flow sets up north of a near stationary frontal boundary projected
to curve up generally from the Texas Panhandle into southeast
Colorado.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are likely Friday as surface high
pressure moves through the Northern Plains, reinforcing a slightly
cooler air mass across western Kansas within east-northeasterly
upslope flow. Widespread highs in the 90s(F) can be expected with
temperatures once again pushing 100F Sunday as ridging aloft moves
out of the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1102 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late
this afternoon through the early overnight period, potentially
affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites. Otherwise, mainly VFR
conditions will continue through early Thursday. Variable winds
around 5 to 15kt are likely to persist across much of the area
through this evening as a surface low remains anchored in
southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  93  68  95 /  50  20  30  10
GCK  69  91  67  93 /  50  20  30  10
EHA  69  92  66  93 /  40  20  40  10
LBL  70  95  68  95 /  40  20  30  10
HYS  70  92  68  92 /  50  10  30   0
P28  75 100  72  96 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-046-065-066-
081-090.

&&

SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
446 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-071000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
446 AM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022 /346 AM MDT Wed Jul 6 2022/

...A heat advisory is in effect for today for parts of
southwestern Kansas...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Temperatures this afternoon from 100 to 105, along with dewpoint
values in the lower 60s, will lead to dangerous heat indices of
105 or higher. See the latest statement (TOPNPWDDC) for details.

There is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
These storms could contain winds of 50 to 60 mph and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Temperatures Thursday afternoon over south central Kansas from
100 to 105, along with dewpoint values in the lower 60s, will
lead to dangerous heat indices of 105 or higher.

There is a chance of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon and evening, especially south and east of Dodge
City. These storms could contain winds of 50 to 60 mph and small
hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

KSZ030-031-045-046-062230-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Ness,
eastern Trego, northern Rush and Ellis Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 400 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Trego Center to near Liebenthal. Movement
was north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Pfeifer around 420 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Ogallah,
Antonino, Munjor, Hays, Toulon, Victoria, Catherine and Emmeram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3872 9904 3845 9929 3869 9989 3913 9984
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 190DEG 17KT 3886 9984 3864 9930

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
421 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

KSZ064-077-078-062145-
Gray KS-Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
421 PM CDT Wed Jul 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Ford,
southwestern Hodgeman and northeastern Gray Counties through 445 PM
CDT...

At 421 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Cimarron, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Howell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3786 10041 3800 10031 3800 10024 3792 9997
      3769 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 300DEG 12KT 3791 10028

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

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