Severe Thunderstorm Warning 119, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
650 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

This Sunday mid-afternoon featured a decaying outflow boundary that
pushed southwest earlier in the day, which stunted the warm-up
across portions of southwest and west central Kansas generally north
and east of a Dighton to Dodge City to Pratt line. Temperatures
finally touched 90F at Hays and Great Bend, but with lower 70s
dewpoints in these areas, the Heat Index still pushed upper 90s to
close to 100 degrees with still a couple more hours of decent
heating left. Farther west across far southwest Kansas, temperatures
were in the 100 to 102F territory with similar Heat Indices given
the lower dewpoint temperatures.

In the near term, we will be watching the convective evolution
across southeastern Colorado, which was already underway northwest
of Springfield, CO. It is expected that one or two of these storms
will survive into far southwest/west central Kansas this evening, so
we have some 15 to 20 POPs going out in the west across a fairly
small region. Any surface-based convection should dissolve not long
after sunset as they track northeast. Given the high temperature-
dewpoint spreads, damaging (but very local) straight line wind would
be the greatest thunderstorm risk. The rest of the night will
feature a very warm southwest wind, and with the southwest wind 15
to 20 mph much of the night, this will keep temperatures from
falling much below 80 degrees most locations.

The warm morning will set the stage for a rapid warm-up Monday
morning with temperatures likely exceeding 90 degrees most locations
by 9 or 10 AM CDT. This certainly looks to be the hottest day for a
large area of southwest and west central Kansas so far this
(meteorological) summer...as widespread 102 to 106F afternoon
temperatures are expected on the strong southwest winds. The strong
southwest downslope momentum will help clear out any remaining low
level moisture, so heat indices should not be exceedingly worrisome.
In fact, just about all locations will most likely see heat indices
at least a couple degrees lower than the actual air temperature.
Regardless, we will go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory up in the
northern counties along I-70 where air temperature forecast high of
106-108F is forecast, yielding a Heat Index around 105F.

A weak wind convergence axis in vicinity of the leeside trough will
support the development of late afternoon/early evening surface-
based storms, mainly northwest of a Liberal to Garden City to
Dighton line. Again, the severe weather risk, if any, would be in
the form of damaging straight line wind given the extreme
temperature-dewpoint spread of around 50-55F.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Previous forecast thinking was that Tuesday and Wednesday would be a
pleasant relief from the heat, but the forecast cold front will now
be slower and weaker, resulting in most areas only seeing a pullback
in afternoon temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday of 10 degrees
or less, off of tomorrow's very hot day.  The front on Tuesday will
likely stall out just north of the DDC CWA across/just north of the
I-70 corridor. This will be the focus for evening thunderstorm
development, and the highest POPs Tuesday Night will be up along I-
70 with some 30 POPs up in that region. The thunderstorm activity
along the front late Tuesday night should be enough to help drive
the polar front farther south into southwest Kansas, but the front's
integrity will be competing with increasing 500mb heights thanks to
another building high across Oklahoma east into the lower-mid
Mississippi Valley. Regardless, wherever the front hangs out late
Wednesday should be the best location for another round of at least
loosely organized thunderstorm activity across western/central
Kansas. By Thursday, the polar front will likely lose much of its
integrity, as only the GFS model wants to convect along the front's
remnants whereas the ECMWF and Canadian GDPS are much less ambitious
about convection along what's left of the front on Thursday/Thursday
Night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

High based thunderstorms near Syracuse, with enough rotation for
supercell characteristics, may present a localized damaging with
risk as they move northeast through the remainder of the evening.
The best chance for thunderstorms impacting one of our local
terminals of responsibility would be at GCK in the next couple of
hours and then near HYS by around 10 pm to 1 am or so. Even so, no
widespread outflow is expected, but rather a more localized 60 mph
wind threat with more scattered lightning/cb possible elsewhere.
Included TEMPO thunder in TAFS for GCK/HYS and only at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  79 105  76 100 /  20   0  10   0
GCK  74 106  75  98 /  20  10  10   0
EHA  74 104  73 101 /  10   0  10   0
LBL  77 103  74 101 /  10   0  20   0
HYS  74 107  78  96 /  20   0  10  10
P28  79 104  77  97 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-
063>066-076>081-085>090.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ030-031.

&&

SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
506 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131015-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
506 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022 /406 AM MDT Sun Jun 12 2022/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

...Heat advisory is in effect for this afternoon and evening for
much of central and southwest Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

There is a very small chance of an evening thunderstorm today.
If a storm develops then very large hail could occur. The best
chance of storms is across west central Kansas.

A heat advisory is in effect for today for much of central
and southwest Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

A few severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon with
large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few storm spotters may be needed across west central Kansas
after 5 pm today.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
629 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

KSZ075-085-086-130015-
Seward KS-Stevens KS-Grant KS-
629 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Seward,
south central Grant and Stevens Counties through 715 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hugoton, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Hugoton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 10156 3718 10155 3743 10128 3727 10089
      3700 10138 3700 10140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 229DEG 11KT 3711 10140

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

TURNER