Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
559 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

A weak area of high pressure at the surface will move across
western Kansas today. RAP and NAM have been in fairly good
agreement throughout the morning with convection being possible
west and northwest of this weak anticyclone given late day heating
and improving 0-1km moisture convergence in these locations after
3-4pm. Should any isolated storm develop in these areas they will
be capable of becoming severe with large hail being the initial
hazard. 0-6km shear increasing late day and given mid level lapse
range it appears that hail up to 2” will be possible from any
discrete supercell that may develop. A better chance for
convection will accompany an upper level disturbance which at 17z
appears to be located over northern Utah and was located near the
RAP right entrance region of the 250mb jet. Following the RAP
250mb right entrance region/weak 400mb PVU this disturbance will
move into northeast Colorado this evening and then cross western
Kansas during the overnight hours. The enhanced lift develop ahead
of this upper wave combined with the improving 0-1km moisture
convergence and mid level instability will provide a better
opportunity for convection over eastern Colorado after 00z
Wednesday with these storms then tracking east across southwest
Kansas overnight. Risk of large hail will be possible early this
Tuesday evening with these developing storms also but after sunset
the risk should begin to shift to strong gusty winds and heavy
rainfall. These storms that may produce periods of heavy rainfall
are currently expected to track over areas that have not received
much rainfall from the past several storm systems so the flooding
currently does not appear to be an issue tonight. Ponding of water
in poor drainage areas can not be ruled out.

Convection will be tapering off late tonight/early Tuesday as an
upper level trough exits western Kansas. As this upper level
trough exits western Kansas our next upper level trough/500mb vort
lobe will move across Wyoming and begin to approach western Kansas
late day. A moist southeasterly flow will also return by late day
ahead of this approaching upper wave and given the
heating/instability forecast by 00z Wednesday the chance for
thunderstorms will be on the increase late day/early Tuesday
night. The better chances for afternoon storms will be across
eastern Colorado and northwest Kansas with these storms then
spreading eastward across all of western Kansas early Tuesday
night. At this time will also favor the best chance for convection
to be located north and east of Dodge City given the improving
850mb to 700mb frontogenesis near the northern edge of the 8 to
12C temperature gradient and current forecast track of the 500mb
vort lobe. At this time Hail greater than 2 inches will also be a
concern, especially early in the event, given the 0-6km shear and
mid level instability. This hail risk should decrease through the
evening with heavy rain and gusty winds becoming the main hazards.
Later shifts will need to monitor the heavy rain potential from
these storms Tuesday night given the rainfall that some locations
have received over the past few days.

Highs 80s are expected on Tuesday based on the cooler 900mb to
850mb temperatures forecast from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

On Wednesday an upper level ridge will begin to build across the
Rockies as the next upper level disturbance begins to work its way
into the Central Rockies. The ECMWF does hint that a few weaker
upper level disturbances will be present late day across New
Mexico and/or the Texas panhandle. Given late day instability and
any subtle wave rippling eastwards towards southwest Kansas could
easily result in some scattered thunderstorms near the Oklahoma
border. Any storm that does develop will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall given the high precipitable water forecast south of
Dodge City.

As for temperatures on Wednesday it looks like highs will range
from the mid 70s to lower 80s based on the location of the surface
boundary south of the Oklahoma border, 850mb temperature
forecasts at 00z Thursday and east northeast winds advecting
slightly cooler temperatures into southwest Kansas.

Thursday and Friday the upper level ridge over the Rockies will
build slowly eastward into the Western High Plains as an upper
high develops just south of the four corners area. Several upper
level disturbances will move through this upper ridge and move out
into the central plain and with each upper level disturbance
there will be a chance for thunderstorms across western Kansas.
Timing of any subtle upper wave late week will be difficult to pin
down but at this time it appears that these waves will cross the
Central Plains late day/overnight each day. Also given the slow
eastward progression of the upper ridge the track of the Thursday
system appears to bring with it the best chance for widespread
precipitation to western Kansas while the Friday/early Saturday
upper level system appears to focus the better lift across central
Kansas.

In addition to the increasing chances for precipitation on
Thursday given the passage of the upper level trough…a cold
front will also move south across western Kansas late day/Thursday
night. This will usher in some cooler air into southwest Kansas
on Friday but these cool temperatures (70s/80s) will be brief
given the westerly downslope flow developing and warming 850mb
temperatures forecast across western kansas this upcoming weekend
period and early next week. Highs in the mid to upper 90s not out
of the question on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

A complex of storms will be exiting eastern Colorado and going
into western Kansas this evening and thunderstorms will be
possible for all airport terminals after 01Z. Tempos have been
included for generally 03-09Z as we could see two rounds of storms
moving in from Colorado into western Kansas during the overnight.
The thunderstorms could produce brief downburst winds of over 50
kts. Most of the activity should subside by 12Z and cloud ceilings
should generally become VFR through 00Z Tuesday evening. Winds in
general should stay 12 kts or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  83  59  79 /  80  20  50  10
GCK  60  81  59  77 /  80  30  40  10
EHA  59  79  59  78 /  40  30  60  20
LBL  62  80  61  80 /  60  30  50  10
HYS  60  84  60  77 /  70  20  60  10
P28  65  82  64  80 /  40  20  50  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Tatro

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070830-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
328 AM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022 /228 AM MDT Mon Jun 6 2022/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
south central Kansas, southwest Kansas, and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern
Colorado and west central Kansas this afternoon, spreading east
as the evening and early overnight hours progress. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.
An isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to be possible each
evening into the overnight hours through Thursday. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed late this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Kansas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
915 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE GRAY              38.17N 99.61W
06/06/2022  M62 MPH          HODGEMAN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GT

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
931 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

KSZ078>080-070300-
Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
931 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Ford,
northwestern Kiowa and southwestern Edwards Counties through 1000 PM
CDT...

At 930 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Windhorst, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Offerle around 935 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3777 9969 3791 9963 3791 9957 3793 9957
      3790 9930 3761 9945
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 293DEG 8KT 3783 9960

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
940 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             BURDETT                 38.19N 99.53W
06/06/2022  M4.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA POST WITH 3.5 TO 3.75 IN HAIL
            MEASURED.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
946 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

KSZ084-085-070330-
Stevens KS-Morton KS-
946 PM CDT Mon Jun 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Morton and
southwestern Stevens Counties through 1030 PM CDT...

At 946 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elkhart, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wilburton around 1000 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Rolla and Feterita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 10192 3711 10195 3723 10145 3700 10139
TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 258DEG 19KT 3702 10183

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

SPRINGER